Bank Of Georgia Share Discussion Threads

[pj84] 02/1/2024 10:55

Nothing new in the article but concludes as follows: -

"If stability in the region improves in 2024, the valuations of these companies are likely to need to be revised sharply upwards to bring share prices more closely in line with impressive underlying fundamentals."

[pj84] 23/12/2023 12:43

Also in December’s report – and in the month Georgia was granted EU candidacy status – we look at the surge in popularity with Elite Investors of some of the country’s leading financial businesses. London-listed Bank of Georgia (GB:BGEO), TBC Bank (GB:TBCG) and Georgia Capital (GB:CGEO) have all gained AAA ratings during 2023. Read more.

[eggbaconandbubble] 24/11/2023 14:47

Is some idiot suggesting that Georgia is a possible target for an invasion by Russia????

Give me a break!!!!

[pj84] 24/11/2023 11:01

"Banks stay cheap

HSBC is one of a number of top-rated banks highlighted by our deep value screen, which has flagged a number of lenders serving some of Europe’s smaller economies.

AAA-rated Georgian banks TBC (GB:TBC) and Bank of Georgia (GB:BGEO) feature, and not for the first time. While they are benefiting from strong economic growth in their home markets, geopolitical risks are high due to an overbearing neighbour in the form of Russia and a war on the doorstep in Ukraine."

The above snippet is from the following article which focusses on HSBC

[flyfisher] 20/11/2023 11:04

Both Numis and Peel Hunt have upgraded their target price, by 17% and 14% respectively, details on the BGEO website.

Consensus broker forecasts raised to 906p eps for 2023, with a total dividend forecast of 315p.

[flyfisher] 18/11/2023 09:35

As with all investments, BGEO carries several risks.

That is the reason for it trading at a p/e below 4 and a forecast yield of 8%+.

The BGEO website has recordings of the quarterly conference calls, they are educational and well worth a listen.

[popit] 17/11/2023 21:03

The currency must also be a huge risk here

The GEL has risen by about 20% against the USD over the last two years and most emerging market currencies have fallen against the USD during this time

This is mainly because of the Ukraine war and the fact that the Georgian economy has benefited greatly from the Ukraine war

When the Ukraine war ends or even if it looks like ending the GEL and the BGEO share price may fall a long way

If the GEL falls by about 30% then the eps in GBP and the BGEO share price in GBP will also fall by about 30%

[pj84] 17/11/2023 20:45

flyfisher, I agree entirely that in the short term that the geopolitical news affects the share price, but looking at the consistent upward trend, it does look like the underlying business and economic situation are more important.

I do realise that a major event like Russia, invading, hopefully unlikely with everything else going on, or on the other side being admitted to the EU which could enhance it's desire to become a member of NATO could have a major effect on the share price.

[flyfisher] 17/11/2023 10:39

Izztre, I think your comment about EU candidacy has a lot to do with recent share price action.

I have been in this for a few years and noted that we have a retrace whenever any negative press about russia / georgia relations occur.

We have recently had Russia announce that it will build a naval base in occupied georgian territory and now EU candidacy for Georgia, which russia will dislike.

The above may have prompted someone to exit and results day happened to be convenient.

In this stock it seems geopolitics are of more importance than results being ahead or behind.

[eggbaconandbubble] 15/11/2023 18:43

I'm no expert but.....

I doubt any Russian who has fled to Georgia would want to return home whilst Putin is still heading up the show regardless of the Ukraine war, as they will likely find themselves falling out of a fifth storey window, drinking radioactive tea, or some other lethal fate!!!

[popit] 15/11/2023 18:04

The RNS said

At the same time, the existing corporate tax rate for banks will be increased from 15% to 20% for 2023 taxable earnings, and dividends issued from 2023 profits and subsequent periods will no longer be taxed (existing dividend tax rate is 5%).

So there used to be a 5% Withholding Tax on the dividend?

And now there is no Withholding Tax on the dividend?

