Bango Share Discussion Threads

[amt] 26/7/2024 19:51

Not many companies put out forecasts beyond the current year.
I don't have any issue with it.
The growth is so spectacular here it's difficult to know exactly how big the growth in DVM will be from a small base.
Easy to do for the traditional business where steady ten percent growth but DVM could be 40% to 150%.
Easy for Boku a mature business.

[drydata] 26/7/2024 18:09

Hello Milaree. Please can you explain why the CEO and CFO might put out expectation for 2025?
If they plan to stay till 2026-27 or more and they get share options at market price, why they want to say when they will be punished if they get a number wrong?
Best to stay quiet. They dont need to raise money so 2025 share price same as now or lower is good. If good finance report in Mar 2026 then they really benefit.
Can you explain ,motivations?
DD

[rmillaree] 26/7/2024 10:43

There's no point issuing a '25 forecast if the market is not even paying attention to the '24 numbers

I couldnt disagree more - for proper grown up companies they will have expectations for this year and next - they should have processes in place so that they know how n track they are or not. Over time that should provide stable enviroment to update the market regularly over time as psopects change for the better or worse. With a decent setup in place then investors can regulalry see over time how things are progressing. At present with nothing on the table next year the directors clearly have a clue and its very market sensitive anmd yet we are kept in the dark.

Note if we are wanting to ascribe valuations in then hundreds of millions of pounds to a business wtf would we not expect the company to be grown up an have a serious investor relations / communication strategy is like other companies of its ilk.

Note its not as if we didnt previously have numbers pencilled in for 2025 - we did and those numbers were wityhdrawn and we are now months later - without revised estimates of any sort. I fully understand teh pause for breath after the debacle earlier in the year - but i would have liked to think tyhe top bods would realise their weaknesses in their inability to project - puit team in place who could ad get the new info out to the market and deliver on those numbers. Heck If they hope to do $15 mill profit next year start with $7 mill and revise upwards with each news release likle most sensible conservatice companies will do if thinbgs are going well. Set sensible low bar and deliver slightly ahead. Cant think this company has ever said - oh yes we delivered better profits than we previosuly expected.

Investors here make comparisons to Boku - with Boku we have had 2025 expectations in place - it hasnt been a straight line but estimates for both 2024 and 2025 have ben tyrending nicely up opver the last 18 months - 2024 started at 3.6p eps 2024 and is now at 5.5p eps. for 2025 they started at 5.7p and are now at 6.1p. What investors do have is a clear picture oe where the company is trending ref the bottom line profit numbers. and with Bango we had something for 2025 and we now have nowt and that perfectly fine for some and thos some are expecting others to pay the same rating as psople pay for Boku?

[amt] 25/7/2024 22:37

Yes I agree 6gr, nothing to be suspicious about.

[6gr] 25/7/2024 12:22

There's no point issuing a '25 forecast if the market is not even paying attention to the '24 numbers. The broker pulled it after the last YE miss and I would guess the plan is to (hopefully) announce a very strong FY '24 (which only has 5 months left) then publish a '25 forecast with the credibility of the '24 numbers to back it up.

[amt] 25/7/2024 12:10

At least the price is steady today while most tech is down greatly.

[amt] 25/7/2024 12:04

I never stated I was 100% confident. Those are my best estimates.
I don't believe that just because the company hasn't put a forecast out there for 2025 they are somehow pessimistic.
Very few companies put forecasts out there a year ahead. As I mentioned I should think they see no point in doing it. After the debacle of last year why would they take any risk at all.
If you asked me 5 years would turnover be 50m usd annualised I would have thought that a big stretch so for me 75% of the time Bango has not disappointed.
I certainly don't see any other opportunities in the stock market with such little downside but with big upside potential as Bango at the moment.
There is always a chance of course that I have called it wrong and they are not making forecasts for 2025 because they would be a big disappointment as you suggest.
I have been in and out of Bango for over ten years by the way so I am very familiar with their record, which is by and large very good.
True the model has changed over the years but I see them as clever at grabbing opportunities as they come along. Not a perfect record but very good.

[rmillaree] 25/7/2024 11:43

"rmillaree I thought that was the idea of investing. We try and make predictions about the future if something looks good value put our money there."


agreed i dont even necessarily diasagree with your comments - but when the company is not letting us know WhAt they think next year will be i am happy to come on here everytime someone posts their estimates - just to clear up to the unwary that the company had previously promised richaes ref 2025 and has now completely as far as i can seen withdrawn all estimates ref next year - if company is silent on next years propsects that speaks voiumes to me - any estimates we make in such times are unbelievably stab in the dark guesses.

