Avon Protection Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 12/11/2021 17:32

The reaction to the failure of the body armour tests was completely foreseeable -

(jeffian - 10 Sep 2021 - 09:49:39 - 999 of 1030 Avon calling - preparing to breakout - AVON
.........the big issue remaining is the body armour tests. If they get the all-clear and can start supplying, I think most of the downside risk is covered, but if the body-armour fails its tests again, all bets are off. Fingers firmly X-ed!)

- but what really hacks me off is the Trading Update of 24 September suggesting that the problems had been resolved and orders would start to flow. That was patently untrue, so management were either lying or out of touch with this part of the business. Given that RNS statements are supposed to be sacrosanct, I trust the authorities will be looking into that one.

[scepticalinvestor] 12/11/2021 17:05

That was 7 years ago dork!

[robizm] 12/11/2021 16:51

Bad Robot actually got one of his predictions right. It is still only 1 correct out of hundreds.

[justiceforthemany] 12/11/2021 16:51

Founded 1885
Produced 20M gas masks for UK during WW2
Listed LSE 1949

[disc0dave45] 12/11/2021 16:47

Oh, historical facts is now clutching at straws....whatever m'lad.

[malcolm caton] 12/11/2021 16:40

According to FT the body armour is 15% of turnover,Sold out in Sept for a small loss,couldn't sit on by hands anylonger bought back in at 928 including costs,Now to keep my fingers crossed for an increase in price

[bad robot] 12/11/2021 16:40

Bad Robot12 Nov '21 - 13:05 - 436 of 466 Edit


what a dog. No buyers, there were some large sells at 1100p. This will go sub 1000p. Just like dog BOTB, selling will continue for weeks.


BR
IN BR WE TRUST
RED MERCURY CREW

[fuji99] 12/11/2021 16:36

My guess is that for any holder, patience is a must for at least one year. Then either it'll pick up again or end up taken over. There is no doubt it has excellent segments of technology where barriers are high.

[scepticalinvestor] 12/11/2021 16:34

Lol clutching at straws Dave m'lad

[disc0dave45] 12/11/2021 16:32

In 2015 their adjusted eps was 55p (shares in issue 31m). The share price was around £8. Forecast FY21 was 53p which could be in question now.IMO this has further to go as ex growth issuing profit warnings. DYOR

[p1nkfish] 12/11/2021 16:31

Possible bounce and another leg down.

[someuwin] 12/11/2021 16:24

Oversold. I'm buying

[scepticalinvestor] 12/11/2021 16:22

Your loss, plank

[jw330] 12/11/2021 16:20

too early to catch this falling knife however I've started to keep tabs here. Maybe worth a punt when the excitement settles

[jdh1602] 12/11/2021 16:17

From our friends at IC:

"The company’s assertion that it would soon begin deliveries of body armour to the DLA was cited in our Investment Ideas section earlier this month as a sign that the peril in its transformation might be nearing its end. If the company could successfully negotiate its way through the minefield, its share price was likely to pick up again, we argued. It couldn’t, and it didn’t.

Given the scale of the sell-off that’s already taken place, we recommend investors hold until the company gives a clearer picture of the fallout in its full-year results."

[justiceforthemany] 12/11/2021 16:16

Trading at around 1.5x book value
Interestingly CEO and board were buying as recently as September.
Chart wise Sept 2017 939-940p seemed to provide some support.
Volume 2000% vs average so RSI is now super low around 4

[disc0dave45] 12/11/2021 16:15

Agree, that's why I sold up in early Dec 2020.I note that brokers have a 86% increase in eps for FY22, don't know how much armour contributed to this but perhaps that's why it's been hammered, that growth is in question now as well.This is a quality business that seems to have lost its way a bit but it has been struggling to maintain its growth for a couple of years now.Be interesting to see their FY21 results and outlook in Dec, will wait until then.

[essentialinvestor] 12/11/2021 16:08

Dave, the rating pre first warning was extraordinary, particularly for this sector
which tends to trade on modest earnings multiples.

Luck to anyone trying to catch a low, but would not look at the price a
few months back as any guide to valuation.

[scepticalinvestor] 12/11/2021 15:59

Ridiculous now - bought in at 921

[disc0dave45] 12/11/2021 15:58

It may only be circa 12% of their revenue but it's clear they have major production as well as managerial issues which could be costly to put right. How many other customers, not just for armour, will be questioning the quality of their products, it's not just about the 12%.As EI has posted it's their credibility and reputation on the line.I'll wait to see what they say in Dec, it may have overshot to the downside but nothing is clear at this stage and the long term damage could be very costly and take them a long time to recover. This was a quality growth business that was rated accordingly and that's in shatters now, so no point looking back and thinking this is a bargain, IMO based on what we think we know it's still fairly highly rated at 20x.DYOR

[terminator101] 12/11/2021 15:52

Guess that nobody wants to hold this dog over the weekend. Profit warnings rarely come in two's

[essentialinvestor] 12/11/2021 15:51

Because credibility is arguably shot through.


Is there a liability if they can't deliver the product?, way too many uncertainties.

[justiceforthemany] 12/11/2021 15:44

If such a small part of the overall business why are shares down >50%?

This stock was at £44 as recently as December 2020
What does this say about the stock market?

[mallorca 9] 12/11/2021 15:42

Im in.
Looking at recent substantial Chief Exec buys as £20.