Bank Of Georgia Share Discussion Threads

[leedsu36] 27/11/2024 08:56

Have you got a link please Fly.

[flyfisher] 27/11/2024 08:09

Monthly figures available on the NBG website indicate an excellent october month for BGEO.

[flyfisher] 15/11/2024 10:02

Leeds
Georgia capital, ticker CGEO, holds 20% of BGEO and some other georgia assets.

[leedsu36] 12/11/2024 14:41

Could you explain a bit more please Craig?

[craigso] 12/11/2024 11:25

Worth keeping in mind that the current share price of Georgia Capital is roughly equivalent to its stake in the bank.

But you also get a bunch of assets in Georgia "for free"...

If you can handle the risk, though, a bank growing fast on a PE of 3.5x surely deserves a punt.

[flyfisher] 12/11/2024 08:32

Cavendish upgrade note out today available on ''research tree''.

[flyfisher] 12/11/2024 08:03

Excellent Q3 results today. P/E of 4 and about 6% forward yield with strong growth forecast and about half way through the buy back.

But who would have thought that the political change in the USA would lead to a 20% rise in this.

I continually learn.

[flyfisher] 06/11/2024 20:10

Yes, i guess that is the main reason, also the other uk listed georgian bank TBCG reported excellent Q3 results today.

[gaiusgracchus] 06/11/2024 17:12

Presumably Trump's win will sideline the sort of foreign policy wonks (Nuland etc) who want to use Georgia as proxy to fight Russia. I'm guessing that's why this is up big today.

[apple53] 05/11/2024 09:49

Thanks Fly.
I have been trading this one. Doubled up at what proved to be the lows and then gradually sold out entirely. I suppose there are still political risks - I don't know how affected BGEO would be by Georgia being shunned by the EU, nor do I know if BGEO is associated with the GD party, or perceived as pro-EU or as non-aligned.
At least we did not, indeed, get the majority required to ban the opposition.
Further protests could lead to instability.
GD may take the normal pseudo-communist corporatist approach of forcing BGEO into supporting pet projects. Or maybe it will be careful not to kill the golden goose.
The currency has held up, and maybe there will be no major negative impact.

Clearly this remains stunningly cheap, and despite the recovery we are only back to where we were when we had significant election-risk.

[flyfisher] 05/11/2024 08:50

Monthly figures out last week on the NBG website indicate BGEO georgia profit for Q3 is about 9% ahead of Q2.

[apple53] 01/10/2024 12:49

Well Popit has been absolutely spot on. I did take some profit at the recent top but not enough, and your 9th Sep post, which I didn't see for a few days, was the trigger for doing more work on the politics, with the GD party looking increasingly strident, including most recently with its attempt (via the 'anti-corruption commission') to prevent Transparency International (TI) from observing the election.
The OSCE will still be observing, and the PM has requested the TI decision to be reversed.
I guess at this stage GD may lose enough votes that it makes it hard (even with possible manipulation) to get enough seats to ban the opposition. This could provide some relief.
I notice the currency has slipped.......

[gaiusgracchus] 21/9/2024 18:16

I used to work for Fitch solutions and to think they have any great insight into what GD will or will not do once they win the election is just laughable.

[popit] 10/9/2024 03:00

You seem to have a problem with basic facts

Fitch expects GD to easily win the Georgia election next month and to move the country further into the Russian geopolitical orbit and away from EU integration

Georgia could even face sanctions

And you think that this is not relevant to the BGEO and TBC share price? lol

The Georgia stock market and BGEO and TBC and the GEL currency are very likely to fall a long way after GD win the election next month

[pastybap] 09/9/2024 22:17

Utter repetitive gibberish from a russky bot.

[popit] 09/9/2024 22:03

Fitch solutions

"We think GD is prepared to weaken ties with the West significantly in its next administration, stalling the country’s EU integration indefinitely and risking sanctions.

Under GD, Georgia is likely to slip further into Russia’s geopolitical orbit in the years ahead"

[popit] 09/9/2024 16:33

Would not be surprised to see these fall back quite a long way to below £25 as GD are obviously set to win the Georgia election in October

[flyfisher] 02/9/2024 13:08

Loan book growth in H1 was against the backdrop of both BGEO and TBCG expecting 6% real gdp growth.
Both of them have upped their outlook to 7% real gdp growth. And july numbers from both companies have come in ahead of the first half run rate.

Some of this comes from the country becoming an alternative trade corridor.

Forbes had an article on the middle corridor a while ago.
''Georgia's strategic location on the eastern edge of the Black Sea has made it crucial for the Middle Corridor, a trade route between China and Europe bypassing Russia that has grown in importance since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. In recent years the government has pushed connectivity to the top of Georgia's foreign policy agenda, but the country lacks high-quality infrastructure, with lines of trucks at its borders and ports at Batumi and Poti operating near capacity as trade along the route has steadily increased since 2022. This has led to the World Bank warning that without a deep-sea port in Georgia neither the country nor the Middle Corridor will be competitive as a global trade route''.

The country has recently had rail upgrades increase rail capacity by 50%, a deep sea port development at Anaklia has been agreed with a Chinese developer and a developer is building a new business centre complex in batumi ' Batumi Centropolis'.

If and when the russia/ukraine situation is resolved, i wonder what proportion of trade will resort to using the russian trade corridor, or will the georgia middle corridor prosper?

[apple53] 02/9/2024 12:34

Thank you Fly, and also to HoP1 for a terrific summary and for getting the NBG numbers.

[houseofpain1] 02/9/2024 12:21

PS FWIW, the July National Bank of Georgia net income data for BOG shows a substantial rise in monthly net income to cGEL200m against an average of GEL122m in Q2. Suggests full steam ahead...