And what about the answers to the other questions?

Is there not a very high risk that the BGEO share price will collapse when all the Russians return home?

[flyfisher] 15/11/2023 14:02

Your question on tax was answered a few months ago on the thread.

[popit] 15/11/2023 13:04

Does anyone know the answers to these questions?

1. Is there a Withholding Tax on the dividends here?

It says on the internet that there is a 5% Withholding Tax for dividends paid by companies in Georgia to non residents

2. These shares have soared since the Ukraine war started and since many Russians have moved to Georgia

So what will happen to the shares when the war ends and all the Russians return home? Is it not possible that BGEO shares will fall a long way or even collapse?

3. The Georgia currency has also been very strong since the Ukraine war started and since many Russians have moved to Georgia

So what will happen to the shares when the war ends and all the Russians return home and the Georgia currency falls? Is it not possible that BGEO shares will fall a long way or even collapse?

[mrscruff] 14/11/2023 11:25

Only thing I can think of is, and is a tenuous link that US has not provided a budget for Israel-Gaza (as well as Ukraine). Meaning the region is more unstable and could spread for the end of the year when they need the money now. I think that was an over-reaction if it was linked. This budget will get resolve due to pressure groups in the US.

[jqb1] 14/11/2023 11:17

Gutted I didn't see the drop, would have bought more. Sit tight all!

[houseofpain1] 14/11/2023 09:45

Not quite sure why the shares have been marked down this morning - volume looks fairly low and note that the shares are c5% off the early lows. All looks good to me across the board. Net profit of GEL357m was above the strong H1 run rate and contribution was spread across the P&L. Capital generation also robust and potential for further buybacks and dividends is meaningful. Brokers putting through further upgrades for this and future years. So all very encouraging. The only thing I can think that might explain the fall (and please note I'm speculating here because who knows!?) is that perhaps the pace of upgrades might finally be slowing? If that is right, it's a long way from a disaster and the valuation, which hasn't really changed in the past couple of years in spite of spectacular earnings growth, remains highly supportive.

[houseofpain1] 14/11/2023 09:40

Not quite sure why the shares have been marked down this morning - volume looks fairly low and note that the shares are c5% off the early lows. All looks good to me across the board. Net profit of GEL357m was above the strong H1 run rate and contribution was spread across the P&L. Capital generation also robust and potential for further buybacks and dividends is meaningful. Brokers putting through further upgrades for this and future years. So all very encouraging. The only thing I can think that might explain the fall (and please note I'm speculating here because who knows!?) is that perhaps the pace of upgrades might finally be slowing? If that is right, it's a long way from a disaster and the valuation, which hasn't really changed in the past couple of years in spite of spectacular earnings growth, remains highly supportive.

[izztre] 14/11/2023 09:30

I don't think so on this occasion. It defo is a risk and sometimes impacts this share. However not sure what is in the results, unless the statement about the EU could cause more friction with Russia?

[daijavu] 14/11/2023 09:26

Is the problem their proximity to Russia?

[izztre] 14/11/2023 08:43

Same, the market was obviously hoping for more!

[ponyten] 14/11/2023 08:39

Why the drop? Thought they were decent results?

[flyfisher] 14/11/2023 07:57

Results look to be ahead of market expectations.

BGEO has reported increasing customer deposits in Q3, whereas local competitor TBCG reported declining customer deposits in Q3.

BGEO seems to be increasing retail market share.

[flyfisher] 08/11/2023 15:27

The other operating subsidiary BNB bank made 9m in Q2.

If that is repeated then BGEO consolidated net income for Q3 should be around 340m gel, plus or minus any exceptionals.

[eggbaconandbubble] 07/11/2023 14:20

I guess all that is good news because BGEO is up about 70p and TBg down about 50p!

[flyfisher] 07/11/2023 08:45

Todays information indicates a pre exceptional 331m gel profit for BGEO in q3, which compares with 301m in Q1.

IMO it looks positive for next week.