Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[cinoib] 18/4/2006 08:23

Dixi,
Phillis answered that for you, ask again in 5 years then I could have an answer to that. Meanwhile gold at new high overnight, $618.

[saucepan] 17/4/2006 14:58

Agreed, brad; looking good.

[brad1] 17/4/2006 14:23

will be very interesting seeing the opening price and end of day close for avm tomorrow, with gold breaking 25 year high. this could start to enter new territory in the near future and break all time high. I still believe that we are due an announcement soon with regard to either bringing another mine into production, for example, as AVM took out the options in order to improve near term cash flow - but surely for a specific reason!

[jeddah jo] 17/4/2006 13:51

Well 10 year U.S Treasury bond yield hit 5% at the same time Gold hit $600. There is no going back now, it almost seems inevitable we will have a rerun of the markets prevalent from the early 70s to the early 80s.

You would naturally assume that a 0% yielding asset would have a tough time in a rising interest environment. Not so, look at this long term chart for the 10yr



We had rising interest rates throughout the last great gold bull market, and that is exactly what we have now. Mapping it year for year, it would seem Gold might dip quite severely for a year or two in 2007/2008 before it starts its final parabollic leg up taking us to year 2012.

[phillis] 16/4/2006 18:26

Dixi - GFM not planning any gold production in the forseeable future. Too busy maximising zinc con output

[dixi] 16/4/2006 09:57

Cinoib - (sorry off topic again) - any idea how many oz's GFM expect to produce from Caiyjing per annum of gold?

Thanks in advance.

[kojak78] 15/4/2006 17:28

tonystring,
AVM didn't produce 300,000 in 2006, financial 2006 is over since end of March.

300,000 was very ambitious and if Jilau ops had lived up to anticipations AVM would be very close, annualized production is now somewhere in the 220 to 230000 oz range. ZGC produced only ca. 40000 instead of 100000 anticipated full production. The undervalued 300,000 oz producer was the investment story of the past, AVM has mode so much progress in the exploration and reserves department that we have higher price targets now. 300000 will come over time as well as the 400000 level. Jilau + Penjom + Riska + Taror/Chore is 410000 ozs before minority interests.

[cinoib] 15/4/2006 12:31

Dixi,
Yes,yes and no not yet as the gold is under the zinc but as I said of a far superior grade to Avm. So pay your money and take your choice, or do as I do and split it down the middle.

[tonystringy] 14/4/2006 22:17

Just looking in.....are AVM still expecting to be producing 300moz in 2006?

[kojak78] 14/4/2006 13:13

Happy Easter Saucepan,

don't forget "Year End and Fourth Quarter Gold production", May 6th 2005.. not too far off now. I think earnings could put mild short-term pressure on the share price as earnings for last year will probably be in the 12 cent range, lower gold prices, hedging, not full production etc. all of which is now gone. But if AVM intends to pay a dividend they could put that information into the earnings release and that would IMHO lead to a skyrocketing share price, if they don't pay just a symbolic dividend (Taror/Chore feasibility means capex for building the plants, but that far in the future and until then AVM will make tons of money) AVM has the potential to have the highest dividend yield in the whole gold stock universe.

Just imagine that! Many folks would just lean back and refuse to trade AVM. They would cash in dividend after dividend and reinvest that money into other gold stocks in order to diversify or even back into AVM shares.

Of course they could do a share buy-back instead of paying dividends as well.

[saucepan] 14/4/2006 07:41

The latest mini chart development is rather similar to the pattern in February, after we had shot up past the 140p level. A few weak holders/profit takers were shaken out then.

In fact, I took profits at that earlier juncture - as reported at the time - in case there was a slide back to test 100p, and bought back in again within days, as soon as it became evident that a new upleg was on the cards. The exercise was hardly worth the while, as I also admitted previously. This gave me the confidence to ride out any subsequent volatility.

My instinct is that the same is happening to the chart now, after the further major rise. I was very encouraged by yesterday's late uptick, after another sharp mark down earlier in the day.

190p now looks like it might be a support level. If Budevenviser's intelligence is correct (and with gold looking ready for another test of $600) next week might be a good one.

In the longer term, there must be good chances of further company specific news developments, too, before too long: additional resource upgrades, mergers/acquisitions, new exploration developments, etc. I am confident AVM management will be exploring every avenue to increase shareholder value. Earlier RNS announcements have hinted at what might be to come in the above regard.

Happy Easter everyone.

