Barratt Developments Share Discussion Threads

[the original goldbug] 07/12/2023 16:16

Most people don’t understand the cash flow dynamics of the house builders.

Free cash actually grows during bear periods as they go on a buying strike.

One of the most misunderstood sectors in the market.

[kanwar] 07/12/2023 16:09

Thank you for putting me straight.

[lafiamma] 07/12/2023 15:44

MRF, I have access to some data which I'm not prepared to share here, for various reasons, but you can see this in publicly available data such as from TwentyEA. Note here the pink line for this year being below comparable years until the last 4-6 weeks when it's held up unlike previous years which have fallen away once past mid-Oct:

www.propertyindustryeye.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Graph-6.png

[beckers2008] 07/12/2023 14:25

What have I been telling the village idiot 'Sikhthetech'.
It no listen, especially on TLY now 4.8p on the Bid, lol, just lol!

"UK house prices rise amid property shortage" - Halifax... No, really, lol, just lol!

""UK house prices rose for the second month in a row in November, boosted by a shortage of properties, according to figures released by Halifax on Thursday.

House prices rose 0.5% on the month following a 1.2% jump in October and after six consecutive declines, leaving the price of a home at £283,615.

On a yearly basis, prices were down 1% in November, following a 3.1% drop in October.

Kim Kinnaird, director of Halifax Mortgages, said: "The resilience seen in house prices during 2023 continues to be underpinned by a shortage of properties available, rather than any significant strengthening of buyer demand.
That said, recent figures for mortgage approvals suggest a slight uptick in activity levels, which is likely as a result of an improving picture on affordability for homebuyers. With mortgage rates starting to ease slightly, this may be leading to increased buyer confidence, seeing people more inclined to push ahead with their home purchases.
However, the economic conditions remain uncertain, making it hard to assess the extent to which market activity will be maintained. Other pressures - like inflation, the broader cost of living, overall employment rates and affordability - mean we expect to see downward pressure on house prices into next year."

Imogen Pattison, assistant economist at Capital Economics, said: "The second consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in November mirrored the increase in the Nationwide index, confirming that house prices have not only stabilised, but are rising.""

[my retirement fund] 07/12/2023 13:42

Lafiamma, care to offer citations on your claims. Real world sales data lags all other data since the completions we are seeing reflected at the land registry reflects only sales that were agreed back in the spring and actually managed to make it to completion. When I see baseless remarks like this, particularly Kanwars for example, you have to shudder at the fact they are even involved in this sector of the stock exchange.

[sikhthetech] 07/12/2023 13:04

MRF,

"I predict the spring will look particularly savage. Infact for those who are cash buyers, the spring may prove particularly exciting."

Exactly. You just need to look at the auctions and it's obvious what is happening.


The fact that 137 properties were sold at an average 68% loss says a lot.

[lafiamma] 07/12/2023 12:56

Zoopla data was gathered during the month of October, since mid-late October I've noticed a decent pickup in sales rates and pricing data (certainly vs seasonal norms). Obviously I'm not claiming to know more than Zoopla, just pointing out that the 5.5% reduction is a somewhat lagged indicator...

[my retirement fund] 07/12/2023 12:42

House prices are not up. The average transaction value rose. That rose because the record falls in lower transaction values pushes that value up. Rest assured, the median value of UK house prices continues to fall as evidenced by Zooplas average asking price reduction values for reduced house prices which are now at a recent record of 5.5%. I predict the spring will look particularly savage. Infact for those who are cash buyers, the spring may prove particularly exciting.

[kanwar] 07/12/2023 10:40

House prices up again.. bodes well. Interest rate drop to come, eventually.

[lafiamma] 05/12/2023 15:58

Marshall Wace continue to increase their short position as the stock breaks out to 12 month highs, now up to 1.7% of the share capital...

