Bango Share Discussion Threads

[rmillaree] 08/4/2024 16:29

My overview for '24: Costs down, revenues up = much increased profits and free cashflows

well compared to loss of $8 mill for year just finished yes figures will NEED to be meaningfully better (obviously) - they need 11.6 mill postive swing just to get to £3.6 mill profit forecast that i think brokers currently have. I dont know if my £3.6 number estimate excludes and line items or not though.

[amt] 08/4/2024 16:06

Yes the 21m costs synergies will make a big difference in 2024 and all of it in 2025

[6gr] 08/4/2024 15:53

The slides from the 'Investor Meets Company' presentation this morning are now online.

hxxps://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/fy23-results-presentation/presentation

Slide 14 shows a reduction in Capex for '24 vs '23 by $4m.

Slide 17 summarises as:


Strong revenue growth.

Payment business continues to grow
DVM business accelerating
ARR provides predictable revenue stream

Managing costs.

R&D CAPEX decreases in 2024
$21M cost synergies from the acquisitions reached
Cost of payments business to further reduce in 2024 and beyond

My overview for '24: Costs down, revenues up = much increased profits and free cashflows

[amt] 08/4/2024 15:31

IC you are missing the point that admin costs will be much lower, GP higher and 7 or 8m on turnover at 90% margin.
So let's say admin costs 8m less (11m are other costs that can be eliminated in 2025) , GP 4% higher (90%) 2m, plus 7m extra profit from sales equals 17m higher than 2023.
That's 23m ebitda. So 16.8m is in easy reach.
With margins recovering on 2025 and all acquisition costs completed then 30m ebitda would be easily achievable

[tsmith2] 08/4/2024 15:25

large buy at 120p

[vespasianthesubguest] 08/4/2024 14:38

sort of...

[vespasianthesubguest] 08/4/2024 14:32

I'm lucky i've only been in since 2021 so haven't seen such wild swings...this is only my first.

[rmillaree] 08/4/2024 14:31

IC777

"I see a couple of posters trying to play down the share price"

If that shot is aimed at me IC777 - you are way wide of the mark. I dont ever hang around BB's wanting to post solely negative stuff for personal reasons. I am here because i think this company had promise and before January the proof of the pudding big time was meant to be now - the recent update though was miss for year just finished and even larger downgrades ref this year with little "formal" explanation. practicably speaking they are 2 years behind where they told us we would be previously ref real profits and its clear they are struggling to gain traction in next 12 months based on lower than prior forecasts.

Hopefully it is the case that they have learned and future updates will all be neutral to positive ref the real numbers that matter (nor fantasy of start of year predictions)- based on prior form though not sure why anyone would necessarily give them the benefit of the doubt when they have been so poor at knowing whats going on with their own business the last 12 months - any decent listed company keeps expectations real and tries to nudge in the right direction ref the future - huge swings from feast to famine with talk of later feast imho reflects very badly on management here (no one asked them to predict $15 mill profit this year that was their choice to give us that number !). Thats all in the past though with 50% price drop so they have chance of fresh slate to restore confidence - not sure why anyone would expect shareprice to go up until that confidence is restored though.

ref ic piece i simply dont get their logic? they say

Reflecting the strong start to the new financial year, Singer Capital Markets predict a step change in profitability, pencilling in 162 per cent growth in cash profit to $16.8mn

then

Moreover, with Bang forecast to be cash flow positive in 2024

i simply dont believe they will make 16.8 mil of cash profits this year - that number seems nonsensical - where on earth has this number come from?

Note if they didnt have any capital spending i guess it might be technically possible but 16.8m cash profit sound sinsanely optimistic.

Would be nice to see broker note detailing expected cashflow numbers - i would concede i could be wrong here so would be happy to hear from brokere nailing theri colours to the mast (not ic fluff piece we cant even read)

[a1canary] 08/4/2024 14:21

To be clear, I am a holder and want nothing other than success for this company. But I think it has burnt the majority of us on here more often than not, even tho I've made some returns trading its past gyrations getting in and out! But at this level I can't pretend this has made up for losses in the current position. There is some progress I suppose, but am a bit jaded by their words that are the same year after year.

[vespasianthesubguest] 08/4/2024 13:43

Thanks 888ICB

[888icb] 08/4/2024 13:39

The IC piece is titled “Why Bango’s share price is set to recover strongly”. This is the concluding part of the article:
“ Reflecting the strong start to the new financial year, Singer Capital Markets predict a step change in profitability, pencilling in 162 per cent growth in cash profit to $16.8mn on 16 per cent higher annual revenue of $53.5mn. The forecast doubling of cash profit margin to 31 per cent reflects a four percentage point improvement in gross margin to 90 per cent), the benefit of cost savings and the operational leverage of the business.

Moreover, with Bang forecast to be cash flow positive in 2024, Singer have reduced the interest charge in their financial models and raised their 2024 pre-tax profit estimate by 8 per cent to $5.7mn, thus reversing last year’s $7.8mn pre-tax loss. On this basis, expect earnings per share (EPS) of 7.3c (5.8p).

