Bango Share Discussion Threads

[lentjes] 14/2/2024 11:58

Lower volume today, markets up, bango down, lets see what pm brings

[lentjes] 13/2/2024 16:43

As we have seen many times, this is the Bango rollercoaster, I would think after the recent collapse in the share price there are now less shares in general circulation as a large number of PI's would have been taken out, the share price was manipulated up to 2.70 this time last year on 40% less revenue (albeit the same adjusted EBITDA) and fewer deals signed up than we have today

You could see something was brewing all morning, is there a reason or is it just a recovery after being over sold

[amt] 13/2/2024 16:42

It's not often that ludicrous valuations are there for the taking. I have been loading up (averaging down) at about a quid the last few days.

[888icb] 13/2/2024 16:25

Up 10% since 2pm and rising rapidly Up the Leaderboard.

[parob] 13/2/2024 16:13

Amt, it seems that undervaluation is getting noticed today.Technicals looking much better too. I would imagine some technical traders will spot the double bottom and today's volume overnight and buy in tomorrow.

[amt] 13/2/2024 16:08

Bango acquired Billyomobile in 2016 for 3.5m usd a loss making operation. It had 80m EUS at the time. Bango has 120 times that EUS so simple maths would value Bango at 120x 3.5m let's say 400m.
Again another indicator of the undervaluation of Bango

[parob] 13/2/2024 15:46

Double bottoms tend to be powerful reversal signals so hopefully the recovery picks up speed from here.

[lentjes] 13/2/2024 15:13

The 2 x founders were happy at 2.30 last year, I think they can be classed as long term

[parob] 13/2/2024 15:07

This is exactly what you want to see at the second bottom. Volume.I just hope this isn't taken out too cheaply.I mean what price would long term investors be happy with if an offer were to arrive tomorrow?

[parob] 13/2/2024 10:26

Bit more volume coming in today. Let's see if we can start climbing soon from a double bottom on the chart.

[jasperlachat] 13/2/2024 10:11

A nice cup of tea would be a good short term return.

[parob] 13/2/2024 10:01

What do you mean Lentjes?

[lentjes] 13/2/2024 09:46

Something brewing

[amt] 12/2/2024 22:50

I think they will get some license cash on sign up and more as they hit milestones. They said they changed the revenue recognition process hence the shortfall in 2023. Still means they received some cash but don't recognise it immediately as revenue. Maybe a question to ask them if anyone has contact with the FD.
I can't think what else the accounting change could have been.

[lentjes] 12/2/2024 21:08

I suspect until we get clarity/ news on what is going on and a new forecast I think we can expect the share price will continue to drift

[lentjes] 12/2/2024 21:05

amt, I understand the contracts will come with license fees, the question is how much cash burn is required to hit the milestone when Bango can invoice for payment, 4 of the contracts signed last year I would hope have now hit the milestone’s that trigger payment but the 5 signed late December will be several months away from the point of invoice unless there is a signup payment although if that was the case this would have been included in the 2023 TU revenue, if the Docomo integration is still draining more cash than forecast this could be a problem

[amt] 12/2/2024 19:49

Some if not all of those contracts will receive license fees

[lentjes] 12/2/2024 11:49

hopefully the Docomo integration costs are nearly complete so we are now looking at the investment in the DVM for cash burn in the coming months over and above corporate / operating costs, it would be good to get an understanding from Bango on the costs per deal / contract before cash comes in although I doubt this will be provided to protect market competition, Larbey stated they signed 9 contracts last year with 5 in December so unless they get a sign up fee at least 5 will be cash burning without income in the coming months,

Hopefully on the DCB business the billing continues to ramp up now that the Docomo DCB is mostly integrated and should be boosted with the Bango multiplier, also the contribution from the first launches with the Global Tech leader should start to kick in although I would not expect a significant contribution until H2 and into next year.

[ic777] 12/2/2024 09:57

That is why the integrated Bango DCB biz is actually making FCF of some 25-30 mio but it is masked by the corporate overheads, integration costs of Docomo and also the investment into DVM...so just the Bango integrated DCB biz is already worth 2.5-3X the current market cap....

[lentjes] 10/2/2024 08:17

amt, when Boku purchased Furtuma for 40m Fortuma were generating audited revenues of $7.2 million and had an Adjusted EBITDA of $2.3m and an operating profit of $2.1 million and had net assets of $8.7 million.

Based on Bango,s TU they expect to have revenue of $46m and Adjusted EBITDA between $5.- 6m so you could say at todays share price 101.5 we are undervalued for a Take Over value albeit Fortuma appeared on paper to have a higher margin return on a relatively small revenue

I would put the undervalue down to market trust in the Bango BoD following the recent TU debacle

If the Docomo integration costs are almost at an end the Bango BoD now need to normalise the business throughput 2024 and have a full year where the performance of revenue v operational cost = profit is fully transparent following which if all is inline with story the BoD have told us the share price should recover and more.

[amt] 09/2/2024 15:32

Presumably they can adjust the restructuring of the Docomo acquisition in such a way to ensure any further expenditure is timed to a point where they can cover the cash outlay. They could leave the remaining bit that hasn't been transferred to the Bango platform for a few months for example.

[lentjes] 09/2/2024 15:20

If the delay to announcing the date for the H1 results is that the BoD are still checking the remaining Docomo cost to ensure no stone is left unturned how much weight can be given to the statement that they don’t need a cash raise

[amt] 09/2/2024 04:53

At December 2022 Liontrust UK equity had 404,000 shares in Boku. I don't know if it still does but it obviously likes the sector.
Boku paid over usd 40m in 2020 for Fortuma a Direct carrier billing company with an annual turnover of just 7m usd. I would guess EUS of about 1 billion. It shows there is potential in this sector.
That would value Bango at 300m usd relative to turnover. Of course Bango has DVM audiens and a hugely valuable global network with EUS of about 10 billion usd. So Bango must be worth way over 300m usd or about 3 x the current share price today. If it gets back on track in 2025 then I would value it at 5 quid per share in 2025.

[6gr] 08/2/2024 16:58

LionTrust put in two TR1s on two consecutive days, first selling, then buying. They have overall slightly reduced their holding.

[amt] 08/2/2024 16:11

Good to see Liontrust buying. They have a big stake so will know the company inside out.
Why us that Bango shares price goes in waves. Its always made me a lot of money buying on weakness but this time I am well down at the moment.