Bango Share Discussion Threads

[parob] 18/7/2024 07:52

Very encouraging indeed.Let's hope Liontrust have finished selling now they've declared. Chart looks ready for its next leg up :)

[amt] 18/7/2024 07:28

Boku trading update just out.
All looks very promising.
Their carrier billing grew 26% but they are pushing it and so not surprising it is growing faster than Bango.
They have spotted an opportunity in the 2.2 trillion usd Cross border ecommerce market and investing heavily. Maybe that's why they didn't bother picking up Bango on the cheap.
It's a great space to be in with both companies having massive potential from a secure base generating plenty of cash

[amt] 18/7/2024 07:17

Seems that Liontrust have had lots of redemption so selling Bango might just have been a way of raising funds. However things are improving so maybe over the worst.

[parob] 18/7/2024 07:11

Not 100% sure but I think most likely bought by the institution for one of their funds. Just seen the Liontrust TR1 that they have reduced, so perhaps Fidelity bought some of those shares. Price has been rising for a few months so there's been more buys than sells overall obviously.

[amt] 18/7/2024 05:34

I went back 6 years to calculate organic growth over the last 6 years and its about 30% per annum.
As turnover gets into higher numbers its harder to maintain but with 60% growth in DVM and 9% growth in the payments business I think we can pencil in 20% as an absolute minimum for the next few years.
If DVM takes off then we could get back to 30% compound growth.
That would equal quarter of a million turnover in 6 years time and presumably a market cap of billions usd rather than millions.

[jasperlachat] 17/7/2024 14:37

Isn’t Fidelity’s holding just mix of personal investors?

[parob] 17/7/2024 14:28

Fideliry TR1 - over 6%.Might explain some of those recent large trades

[ic777] 17/7/2024 13:28

USDJPY also seems to be turning in my humble opinion...we r changing from the regime of "higher for longer" to "Fed going to cut"...this will help Bango...

[weblinkman] 17/7/2024 10:32

Bango probing teh Employee Benefits Market:

[stentorian] 17/7/2024 09:50

Who else thinks that Bango should be offering shareholders their own Bango Shareholder DVM?

I have quite a few subscriptions Netflix, Prime, UberOne, itvX etc.(note in the backdrop to Larbey in his latest video there was a stylised packet of crisps with "Britbox" on it. Britbox is now itvX so a bit of an own goal there- the wrapper needs changing).

The employee benefits market could be very lucrative.

[6gr] 17/7/2024 09:17

What encourages me for the longer-term is two key factors.

First is Net Revenue Retention (NRR) of 159% in DVM. This is staggeringly good and means that not only do existing customers stay, they increase usage significantly over time. This will result in natural significant revenue growth from the existing customer base.

The second is lead-time. Many deals take time to implement, not just to get integrated, but also for the end-client to start using and promoting the product properly. There are many deals already done that will only start to produce revenue over coming months/years. We also know that many new deals have been done but simply cannot be announced as they are under NDA. In the Annual report where they show the client base, there are 101 clients, of these 40 are marked 'Top Secret' i.e. cannot be disclosed. Paul eluded to this in the Pro-Active video, they are doing deals, but frustratingly simply cannot announce them.

Assuming they can stabilise the cost-base around or even under current levels, in the coming years we'll be adding $10m+ to sales every year that should flow straight to the bottom-line.

[amt] 17/7/2024 09:08

Difficult to forecast beyond 2025 but that may be possible when we get an idea of growth rates in DVM probably in a year or so.

[amt] 17/7/2024 08:56

6gr Good point, well made. Also DVM margins will improve as volumes increase.
Overall longerterm 95% probably a reasonable expectation. Perhaps even better if DVM goes exponential as expected.

[6gr] 17/7/2024 08:50

Surely the GM improves in H2 simply because the EUS in the DCB business rises 50% naturally given the 60:40 split H1:H2.

This extra turnover arrives at near zero-cost, since it's just processing payments, no extra development work, no sales costs etc, other than perhaps a tiny bit of leakage in some places.

[amt] 17/7/2024 07:15

Taursus Larby mentioned cost savings in H2 in the interview.
Don't forget that they had to take one off costs for the Docomo integration when they occurred. They couldn't now include them in the original acquisition cost provision.
GM improving as integration into the Bango platform continues. It should all be completed by the end of 2024.
We should get a clear run in 2025 with margins of at least 93%.
This is why I see Ebitda of at least 30m in 2025 on sales of 68m plus.
After that who knows. Bango think that DVM could produce hundreds of millions in turnover.

[taursus] 16/7/2024 20:32

I see but that doesn’t answer the questions. It merely asserts that cost savings will occur.

[amt] 16/7/2024 19:51

Taursus Fear not there are some cost savings in H2 so according to my calculation they get to 16m Ebitda on 30m H2 sales at 93% which is Gm 28m
Fixed costs H2 16m.
Ebitda 12m H
Longer term margins will continue to improve.
30m plus ebitda in 2025 very probable so we have to be patient.

[taursus] 16/7/2024 19:07

The explanations given about H1 and H2 don’t hold water, in my view, without further detail.

First, if the gross margin is to increase from 85% in H1 to 93% in H2 then in absolute terms, assuming turnover in H2 is $29.4m, the cost of sales must fall from about $3.6m in H1 to about $2.1m in H2, a fall of $1.5m. By definition, the costs that fall away in H2 can’t be fixed costs. The fall in the cost of sales in H2 must therefore be due to either a fall in variable costs, or one-off costs in H1, or a combination of the two things. Which is it and why?

Second adjusted admin expenses rose sequentially from H2 FY2023 to H1 FY2024 (from about $14.7m to about $16.5m). Bango said that by the end of 2023 the $21m of synergies from the Docomo deal had been fully extracted. Presumably some additional costs were carried in H2 FY2023 before the full synergies were realised. Why then have adjusted admin expenses risen by nearly $2m from H2 FY2023 to H1 FY2024?

Third, if forecast turnover is to be $53.5m, the gross margin 93% in H2 and adjusted EDBITDA $16.8m then adjusted admin expenses in H2 FY2024 must fall to $14.6m, a sequential fall of nearly $2m after a sequential rise of around $2m. What is the explanation for that?

[lentjes] 16/7/2024 18:48

Another 1.9m of stock got re housed later afternoon without a TR-1 notification, big boys positioning themselves for take off

[amt] 16/7/2024 18:34

I suspect that in H2 annualised End User Spend will exceed 10 billion usd. Perhaps 11 billion exit rate at December 31st

[amt] 16/7/2024 18:29

Very confident of meeting market expectations.
The recent blip is well out of the way now but the market remains to be convinced.
I don't mind really and can sleep happy that my investment is safe with huge potential if things go to plan in 2025 and beyond.

[ic777] 16/7/2024 14:35

Moreover there is still some leftover integration costs in 1H...personally see positive free cash flow of 5-8 mio in 2H

[amt] 16/7/2024 14:23

I think its de_risked regarding cash as its almost inconceivable they won't be cash positive in H2. Given H2 likely 12m ebitda.

[amt] 16/7/2024 14:15

Yes good effort rmillaree but you didn't have the margin % which is info provided by Simon Thompson. He must have spoken to them I presume.
In fairness by the way they have a good record of meeting expectations but obviously last year was a mess up and resulted in a severe loss of confidence and credibility. The market reaction was completely over the top but I was grateful to double up at around one pound.
It will take another 6 months to rebuild confidence so not expecting 2.00 plus until next year