Bae Systems Share Discussion Threads

[lateralam] 13/3/2014 23:11

Not to mention the extra jobs and the infrastructure required to support their families, local spending power etc etc. As I said, good news.

[dafrog] 13/3/2014 22:44

Taxpayers benefit from highly skilled workforce and successful business. Not to mention ability to defend ourselved. Note how many uk surface and air assets are hrlping in the search for lost aircraft.

[miata] 13/3/2014 16:10

Not the taxpayer's.

[lateralam] 13/3/2014 15:25

Surely this latest news is good news in anyone's book?

[lateralam] 13/3/2014 08:04

More nuclear submarine contracts being announced today. Ministerial visit to BAE later.

[fangorn2] 06/3/2014 10:53

Some positive publicity :)



BAE Systems, which has bases throughout the country, is taking on a record 568 apprentices in 2014, the highest intake in its history, and 181 more than it offered in 2013.

[lateralam] 27/2/2014 11:12

He's currently trolling the QPP board too...

[wad collector] 26/2/2014 17:08

Just filter him.

[dafrog] 24/2/2014 19:09

hvs. Typical socialist snot.

[hvs] 24/2/2014 18:07

Is it not CORRUPT to THE CORE ?

[fangorn2] 24/2/2014 15:30

US Air Force awards BAe contract extension to maintain Space Radars.
3-Yr contract extension.
Raises contract value to $540m

[anhar] 24/2/2014 10:52

Many years ago when I worked in the City, a colleague of mine did some proper statistical research to try and establish whether director share buying was an indicator of a short term rising share price for the few months immediately after the transactions but considered only FTSE100 companies.

I recall he found that overall there was no reliable connection at all, concluding that director buying was of no value as a short term share price forecasting mechanism for big caps.

[fangorn2] 21/2/2014 12:22

Another connected persons buy...

Chris Grigg, a non-executive director of the Company, and Fionna Grigg, a connected person, have today jointly acquired 24,555 ordinary shares of 2.5 pence each in BAE Systems plc at a price of 406.38 pence per share.

[fangorn2] 21/2/2014 10:28

Tempus comment for anyone interested....

"Markets hate uncertainty and BAE Systems still has quite a bit of it. Indeed, the picture regarding the outlook for defence spending Stateside is now much clearer, crisp and clean even – but also quite sombre. Back in the UK, things are just about as clear, and sombre too. This is a company whose revenues have grown by just two per cent over the last five years. In its favour, the shares have the support of 1bn pounds in planned cash returns to shareholders in 2014. If the dividend remains flat then the yield on the stock comes in at five per cent. Further, the company's intention is to double the size of its share buyback programme to 400m pounds and the balance sheet, with debt at just 0.3 times EBITA, can take it.

US spending will come back, but that is years away. So to keep its order backlog steady at £43bn it must squeeze more orders out of the UK (not easy) or elsewhere in the global defence market. Hence, the uncertainty remains, writes the Financial Times' Lex column.

US defence spending has fallen but there is more to it than that. The US budget includes a War Support element for supporting troops on the ground that has decreased alongside the withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq. However, after the large falls observed in the last two years the budget is expected to stabilise near year-end 2013 levels. Seen from another angle, the defence spending cuts are about fewer boots on the ground and not about stopping spending on huge new projects such as the F35 Joint Strike Fighter. Even if some such investments in new defence platforms are curtailed (likely) no one knows exactly on which ones the axe will fall.

Firms such as Cobham or BAE which have invested heavily in areas such as cybercrime, or also have strong positions in civil, which would include Rolls-Royce or niche players such as Ultra, should outperform in the longer run. Nevertheless, these are fragile markets with a tendency to overreact, The Times' Tempus says. "

[lateralam] 21/2/2014 08:31

I have. Although I didn't buy quite that many....

[wad collector] 20/2/2014 17:32

Follow the Leader?

[fangorn2] 20/2/2014 15:48

The Company has been notified that Sir Roger Carr, the Company's Chairman, has today acquired 50,246 ordinary shares of 2.5 pence each in BAE Systems plc at a price of 398.04 pence per share

[dafrog] 20/2/2014 15:21

bookbroker. Do not agree. Many nations build aircraft but few can build nuclear subs, military aircraft, UAVs and all the other capabilities that BA. has. For the UK to be left with no commercial aircraft industry, save a few wings, is bad enough but to lose our Defence industry would be a disaster.

