Bank Of Georgia Share Discussion Threads

[houseofpain1] 02/9/2024 12:18

Thought the results the other day were excellent albeit slightly difficult to dig into due to the addition of Ameriabank for the first time and various one-offs. Looking through the noise, the key takeaway for me was that the enlarged balance sheet is driving growth with group loans rising by 8.6% in Q2. I wouldn't expect that rate to be sustained (it equates to 39% annually!) but it does nonetheless give confidence that future lending growth, a key driver or profit and returns, will remain strong. I was also encouraged that there appeared to be no strains on funding, impairment or capital. Given the strong economic backdrop (which the politics does not appear to be impacting) I expect more of the same looking ahead - high growth plus attractive capital distributions between 30%-50% of earnings. High RoEs plus buybacks should ensure continued rapid NAVps growth meaning that shareholders should get decent returns even without a re-rating.

[flyfisher] 30/8/2024 18:38

Broker forecasts have been upgraded post Q2.

[flyfisher] 25/8/2024 12:29

apple, The company website has recordings of the analysts call for each quarter, along with Q&A.

[apple53] 23/8/2024 22:00

Thanks Fly. I have created an account, but cautious about the £100 a year to read such reports for only 3 companies. I'm not saying it's overpriced, just not sure I can make full use.

[flyfisher] 23/8/2024 19:57

apple, Cavendish have updated their coverage, it is available on 'Research tree'.

[apple53] 23/8/2024 11:22

I was intrigued by the market response - flat, down and back to flat. I couldn't see anything to dislike. I narrowly missed adding in the low 41s and then got greedy when I could have still bought at 42.
I think this stock sits in the large pile of (UK-listed) entities: which are patently trading at a massive discount to fair value; for which we have no idea if and when much of the value gap will be closed; and for which it makes sense to take at least partial profits on spikes with a pretty high likelihood that one can get back in. This list includes many of the banks and most of the PE ITs. I will try to get to know the company better.

[apple53] 21/8/2024 07:24

Results tomorrow.
Anyone already done an estimate based on central bank data? I guess tomorrow shouldn't be too much of a surprise numerically, but guidance may be significant?
Marketscreener has 11.73 for the full year but not sure if I can see more granularity.
I take Popit's point about currency, and political risk may be even higher than in the UK (!) but there are offsetting factors.
I own a modest position so far.

[flyfisher] 05/7/2024 09:52

Pension funds have been reducing exposure to the uk market for several years and now hold a record low allocation to uk equities.

It has been suggested that the Labour government will make changes to uk pension fund regulations in order to make them hold more uk investments.

Perhaps stocks such as this, uk listed with overseas earnings will be in demand later this year.

[houseofpain1] 03/7/2024 11:17

So my post of 24 April suggesting that there was plenty more upside here has not aged well...for now at least...!

No view on the politics but the latest monthly data from the National Bank of Georgia very encouraging. Net income in April was in-line with each of the previous 3 months and then was up c20% in May in spite of all the civil unrest. Annualised ROE for 2024 continues to be very high at 33.63% and actually ticked up a bit in May.

So the fundamentals of the business still look rock solid whilst the valuation remains extreme - somewhere around 4x 2024 EPS, 6%+ divi and trading below BV - given the high returns being generated and the growth profile.

So, at the risk of giving the stock another kiss of death, plenty more upside here! Next catalyst: Q2/H1 numbers due mid-August.

[jm65] 29/5/2024 10:30

Surely won't finish "red" today?

One of the funniest posts I've seen in a while :-)

Yep, agree with you gobbie.
I think there are elections this October with plenty of potential for civil unrest in the run-up which will only make the market nervous.
Good figures though.

[gobbie100] 29/5/2024 09:57

The critical line in the report is that political uncertainty will remain until the election in October 2024. This will likely overshadow business performance for the foreseeable future. Just too hard to predict direction of this so for me too risky right now even with the strong financial performance. I enjoyed the ride here but will sit on the sidelines for the foreseeable future

[jm65] 29/5/2024 09:49

Mortimer, You're a funny Guy :-)

[mortimer7] 29/5/2024 07:38

Surely won't finish red today?

[tsmith2] 29/5/2024 07:02

Excellent update

[flyfisher] 21/5/2024 15:16

Courtesy of the Guardian.

A “foreign agents” law that has brought hundreds of thousands of people on to the streets of Georgia’s capital of Tbilisi could be dropped in return for a package of economic and security support from Washington, the ruling party has hinted.

In response to a draft bill tabled in the US Congress that would open up talks on a trade deal in return for fresh commitments on civil rights, the governing Georgian Dream party said in a statement that it would need to see progress on such promises within a year.

[tsmith2] 21/5/2024 07:36

looks like the company is keen to get news out

[flyfisher] 20/5/2024 08:08

This new bill highlights who is funding ngo's, which is highly desirable.
There are mass demonstrations with both russian and american nationals among those arrested.
What is going on ?

This presents an alternative perspective.

[podgyted] 19/5/2024 19:35

That's because the Georgian banks are far more profitable and have better growth prospects.

LLOY

ROCE 0.9%
Operating Margin 10.9%

HSBA

ROCE 1.0%
Operating Margin 36.7%

BGEO

ROCE 5.2%
Operating Margin 58.6%

Risk here has elevated due to the "Russian Law" issue, but the share price has fallen quite a lot already.

We'll see.

[popit] 18/5/2024 02:00

Risk is too high here now

[popit] 18/5/2024 01:34

Price to Book valuation of UK listed Banks


Close Brothers 0.35
Barclays 0.37
Secure Trust Bank 0.39
Standard Chartered 0.47
Lloyds 0.65
Natwest 0.67
HSBC 0.9
TBC Bank 1.3
Bank of Georgia 1.6

[popit] 18/5/2024 01:33

Price to book here is also very high in comparison to UK banks

[popit] 18/5/2024 01:30

The Georgian currency is a very big risk here and if the GEL was to return to the same average exchange rate against the USD and GBP as in 2021 then these shares would fall by about 30%

In May 2021 the USD bought 3.45 GEL but it only buys about 2.75 now

And in May 2021 the GBP bought about 4.80 GEL but it only buys about 3.50 now

There does not seem to be any good reason for this huge rise in the GEL against the USD and GBP in the last 3 years and so it is likely that the GEL will return to a more normal level against these currencies

This would mean a fall of about 30% in the shares

The dividend would also fall by about 30%

[tsmith2] 16/5/2024 09:24

staring to bottom out?

[abrahe00] 15/5/2024 08:36

Georgian and Armenian economies were helped by the huge influx of Russian money and resources last year. This will subside and the Armenian GDP will revert to around 5% this year. That is if the current government has the b*lls to stand-up to the unreasonable Azeris demands.