Bank Of Georgia Share Discussion Threads

[abrahe00] 19/2/2024 10:21

I am an Armenian, I live in Armenia and I bank with Ameriabank!

Ameria has been one of the best growing banks over the past 7 years, since I've been here. I don't knwof if this is a good deal for Armenia as a country, so the Central Bank may not approve the deal. Having said, money talks, bs walks in countries like ours, so it all depends who gets to be rich from this deal.

As a customer, I think it's brilliant that there is now some ECB oversight. Makes us less dependent on the old Russian money that set most of the banks up in Armenia.

As for in invasion by Azeris. You never know, but any invasion is likely to be centred around the south of the country. No physical danger as such in the capital. But, war is always good for making money, no?

I haven't invested here yet. Phenomenal growth over the past 5 years. Not sure it's sustainable though, given the precarious position of most banks and central banks.

GLA

[flyfisher] 19/2/2024 08:05

Internet search Ameriabank, will get you to their corporate site.

[peet1122] 19/2/2024 07:59

How can I access the accounts of Ameriabank flyfisher?

[flyfisher] 19/2/2024 07:46

I had looked at the accounts of Ameriabank over the weekend and was expecting that BGEO would have to pay around nav.

Accordingly the deal looks very good to me, it should lead to brokers upgrading BGEO eps forecasts to around £10 p/s.

P/e of 4 for the combined entity, a good use of excess capital.

[flyfisher] 17/2/2024 18:14

Best time to get a good deal!

[gaiusgracchus] 16/2/2024 22:03

Azerbaijan are about to invade Armenia. Not great timing on this deal!

[flyfisher] 16/2/2024 08:33

The potential acquisition looks to be about a fifth the size of BGEO and has about 15% market share in its country.

[houseofpain1] 15/2/2024 14:28

Although no details on price etc have been given, this potential Ameriabank deal looks positive. Should be earnings enhancing for BGEO given that Ameriabank's earnings are well in excess of the interest being earned on the surplus capital presumably being used to finance the deal. So should lead to higher earnings and therefore capital returns for BGEO which is still trading on rock bottom multiples.

[flyfisher] 01/2/2024 16:00

Q4 figures seem in line with expectations. Numis paused the buy in at year end having only completed half of it. I would expect them to pick it up again shortly.

[flyfisher] 13/1/2024 21:08

PJ84, Well done, a cracking investment.

[pj84] 04/1/2024 17:56

Even though the rating has continued to remain low, it has been one of my best investments over the past few years with about 75% of my original investment received in dividends as well as the share price being 4 times higher and I have no intention of selling any time soon.

I don't disagree with any of the dividend yields qouted in the shares magazine article but I don't think they are the highest and I can think of many insurance companies that should also feature including Pheonix on a dividend yield of about 10%!

[jm65] 04/1/2024 15:23

Because the guy running the country next door seems hell bent on world domination???

[houseofpain1] 04/1/2024 15:17

hxxps://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/the-five-highest-yielding-stocks-in-the-ftse-350-revealed

Bank of Georgia has the third highest yield in the FTSE350 with dividend cover of 4.1x - the highest of the top 5 by some distance. Shares have performed superbly over the last two years but there's been no meaningful change to the rating - still trading under 4x 2024 expected earnings and a shade above 2024e book value. Returning tons of capital via dividends and buybacks. I think the shares still have a lot further to go. Tell me why I'm wrong...!?

[pj84] 02/1/2024 10:55

Nothing new in the article but concludes as follows: -

"If stability in the region improves in 2024, the valuations of these companies are likely to need to be revised sharply upwards to bring share prices more closely in line with impressive underlying fundamentals."

[pj84] 23/12/2023 12:43

Also in December’s report – and in the month Georgia was granted EU candidacy status – we look at the surge in popularity with Elite Investors of some of the country’s leading financial businesses. London-listed Bank of Georgia (GB:BGEO), TBC Bank (GB:TBCG) and Georgia Capital (GB:CGEO) have all gained AAA ratings during 2023. Read more.

[eggbaconandbubble] 24/11/2023 14:47

Is some idiot suggesting that Georgia is a possible target for an invasion by Russia????

Give me a break!!!!

[pj84] 24/11/2023 11:01

"Banks stay cheap

HSBC is one of a number of top-rated banks highlighted by our deep value screen, which has flagged a number of lenders serving some of Europe’s smaller economies.

AAA-rated Georgian banks TBC (GB:TBC) and Bank of Georgia (GB:BGEO) feature, and not for the first time. While they are benefiting from strong economic growth in their home markets, geopolitical risks are high due to an overbearing neighbour in the form of Russia and a war on the doorstep in Ukraine."

The above snippet is from the following article which focusses on HSBC

[flyfisher] 20/11/2023 11:04

Both Numis and Peel Hunt have upgraded their target price, by 17% and 14% respectively, details on the BGEO website.

Consensus broker forecasts raised to 906p eps for 2023, with a total dividend forecast of 315p.

[flyfisher] 18/11/2023 09:35

As with all investments, BGEO carries several risks.

That is the reason for it trading at a p/e below 4 and a forecast yield of 8%+.

The BGEO website has recordings of the quarterly conference calls, they are educational and well worth a listen.

[popit] 17/11/2023 21:03

The currency must also be a huge risk here

The GEL has risen by about 20% against the USD over the last two years and most emerging market currencies have fallen against the USD during this time

This is mainly because of the Ukraine war and the fact that the Georgian economy has benefited greatly from the Ukraine war

When the Ukraine war ends or even if it looks like ending the GEL and the BGEO share price may fall a long way

If the GEL falls by about 30% then the eps in GBP and the BGEO share price in GBP will also fall by about 30%

[pj84] 17/11/2023 20:45

flyfisher, I agree entirely that in the short term that the geopolitical news affects the share price, but looking at the consistent upward trend, it does look like the underlying business and economic situation are more important.

I do realise that a major event like Russia, invading, hopefully unlikely with everything else going on, or on the other side being admitted to the EU which could enhance it's desire to become a member of NATO could have a major effect on the share price.

[flyfisher] 17/11/2023 10:39

Izztre, I think your comment about EU candidacy has a lot to do with recent share price action.

I have been in this for a few years and noted that we have a retrace whenever any negative press about russia / georgia relations occur.

We have recently had Russia announce that it will build a naval base in occupied georgian territory and now EU candidacy for Georgia, which russia will dislike.

The above may have prompted someone to exit and results day happened to be convenient.

In this stock it seems geopolitics are of more importance than results being ahead or behind.

[eggbaconandbubble] 15/11/2023 18:43

I'm no expert but.....

I doubt any Russian who has fled to Georgia would want to return home whilst Putin is still heading up the show regardless of the Ukraine war, as they will likely find themselves falling out of a fifth storey window, drinking radioactive tea, or some other lethal fate!!!

[popit] 15/11/2023 18:04

The RNS said

At the same time, the existing corporate tax rate for banks will be increased from 15% to 20% for 2023 taxable earnings, and dividends issued from 2023 profits and subsequent periods will no longer be taxed (existing dividend tax rate is 5%).

So there used to be a 5% Withholding Tax on the dividend?

And now there is no Withholding Tax on the dividend?

And what about the answers to the other questions?

Is there not a very high risk that the BGEO share price will collapse when all the Russians return home?

[flyfisher] 15/11/2023 14:02

Your question on tax was answered a few months ago on the thread.