Rated on seven times 2024 cash profit estimates to enterprise valuation, and given the upbeat start to this year’s trading, Bango’s share price rally is likely to gather momentum. Buy.”

[vespasianthesubguest] 08/4/2024 13:36

I for one appreciate rmillaree and a1canary's thoughts. We need both the positive and negative leaning insights and not succumb to group think!

[a1canary] 08/4/2024 13:29

Do YOU trust the management IC? If as RM indicates, they have failed to even acknowledge what happened to get so off track and to spaff so much $$ up the wall, that is only more reason NOT to trust them.

[techno20] 08/4/2024 13:28

Simon Thompson quick off the blocks. Buy recommendation on IC.

[lentjes] 08/4/2024 13:18

The below statement from Raymondo appears to recognise they need to build the balance sheet and pay off the NHN loan as priority,

The Board also determined that it was prudent to carefully manage the pace of investment, given current market conditions. As migrations complete and the free cash flows from the payments business rise, a priority is to use these to build cash reserves, repay any debt and invest in the rapid growth around the DVM.

[ic777] 08/4/2024 12:53

I see a couple of posters trying to play down the share price...not sure why...guess boils down to just whether u trust the mgt...

[rmillaree] 08/4/2024 12:07

the only substantive stuff here is the bad news that they lost $8 mill dollars - despite increasing intangibles by $10 mill.

So if you count intangible spend as cost thats $18 mill they lost year just finished - cant se any positives there.

The positivity about being on track this new year is only due to the fact they already removed 85% of the profits that they ahd previously expected woudl be here in thne prior update. The reality is factoring in intangible spend and exceptionals we should probably expected loss for current year - ok breakeven is better than huge loss but tis IS the year we are meant to be benefiting from full prior years $23 mill cost saving exercise.

I would agree if that is line in the sand and they are now going conservative and are goinmg upgrade going forward rather than miss then that would perhaps be potential for good news - i am not convinced i would trust them to be ultra conservative though in that regard - just look at all the self congratulation going on ref progress with next to no mention of teh $15 million recent dopwngrade in expectations for current year.

[a1canary] 08/4/2024 11:52

I'd be extremely careful about loading up after a results boost. It's very usual to get a bump because of all the optimism (which we've seen a thousand times) before it floats all the way back to where it was (sub £1) because there isn't actually anything substantive in the update/results.

That has been the way it goes so many time. That said, I haven't looked at these particular results to judge if there IS anything substantive. I guess things we'd be looking for in them and in the presentation this time is a (very) convincing explanation of the 'admin' costs (more than just - oh the acquisition integration costs were higher than expected) so things like, what exactly were these costs and can you be sure there are no more?

Anyway, it's nice to see it recovering but let's see if it has manage to hold firm here at least by the end of the week. If the TU slump was overdone, then maybe it can at least hold steady. And I have other things to be happy about too after the weekend's Old Farm Derby result ;)

[vespasianthesubguest] 08/4/2024 11:12

Lots of good comments. What a pleasant start to the week! Let's see what the H1 update indicates. I'm loading up anyway

[amt] 08/4/2024 11:11

I thought the CFO answered the questions very well and gave me much more confidence after I had my concerns after the trading update.
Paul was impressive as always but without some of the hype this time.

[amt] 08/4/2024 11:06

milkaree as was explained the cost savings will start to come through in 2024 numbers and in 2025 we should have a clean year with much reduced costs, a concentration on DVM and plenty of cash rolling in from the payments business.
The valuation should be based on the potential of the DVM business which at the moment is in for free. The cash from the payments business alone is more than enough to support the current share price.
Whether you believe in the DVM business becoming a hundred million turnover business should then determine if this can become a billion valuation. I think it can but only time will tell. They think it can and are throwing all their resources into it.

[rmillaree] 08/4/2024 10:26

does anyone really believe the company just having taken $10-£15 mill expected profit "off thw table" a couple of months back is now going to smash taregts and delivber above expectations ?
One would like to think they will be more conservative going forward but nothing in the info announced would give me any confidence that will be the case.

If these $23 mill of cost savings are real they should be making hay now - nopt in 12 months time.

as a1canary has confirmed its still jam well into the future.

Note even if they report operating profit this year i would still expect that to be loss when you factor in exceptionals and excess capitalistaion over depreciation/amortisation - thats as things stand.

Ok lets wait and see if they have gone from being overegging the situation to being ultra conserative.

[a1canary] 08/4/2024 10:07

Conservative because this company throughout its entire existence has been the very definition of 'jam tomorrow' and most of us investor fools - me included - are STILL waiting for the jam. It has been interminable and most have sensibly given up.
That is why forecasts are conservative, and because we're dealing with very small numbers anyway so in percentage terms they're not that conservative for a tech play like this... that should be doing much better.

[missmimz] 08/4/2024 09:55

Investor Presentation:

Bango is hosting a presentation, open to all existing and potential shareholders, at 10.00am BST today. Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and register to join the call here:

hxxps://www.investormeetcompany.com/bango-plc/register-investor

[6gr] 08/4/2024 09:48

Amusingly - in 2017 Bango did £4m revenue and the share price was higher than today - this shows the madness of the markets.