I cannot believe for one second that if company was 100% as confident as you are ref next years prospects that they wouldnt have those rosy assumptions in thne public domain - obviously they need to susbtantiate that their promises arent fiction as info has been in the past. I am probably being slightly harsh colling projections promises

[amt] 25/7/2024 10:50

rmillaree I thought that was the idea of investing. We try and make predictions about the future if something looks good value put our money there.
My forecasts by the way are not wild speculation but based on trends over the last few years. They represent realistic expectations. Bango may not want to make forecasts after the hammering they took when a few unexpected things happened earlier in the year. However its unlikely there will be further unexpected events now that the acquisition rationalisation is all but done.
As for the impact of fx rates I agree that is pure speculation but no harm in commenting on what could possibly happen and how fx rate changes would impact the results. You don't have to believe it but let's not dismiss any attempts at forecasting as wild speculation.
As regards Japanese fx rates I have calculated the data on actual numbers to show the impact on profits and turnover by the way. No guesswork there. Of course the fx rate could move the other way but worth thinking about, don't you think after Lentjes posted that interesting article?

[rmillaree] 25/7/2024 09:20

Lets be frank amt we all know the potential here but for a company that is only expected to deliver £3.60 mill profit tis current year and to the best of my knowledge wont tell us what expectations for next year.

We can have all tyhe speculation in the world about future pots of gold but in the real world at present the company giving us nowt and you providing wild speculation of untold riches. I for one do not expect share price to deffo be higher until the company justifies this with real numbers and real results.

For all holders here lets hope your speculation of untold riches turns out to be correct :)

[amt] 25/7/2024 07:21

It looks like Boku is also greatly underappreciated by the market. A fabulous trading update and the shares are drifting down. I reckon that's 50% undervalued by the way.

[amt] 25/7/2024 07:12

A bizarre thought that if sustained over a long period then put a pe ratio of 15 on the additional 8m and you get to the current market cap of Bango.
As I mentioned before I believe Ebitda of 30m for 2025 is a reasonable projection and if that is increased to say 35m due to a 50% swing during this and by December 2025 in the yen, a market cap of 420m usd on pe of 12. That gives a share price of over 4 quid. Imagine the market latches onto it and gives it a pe of 25 !!

[amt] 25/7/2024 06:58

Even a 10% Reversal could add usd 1.5 million to turnover and profit since over 90% drops to bottom line. A sustained 50% recovery over a year could add 8 million to turnover and profits, which is adding 50% to Bango's total anticipated profit.
They were fortunate to buy Docommo and deal with the costs of restructuring at a time when the Yen was weak.

[amt] 25/7/2024 06:57

Interesting Lentjes. The pound up 4% vs Yen in last couple of weeks so perhaps it is starting to happen. I looked at a longterm chart of the yen and it'd true that when reversal of declines start it is often very rapid and so a 50% reversal in less than a year is quite possible.

[lentjes] 25/7/2024 06:48

JPY recovery all helps

October last year the trader nicknamed 50 cents predicted a recovery in the JPY which appeared to materialise only for the recovery to be reversed in the coming months, let’s hope this recovery is not short lived and continues into 2025 at which point BGO full year revenue numbers will be interesting

[ic777] 25/7/2024 03:51

USDJPY turned as mentioned previously...Good for Bango...

[weblinkman] 19/7/2024 14:42

Amazon Prime US sales up significantly:

[joe say] 19/7/2024 13:47

Investors file the TR-1 with the company - so they can still not be RNS'd if the company's admin is poor etc

[6gr] 19/7/2024 13:00

Exactly, investors file the TR-1, so no reflection on the company whatsoever. As for the website shareholder notes, I don't look or care, there's no requirement and it only legally matters that it's reported correctly in the Annual Report.

[jasperlachat] 19/7/2024 12:30

I was always thought it was the shareholders responsibility to report , as per threshold requirements. As for updating an investors web page, who really cares.

[amt] 19/7/2024 12:17

Blimey, let's keep a sense of proportion

[rmillaree] 19/7/2024 10:27

perfect one for the new audit chair - i have been advsied their job is to ensure the company has processes to get detail like this correct.

Perhaps its non notifiable swings and roundabouts if reporting thresholds may not have been crossed - is that a plausible explanation?

Note if the company are not starting to get tyhier house in order ref teh technical detail - that would make me worry that rthe forecasts they are handing out ref teh future may be similarly sloppy (or worse)

[lentjes] 18/7/2024 23:24

So Bango issue a TR-1 notice this morning advising Liontrust reducing their holding from 11.090m to 9.570m on 15th July

The Bango web page have them at 8.542m as of 29th June

Can somebody explain what is going on

[parob] 18/7/2024 17:18

1.5M of trades reported after hours.