Avon Protection Share Discussion Threads

[mallorca 9] 26/8/2021 08:53

I will actually predict a strong rise.

With all the world uncertainty this is a critical business that would not be allowed to fail. Demand will only increase as will profit margins.
Becoming more of a takeover target every day.

I'm in at this level. When it turns, the daily rises will be steep.

[disc0dave45] 25/8/2021 20:32

Yep I had 75p'ish too, a PE of 25. Wouldn't disagree with the 2022 - 2023 numbers either but it's whether more profit warnings are around the corner.Held these previously but sold as getting hot and IMO their organic growth had slowed significantly anyway. So irrespective of their current issues their growth was never sustainable at such an elevated rating.If this drops to below say £14 I might re-enter but on its current rating and the risks around further warnings then happy to simply sit on my hands and watch.All the best.

[jeffian] 25/8/2021 18:42

What eps are you guys using for calculating PER? I haven't seen any analysts' forecasts but the figures put out by Avon in their profit warning (sorry, 'Trading Update'!) suggest current year revenues of $252.5m (mid), $44.2m EBITDA and, say, $32m net profit = $1.03/share = 75p/share. That's around 25.75 PER. That should recover to £1-£1.25/share in 2022 (depending on whether they can get the profit margin back from 17.5% to the previous 22%) giving a 2022 PER of 15-18 presumably falling again in 2023 (I don't know what their 'previous guidance' for that year was).

Given the uncertainties around solving the armour failure, supply chain issues and costs (if they are struggling to recruit staff), the market is unlikely to be forgiving in the short term and look too far ahead, but I would have thought the above (if I've got it right!) is a reasonably sound basis to support the share price around the current level and if they do recover to forecast figures by 2023, the share price should start to recover in due course. The other thing about this company, it has no debt and is cash-generative - a rarity in my experience.

[disc0dave45] 24/8/2021 21:22

I've got a forward PE of 25

[blueflex2] 24/8/2021 17:15

PE is approx. 25 based on the closing price divide by the adjusted earnings per share for the previous financial year. If it is calculated trailing month, PE ratio is approx 4.25. Anyone can shed light on the difference and have any thought on this value?

[disc0dave45] 24/8/2021 14:52

Agree, quick calcs and this is still on a PE of about 25, the FTSE allshare is on 17.Will keep watching!.

[walkernbudgie] 24/8/2021 13:39

I agree with what was said in the article about the complany though I felt that it implied that the price has gone down so much it will go up again because its a great company etc. What it did not mention was the historic valuation meant that some of the fundamental ratios were just off the scale. At the current price these ratios are still not attractive to some.

Goldmans and JP Morgan still shorting and Worldquant entered a new short position just a couple of days ago. Will be keeping an eye out for those dissapearing.

Interesting times for this stock, I suspect there are a few people with their finger on the trigger hopeful that it will return to previous levels.

[r2oo] 24/8/2021 10:48

Interesting article.Could this be the bottom of the dip and time to top up? Plenty of support on the chart here.This is a solid business and a great long term hold. IMOWould like to hear from some well informed Chartists though...

[bingaxu] 24/8/2021 00:03

https://www.economywatch.com/news/avon-protection-share-price-forecast-august-2021-time-to-buy-avon/

[12toes] 23/8/2021 09:16

Hey warren buffet The tool with the most inappropriate name BWAHAHAHA

[warrenbuffet73] 22/8/2021 19:07

12 Toes you’re such a funny guy. Lovely to hear from you again lol. It’s so positive to exchange views on here with people like here, an absolute pleasure and an education. Keep posting mate, it’s so entertaining

[p1nkfish] 22/8/2021 15:09

In all probability but how to value and how long before an offer.

If based on average share price plus premium it will be after it has settled for a fair few days - 30 days plus AFTER settling so there is some sensible average and due diligence?

Early 2022?

[conwyrebel] 22/8/2021 13:39

It’s a takeover tgt

[p1nkfish] 22/8/2021 12:29

When a company drops the ball like this, even if they recover results within a quarter, it usually takes 9-36 months for the share price to come back. This, imho, is > 9 months, no matter what gets posted here. Good chance this is 18 months plus and along the way a market correction is very possible.

There was a research report on recoveries some time back, sorry I don't remember where from, but I do remember the summary.

The other factor here is over valuation prior to dropping the ball that might also impact recovery time.

[dope007] 22/8/2021 11:57

At £19 and looking at past profits this still looks expensive, so maybe I am missing something on the growth potential side. Have them on my watch list but need to see them lower before taking a position

[rookieswingtrader2020] 21/8/2021 15:56

Hi all - thanks for the helpful posts re AVON. This is my first ever ADVFN post. I’ve been swing-trading since 2020 but have only registered with ADVFN today. I regret to say that I bought AVON on Fri 13/08 afternoon, and have (for the time being) sold on Fri 20/08, after an 11.9% decline between my entry & exit prices. The strategy was of course to seek a partial recovery after a decline which I had perceived to be overreactive. But as proven here, I have a bad habit of prematurely judging a decline to be finished when it is not. With no disrespect to current holders, I would be hoping for at least some further decline (at least sufficient to cover my exit & re-entry costs) so that this “sale & repurchase” move which I am currently halfway through can at least be beneficial. GLA.

[12toes] 20/8/2021 14:36

You were shouting your big fat stupid month off about buying after the fall You thought you were clever but got bitten by a dead cat bounce you mug And now you are lying because you are so embarrassed As you call yourself Warren Buffett Absolutely hilarious BWAHAHAHA

[conwyrebel] 20/8/2021 13:08

Avon is a slam dunk takeover target and oversold imho. With all the USA PE money floating around I don’t think stock should be viewed solely on fundamentals

[12toes] 20/8/2021 11:24

1902p Wheres Warren Buffett 73 ??? BWAHAHAHA

[pugugly] 20/8/2021 10:00

Analysts unhappy = Jefferies lowside 1670 - Investec - Target 1745 0 Edison as usual no target but note gives feeling of great caution (imo)

For once And unusually Buywell might be calling correctly - fear of the unknown can bring down even the strongest stocks. and AVON seems to have weak roots. (e&oe) and DYOR

[walkernbudgie] 20/8/2021 08:58

Worldquant has taken out a fresh short position equalling Goldmans size. JPM short remains in place. Take from that what you will.

[p1nkfish] 19/8/2021 23:31

With all the trouble in the world (too much to list) can't you pair kiss and make up or just turn the other cheek. Please.

[12toes] 19/8/2021 20:10

You were boasting about buying on Friday You got mugged off by a dead cat bounce you muppet Total amateur Morons like you will always lose money

[davr0s] 19/8/2021 19:09

There was a well known Twitter investor some time ago repeatedly saying that Avon never goes down. Hope he is out a long time ago as they all come back down to earth at some point