Bae Systems Share Discussion Threads

[cwa1] 17/4/2014 15:55

Thanks Fabius1-but I'll wait until either the fat lady has sung, or I've banked a profit, before any celebrations begin!

[fabius1] 17/4/2014 15:16

Anyway, well done.

[cwa1] 17/4/2014 15:10

Might well have been "her" turn....BUT she probably didn't need to buy THAT sort of size just to fulfil any communal agreement :-)

[fabius1] 17/4/2014 13:29

Well I've got it wrong so far. Was expecting 370 this morning. Question is, did she jump (grab them) or was she pushed (it's your turn Lynn) if you get my drift!

[cwa1] 17/4/2014 13:14

NOTIFICATION OF TRANSACTIONS OF PERSONS DISCHARGING MANAGERIAL RESPONSIBILITIES OR THEIR CONNECTED PERSONS

Notifications made in accordance with DTR 3.1.4R(1)(a) of the Disclosure Rules and Transparency Rules:

The Company has been notified that Lynn Minella, a Person Discharging Managerial Responsibilities, has today acquired 51,909 ordinary shares of 2.5 pence each in BAE Systems plc at a price of 375.66 pence per share. The transaction took place on the London Stock Exchange.

[hvs] 17/4/2014 12:42

Its CORRUPT to the CORE

All in the NATIONAL interest.

lol !!!

Me a socialist ???

They was providing women formcontracts and how many of the MANAGEMENT got it in ?

Its all in the NATIONAL interest.

[bookbroker] 17/4/2014 11:48

Certainly got somme gaps to fill on way back up!

[fabius1] 16/4/2014 19:05

Essential - Yes. Down a bit to test the support on the weekly downtrend and 200EMA to around 370. Bit of a bounce back to say 400 and then down to test support on the weekly at around 350 or so. Let's see how we go.

[hvs] 16/4/2014 18:17

Is we still CORRUPT ????

Off course all IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST

Like TONY B LIAR decided.

One LAW for the VOTERS and another LAW FOR THE CORRUPT.

Thats NEW LABOUR or shall we say no LABOUR and MORE DOSH.

[essentialinvestor] 16/4/2014 17:19

Nice to see a target achieved Fab, well done.

Unless markets turn here not sure that level will hold, just imv.

[fabius1] 16/4/2014 16:28

My first target was 375 but I always keep an eye on the charts etc. Checked around and 350 popped up which on reflection looks about right on the weekly a bit further down the road. It seems to firming up but I will wait and see how it looks tomorrow. Would like to see signs of some support.

[cwa1] 16/4/2014 15:24

Yup Fabius1, possibly correct :-) Just hoping that at 375, it will look decent value looking back-but no warranties attached to this, modest, purchase! Time will tell....

[fabius1] 16/4/2014 15:10

CWA1

Would rather wait and see. No cheese in the trap and traders all over it.

[cwa1] 16/4/2014 13:22

Doubtless a bit too early but I've dipped a toe in the water here just now. Hopefully represents decent value over the medium term.

[essentialinvestor] 16/4/2014 10:58

Need to consider currency conversion impacting results as well,
the £ keeps getting stronger.

[essentialinvestor] 16/4/2014 10:35

May see that shortly Fab, not sure the wider market pullback is over yet.

[fabius1] 16/4/2014 10:31

Yep. My target of 375 sort of cheats a bit but charts don't know that.

[essentialinvestor] 16/4/2014 10:19

This is x divi today folks, as most will already know.

[dope007] 16/4/2014 10:10

QE Fangorn2 and utter madness in the markets

[wad collector] 16/4/2014 09:37

Sneaking towards buy territory in my book.

[squidsgone] 11/4/2014 20:18

Indian elections might well lead to a change wrt the 'stalled' Rafale negotiations

[fangorn2] 11/4/2014 15:35

Why rising sharply? Declining defence expenditure are the watchwords of the day - crazy I admit, in the face of ever greater instability in the world.

Simply a case of not being able to afford generous welfare and defence of the realm. UK has chosen generous welfare - much to our detriment both now, and the years going forward.

[dafrog] 11/4/2014 14:27

Would expect this to be rising sharply with Russia at the borders. MOD should be submitting UORs and The Treasury releasing money from contingency fund.

[fangorn2] 19/3/2014 11:40

BAE Systems PLC (BA.:LSE): Last: 419.63, up 11.83 (+2.90%),
High: 420.40, Low: 410.20, Volume: 5.07m

UBS overnight
Talking about US spending improving ...

Which was also the gist of an RBC upgrade yesterday, covered in your super soaraway FT this morning.

Here's UBS's notes on what was said.

The main points were

(1) have some visibility in the US for the first time in
three years. Outlook very much as expected (previously believed that US would decline 10-15% from 2012 to 2015, now looks like 14%) and that 2014 would be the bottom for BAE's US sales (or very close to the bottom);

(2) Expect Saudi services to grow as more Typhoons enter service (aftermarket ~3x OE over 30 years);

(3) Expect customer prepayments to bottom in 2014, so should move towards much stronger cash flow in 2015;

(4) Currently a faster buy-back than forecast.


We are currently forecasting 2% decline for most of the US businesses in 2015 and 2016 – if 2014 is the bottom, that could add 0.7p to 2015 EPS and beyond. We are currently forecasting 4% long term growth in Saudi Support, but this could also be conservative with the Typhoon fleet growing at about 10 aircraft per annum (currently 72 Tornados and 34 Typhoons in service) – 2% increase to growth adds 0.4p per share.

Our price target of 460p is based on a fundamental valuation of 487p using cash
conversion of 95%, 5 year profit growth of 2.9% and a WACC of 9%, implying a fair value multiple of 11.1x 2014E EV/EBITA, less a 5% discount for US defence uncertainty to give 463p, rounded down to 460p.

BAE's buying back about a million a day at the moment, I think.