[bookbroker] 20/2/2014 14:54

This is where that merger with EADS would have come in handy, to heck with the British defence champion and all that, commercial airline business the place to be now, a bit of an overreaction to a minor adjustment in EPS going forward, Jefferies has a point about there being more clarity in the business!

[fabius1] 20/2/2014 13:15

Miata - Yep. Good company with good job description. Expecting a test 375-350 long term trend support for a top up.

PS - Seem to have misjudged TA on RDSB & BLT. Think we have seen a switch out of overvalued stocks into keener value. Seems the above have also broken out of their wedge. Was expecting one more drop before the breakout. Could be some blue sky to come on them if support is OK. Still feel ULVR could come in for a bit of stick to bring it in line with 200EMA weekly.

[miata] 20/2/2014 12:58

Jefferies
The storms of US Defence cuts and Sequester have passed, but their shadows linger in FY14. We estimate BAE's FY14 guidance points to EBIT perhaps 7-8% below our forecast of £1,900m and EPS around 4-5% lower than our forecast 40.8p. We do, however, have much greater clarity, an encouraging order backlog, a lower pension deficit and end FY13, net debt of £699m versus our forecast of £1,496m. We believe it all amounts to a creditable, honourable draw.

A break in the clouds. We are painfully aware that the equity market appears not to relish downgrades to forecasts, but BAE is not a high PER growth story that has faltered. The FY14 dividend of 20.1p is as we forecast. Agreement of the Saudi VoP promises increased sharebuy activity in FY14, in our view. We believe FY14 may be the year in which BAE's fortunes turn for the better. The increase in the order backlog from £39.1bn at end FY11 to £42.4bn at end FY12 and now to £42.7bn at end FY13 appears to support that assertion. Defence businesses, unfortunately, do not turn on a sixpence, so US Defence cuts appear likely to weigh heavily again on the FY14 results of Land & Armaments, although developments in Electronic Systems, Cyber & Intelligence and US Support Solutions are more encouraging in the medium-term, in our view. We believe the increase in the order backlog of Platforms & Services (International) from £9.3bn at end FY12 to £12.3bn at end FY13 is plainly encouraging. While BAE's FY14 guidance implies that does not immediately translate into higher revenues, it must do so in time, in our view.

The FY13 results in brief. Group sales rose from £17,834m to £18,180m versus our forecast of £18,715m, but the latter assumed US$1.55/£ for 2H13. Group underlying EBITA rose from £1,895m to £1,925m compared with our forecast of £1,997m, but we did not anticipate a provision of US$76m in US Support Solutions in respect of loss-making contracts (the provision appears to relate to the Radford munitions facility and to commercial shipbuild). Underlying EPS of 42p compares with our forecast of 41.9p and the FY13 dividend of 20.1p is as we forecast. There is also a goodwill write down of £865m that we suspect must relate to Land & Armaments and Intelligence & Security. We venture the former because of the FY14 guidance and the latter because a number of BAE's US-based peers have recently made similar revisions. On the other hand, the pension deficit has fallen from £4,560m at end FY12 through £4,287m at end 1H13 to £3,509m at end FY13. Across the divisions, there are some variances against our forecasts, but aside from the US$76m provision noted above, none that are material or perplexing, in our view.

Downgrade, but does it matter? To be honest, we didn't change our BAE forecasts for every development during FY13, even though none was overtly positive and despite our being aware that agreement on Saudi VoP would mean that FY13 EBIT enjoyed a catch-up effect that would raise the bar for BAE going into FY14. In short, we placed a higher value on BAE coming to enjoy greater certainty. The equity market does appear to dislike uncertainty even more than a 4-5% downgrade to EPS, at least that is our assessment. So, we believe BAE's US-based businesses will hit bottom in FY14. That, along with agreement on Saudi VoP has materially improved BAE's visibility – including that visibility required to progress the share buy-back, in our view. We suspect consensus forecasts for FY13 and FY14 have been muddied by differing assumptions on the Saudi VoP, but we hazard the implied changes to our own FY14 forecasts are representative. The implied downgrade could matter today and in the next few weeks, but against a more certain backdrop, the lower pension deficit, the much lower than we forecast end FY13 net debt and the higher order backlog, we believe any impact will be short-term.

[wad collector] 20/2/2014 11:47

Ouch.
Well , I guess most of us hold it for the yield so the share price is not that relevant. Providing the yield continues.

[zeppo] 20/2/2014 11:19

Be a relief to see it at £4.00.

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