Avon Protection Share Discussion Threads

[scepticalinvestor] 16/11/2021 09:40

Well sold out at 1107. Been a lovely ride from 940

[jdh1602] 15/11/2021 16:27

Time for a Co. rename to Avon Exposure...

[average down mug] 15/11/2021 15:44

🤡☝A039;looks like you going to finish on a day high! Well done bodes well for tomorrow another 20%?? Gl holders I only have £1k in looking for a free Chinese at 1300

[fuji99] 15/11/2021 15:28

Jeffian- What I meant by "management" are mainly the CEO and the CFO. Technical Managers leading R & D, Design and Testing are the ones who are responsible as they are those following up the product from design to testing, not the CEO or the CFO. Of course these two are informed by the progress on a regular basis. Concerning the failure, we cannot predict in advance the result thus cannot "be aware" of the pass/fail outcome until we actually complete testing. Thus why a thorough investigation is a must to determine the cause and the source of the failure. As you rightly said, these are "life critical" products if not meeting the pass criteria can kill people. So the pass/fail criteria for a specific application set by the client are stringent and tough and could be different for each type of gun/caliber, bullet speed etc. In any case this part of the business is less than 20% and the share price has actually spiked down as if almost 50% of the business has experienced failure.

[monte1] 15/11/2021 15:25

Perhaps internal testing was carried out with a spud gun rather than the M16 of the Client testing team?

[jeffian] 15/11/2021 14:56

"The management cannot predict or control the outcome of test results of a product."

That's a rather extraordinary statement! Surely any company would ensure that their products - particularly life-critical ones like this - are to spec and meet test requirements before offering them to the testing authorities and the client. I'm with roguetraderuk on this; it is a huge failure of management, particularly as it is clear from the TU of 24/9 that they were blissfully unaware that there was a problem.

[conwyrebel] 15/11/2021 14:48

Slam dunk takeover tgt and over reaction by investors.

[itisonlymoney] 15/11/2021 14:36

What's the general feeling here? Retrace back to the 1500p area or is this a dead cat bounce? I'm getting the impression that the body armour part of the business is only a sixth of total forecast revenue - is that right? Would a drop of 300p on Friday have been more representative?

[richardly] 15/11/2021 13:58

SMCNI1968 where's the reference for that post (please)?

[justiceforthemany] 15/11/2021 13:57

The $90M paid to 3M in 2019 included the higher margin ballistics/helmet business and was not solely the body armour business which may or may not be wound down - even in this worst case scenario looking at $40-$50M balance sheet writedown, mainly goodwill. Total assets >$400M and Debt to equity currently <1 which is v.solid. The company needs to liaise closely with the US DoD and find out how minor or significant the issues are - or find another buyer who is not as stringent.

[richardly] 15/11/2021 13:56

I posted this link weeks/months ago I believe; that analysis is still just as relevant, although updated 3 days ago, but no one here took any notice then! hxxps://www.thetwentiestrader.com/post/unmasking-avon-rubber

[fuji99] 15/11/2021 13:48

@rogue - The management cannot predict or control the outcome of test results of a product. The only important task left to the management now is to request from the technical department a thorough investigation to find out the source of the failure then solve the issue as soon as possible and make sure this is followed up to the letter. Failures during testing happen all the time everywhere. Testing is mainly a tool to detect weaknesses within a product/system. The results will allow to detect the source, refine and improve the product. Without testing the theory is sterile; without theory, testing is blind - all coming from "Theory without practice is sterile and practice without theory is blind".

[average down mug] 15/11/2021 13:48

🤡☝A039;dam and blast saw this Friday thought jump in Monday forgot about it der! I like to see short scum burn so I’m having a dabble 11.00 for a trade ! Gl holders

[justiceforthemany] 15/11/2021 13:34

Regardless of what happens from here with shares up 20% I think those posting highly negative comments all weekend and making ridiculous predictions of 300p should be very ashamed of themselves. You know who you are.

[hamhamham1] 15/11/2021 13:21

Buyout by US Equity firm on the cards IMO.
Interesting 12 months ahead.

[dope007] 15/11/2021 13:05

1942p? whose line of stock are they getting rid of then?

[plastow] 15/11/2021 13:04

Nice DCB lots of uncertaintys best stay away

[roguetraderuk] 15/11/2021 13:01

the most worrying thing about this one is that a month ago they didnt have an inkling when they updated. this was out of the blue for them. management is in question here and it looks like with the strategic review, they are themselves wondering whether they can provide an edge here. until that comes through its a dice roller.

[smcni1968] 15/11/2021 12:33

Avon Protection plc (AVON LN, Buy) - Time to make a decision. We have reached a point when we need an outcome, one way or the other, through the strategic review. We believe that the core protection and helmet product business is world-class and in our forecasts we fully strip out the body armor contribution to focus on the key areas. The global Chemical, Biological, Radiologcal and Nuclear (CBRN) threat level is not decreasing and Avon's advanced portfolio remains increasingly relevant. We continue to see further consolidation in the defence sector, and a streamlined Avon could well play a further part in that, potentially providing a floor to the stock price. Maintain Buy rating and reduce target price from 2400p to 1942p on lower estimates.

[hamhamham1] 15/11/2021 12:02

Buyers coming back in

[fuji99] 15/11/2021 10:53

IMO they will even consider selling the whole business in their review ...

[jdh1602] 15/11/2021 10:07

I suspect the share price now accurately reflects the risk/reward. Big unknowns still, but such a huge drop that a lot of bad news must have been accounted for, and back to the share price before they entered the US defense scene...

[fuji99] 15/11/2021 09:48

The sharp drop last Friday was probably due to triggered stop losses. When really battered, this should not go below £15, a logical level without stop losses that caused the spike down which was followed by panicky PI selling to take it 51% lower.

[arja] 15/11/2021 09:39

quite a bounce today which seemed likely but maybe just a DCB !

[dope007] 15/11/2021 09:12

fuji it is still valued at 2x sales. I have no position, have been watching, but never bought on valuation grounds.

I will continue to watch but need far more clarity and still believe after that latest fiasco this is not worth the risk until we have that clarity. I can see this being much lower, especially if the general mkt turns south