[tornado12] 01/12/2023 09:54

There has been a decent share price increase in last month. With peak in interest rates the sentiment maybe at least levelled out for HB. GLA

[tornado12] 21/11/2023 17:46

I am a little surprised on the share price increase over the last weeks. Not complaining as I’m in positive returns and was a divestment for my portfolio. Maybe some positive news to help us along after tomorrow’s autumn update. Will add into 2024 if the market and the price feels right. GLA

[salver2] 21/11/2023 17:00

Tornado 12 is still waiting for the 300-350 range!

[888icb] 21/11/2023 12:44

One month ago BDEV closed at 392.5p. Today it is nearly back to 500p so quite a month for anyone who picked the bottom and indeed all shareholders.

[beckers2008] 16/11/2023 10:04

Sikhthetech and sunshine Today,

You have not posted for nearly a month!
We miss your informative advice, lol!

Please come back, lol!

I wonder why you are not contributing?
Someone's got to keep the bad news flowing...
Are you spent? Lol, just lol!

[sunshine today] 19/10/2023 12:10

Agreed the game of throwing money away is over.

Any attempt just pushes up the cost of money.


A kid of 3 understands after a 60 year boom you can easily have a 30 year bust.

The bulls have yet to grasp that

[sikhthetech] 19/10/2023 12:05

Tornado,

"There is going to be a strong battle ground on housing within the next election debate with massive shortages and missing affordable."

Govn can't afford it.
Sept inflation figure came in at 6.7%. That figure is used for rises in Pensions & welfare payments. Although Pensions have a triple lock and so will be higher.

That's a massive increase in govn spending.

Taxes will have to rise and/or deep cuts.

Given it's the GE next year, there will be a battle for votes. I suspect we'll see a lot of promises from both sides, which they know they will find difficult to keep.

[my retirement fund] 19/10/2023 10:55

4 million just dumped

[sunshine today] 19/10/2023 07:43

Yep decades , when house prices hit 3 times average income down from 6 -12 today then could be a good investment.

[tornado12] 19/10/2023 07:14

There is going to be a strong battle ground on housing within the next election debate with massive shortages and missing affordable. Things will change in a positive way, but need to wait some time. Fortunately BDEV is well placed in cash and management perspective. Patience is the key, but this is going sub 400p........During next year I will add with my dividend funds, but targeting 300-350 range GLA

[sikhthetech] 18/10/2023 15:25

Help to Buy ending impacting HBs. Affordability still severely impacting housing market.
TU not good.


From BDEV update:

Trading Update:
"In the period our net private reservations(2) per average week were 169 (FY23: 188) and net private reservations per active outlet per average week were 0.46 (FY23: 0.55). During the period sales to the private rental sector and registered providers of social housing contributed 0.04 (FY23: 0.04) to the reservation rate. (Appendix 1).

Reservation activity has continued to reflect the mortgage challenges faced by potential homebuyers, as well as the absence of Help to Buy reservation activity which accounted for 12% of private reservations in the prior year period. We have continued to focus on driving revenue through multi-unit sales to the private rental and affordable housing sectors and the continued use of sales incentives for private customers.

Reflecting the slower reservation rate, our total forward sales (including JVs) as at 8 October 2023 totalled 9,221 homes (9 October 2022: 13,314 homes) at a value of GBP2,362.0m (9 October 2022: GBP3,603.1m). (Appendices 2 and 3)."

[porsche1945] 18/10/2023 15:13

2008 through 2013 share price coming up…..check out the charts for where this going, oh dear. Another dividend stock cut in half then cut in half again. Gotta love the U.K. indexes for capital destruction😂😂😂

[yf23_1] 18/10/2023 09:40

Not as bad as I thought it would be but this shrinking market may last a lot longer than envisaged.

[sunshine today] 18/10/2023 07:21

ASK ŶOUR DIRECTORS WHY THE LAST TEN DAYS, SINCE WAR BROKE OUT IS NOT INCLUDED.


41% increase in sales required just to get the order book back to last years level.!!!

Broadly in line = profit warning.

Don’t forget all the cash being drained out of the business as retention payments have to be returned.

[dodge meister] 11/10/2023 08:47

Travis Perkins results identifying commodity deflation