Avon Protection Share Discussion Threads

[fuji99] 13/11/2021 11:15

Go to top of the screen and click on "Financials" and you will see the estimated PE of 2.0 appear following the blood bath.

[justiceforthemany] 13/11/2021 11:11

FY 2022E

Revenue $328.9M
EBITDA $71.5M
PBT $46.8M
EPS 122.2c

Stronger than expected cash conversion of c 80% leaves adjusted net debt at $27m (excluding lease liabilities) at end September with revenue growth in Military respiratory revenues (+10%)

14 day RSI 10
7 day RSI 3

[terminator101] 13/11/2021 11:00

It amazes me what drivel the amateur investors come up with. PE ratio close to 2 huh? Let's test that claim: Revenue was going to be $250 now $40 m lower. Convert to GBP and that's £156EBITDA margin = 15-16% = £25m Current mcap = £287mThat means its trading at a PE of over 11It no wonder that people lose their shirts. Take account of debt, that its not growing now and write downs and this fluff is still way overvalued.

[fuji99] 13/11/2021 10:13

51% drop is overdone. Its PE ratio is now close to 2. This is very cheap now as its body armour is only 15% of the business and the helmet protection and respiratory businesses are unaffected. This will recover within months if not taken over. The market cap is only 287 million. For less than 800 million takover bid, the share price would be in the region of £25+. I don't want to miss the opportunity so I am buying and will store in my ISA for 1/2 years if not taken over by then.

[p1nkfish] 13/11/2021 09:16

Absolutely and any downsizing will cost. Haven't checked, is there any goodwill element to be taken down to zero too?

[terminator101] 13/11/2021 09:08

The point everyone is missing here is not that the armour was only 15% of revenue which they won't book now, but the overheads of the whole (non revenue generating) division will now be spread over the rest of the company. That's a much bigger impact than 15%

[pdwop] 13/11/2021 08:44

The magnitude of the share price fall reflects the hit to the reputation of the company and the substandard stewardship.

[smcni1968] 13/11/2021 01:29

My dad used their condoms

[p1nkfish] 12/11/2021 22:57

What about the expected contribution to growth that influenced the forward multiple?
The problem for me is that's its the 2nd blow, the first being supply chains.
There's a level of clulessness at play here.

[morti1] 12/11/2021 22:27

As pointed out by Jefferies the broker, body armour accounts for around 15% of group sales and suggested up to 10%-to-15% of its forecast group earnings could be at risk in the September 2022 and September 2023 financial years.

If only 10-15% of forecast group earnings are now at risk, surely the share price falling more than 47 % today on the back of this news, is just absurd!

[buywell3] 12/11/2021 21:02

The BIG recent share price rise was due to the move into body armor

It is not inconceivable that now the company might want to completely/exit/walk away from this area

However one wonders what the contracts signed say ?
Do they allow the company to walk away from its contractual commitments and if there is a break clause how much will it cost in compensation ??

buywell opines a write-down is likely coming in the next set of audited results
As has been said the damage to the brand will also be considerable depending upon the body armor outcomes

One wonders if there might have been unforeseen issues when the acquisition was made
What did due diligence find ?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


dyor imo

[afingeroffudge] 12/11/2021 20:58

Wow, this share is deserving of fudge status more than most .
I am the fudge master and I rate this share as worthy of fudge.
Free fudge for all holders.
See if you can nibble off the chocolate before you get to the fudge.

[pdwop] 12/11/2021 20:54

Yes, company-sponsored analyst reports are spectacularly useless!Managerial accountability to shareholders sadly lacking at Avon. Damage to reputation has financial repercussions. Especially with a limited customer base.

[danmart2] 12/11/2021 20:42

SP likely to fall further, still looks an over valued company.

Long term it could be a solid investment but crazy to buy in at current SP

[p1nkfish] 12/11/2021 20:31

Paid for research, by the company?

Directors didn't get their buys right so no doubt they would love a paid for note to encourage a higher price.

[justiceforthemany] 12/11/2021 20:23

EDISON RESEARCH



FY22
Revenue $329
PBT $47M
EPS 122c/91p
Forward P/E 10

Revenue will now be c.12% lower (not 15%) - extreme shorting attack today IMO - this is no meme stock or BTC
The armour division was bought from 3M for $90M; net assets/equity H1 2021 $215M

[bad robot] 12/11/2021 20:11

Please do not forget to everyone my prediction on AMI from 250p to administration.

Yes Robzim kept topping from 250p till administration.





ROBIZM12 Nov '21 - 16:51 - 471 of 479

Bad Robot actually got one of his predictions right. It is still only 1 correct out of hundreds.

[gripfit] 12/11/2021 19:32

the average down brigade haven't joined yet...

[gripfit] 12/11/2021 19:30

it could be a takeover bid to be fair.. but mkt cap is still heavy... £6 and im in..

[volvo] 12/11/2021 19:01

My two penny worth, fwiw, bought sold, bought sold......always thought the directors were slightly disingenuous.

Today, not my kind of company, uninvestable.

Sure it will bounce back but not for me

[gripfit] 12/11/2021 18:29

£6.....

[disc0dave45] 12/11/2021 18:19

So the market valued the business at £8 when their earnings were 55p.Forecast this FY was (emphasis on was) 53p.....so you reckon the market will value this business higher now they've issued a profit warning, delayed results, gone Ex growth, still on a high rating, and are carrying out a strategic review of the business!.Oh dear, someone is in a bad mood.Just a small point, but 2015 was 6 years ago m'lad.....I see you are mathematically challenged as well as rude.FILTERED

[justiceforthemany] 12/11/2021 18:18

Fair point EI confidence in management/CEO will obviously be hit after this but the fall of >50% does seem disproportionate - this company is hardly saddled with debt (net cash position until 3M acquisition) and D/E ratio is below 1. Equity Ratio of 2. Even with a write down this should not change significantly. 85% revenues from sectors they have been successfully operating in for many years & as Jefferies pointed out have the highest margins. Operating in a highly defensive sector to boot.