[dixi] 13/4/2006 21:00

Cinoib - that would take GFM close to 1 bill mcap - is that a realistic valuation - can they generate enough profit for a reasonable p/e once production is settled?

This would also be nearly double AVM mcap with both at your quoted £5. Not sure if GFM will be double the valuation of AVM as things currently stand.

Have GFM poured any gold yet - I am a bit out of touch with progess?

[cinoib] 13/4/2006 19:50

Dixi,
Yes I do expect Gfm to be higher by results, £1 is my target. In mt book this and Gfm are the best 2 low cost minning shares on the go at present and I hold both long term, also trade both as and when the oppotunity arrises in order to make some more dosh to buy more of both for the long term. As my short term goal for gold is $700 (end 2006) this should be a good play, but as the price of zinc is soaring and Gfm has both zinc, (minning now) and large depossits of gold at 3 times+ the grade out of Avm then that has to be the favourite to hit £5 first probably by late 2007.My view only

[supersturrock] 13/4/2006 17:57

Fellow AVMers and gold bugs generally should beg, steal or borrow a copy of today's Torygraph. Centre pages of Business section carries an excellent article on gold and gold shares by Ambrose Evans- Pritchard. Basic conclusion is that Chinese and Russians will abandon diversifying out of the Dollar into the Euro because the weaker Euro members led by France and Italy are blocking any necessary Euro rate rises. Apparently, Putin has ordered the central bank to increase gold element of reserves from 5 % to 10 %.

[kickstart] 13/4/2006 17:26

DIXI,
Wait intil the GFM crowd realise AVM is much better value at this point. Producing 200k oz of gold a year, making a profit unlike many of the big boys and growing fast.
This board will be as busy !

On another note looks like my timing was perfect I think they were 180/3 when I made the earlier comment. I bought 10,000 at 183 ( courage of my convictions ). Good buying volume this afternoon should have scared off any shorts.

[budevenwiser] 13/4/2006 17:10

have just heard that evo will put out a revised buy note for avm on tuesday , should think so and all with the price of gold
off topic anyone looked at ugy been doing a few calcs on them ,100 000 ounces a year at $200 per ounce , self funded exploration also could have a large nickle discovery could be a real wild card
started buying a few a couple of weeks ago

[dixi] 13/4/2006 16:38

Cinoib - do you see better value in GFM than AVM? I assume you expect GFM to also be higher in May post results?

I personally feel AVM has overall better value then GFM. But I would not chose to knock GFM either in respect of what these 2 companies are doing.

GFM certainly has the edge with investor interest right now - the BB bears that out!

[cinoib] 13/4/2006 15:17

Kickstart,
I agree and have already topped up at 182ish. Will be happy with 220by mid May then take profitt and buy more Gfm with it.

[dixi] 13/4/2006 14:44

Indeed it could well be!

If I am to add I expect it will be the other side of £2.00 - especially if looking strong. Simply cannot move on any stocks right now!

[kickstart] 13/4/2006 14:38

My timing was pretty good ?

[kickstart] 13/4/2006 13:36

I doubt we willo get to 170p I think you can forget the chart. I reckon we are close to a bounce.

[kojak78] 13/4/2006 13:12

Penjom: 4 years open-pit + 3 years underground, 7 * .12m = .84 ozs production
North Lanut: 5 years .06m, 5 * .06m * 80% = .24 ozs production
= 1.08 mio ozs attr. production = 1.2m ozs reserves at cash costs sub 200 (Penjom has neary all open pit production left in stockpiles at $200 cash costs over the remaining mine life)
Jilau: 1.1m ozs reserves + 0.4ozs low grade reserves (dump leaching) = 1.5m ozs reserves, 75% = 1.125m ozs
Bakan: 1m ozs reserves, 80% = .8m ozs reserves
Taror/Chore: 2m ozs reserves, 75% = 1.5m attr. ozs

1.2m + 1.125m + .8m + 1.5m = 4.625m ozs attributable reserves.

plus 10m ozs Russian categories in Tajikistan + Idenburg will replace production for years to come.

At 405p per share, 110m shares fully diluted AVM trades at only $170 per reserve oz, still way below average price per oz and with cash costs within the industry average ($250 for Taror/Chore, $300-350 for Jilau and $200 for the other mines, average $250/oz).

They only need to get Bakan and T/C to feasibility level and bring the reserves into JORC standards.

[kojak78] 13/4/2006 12:57

I just translated DEZ behaviour to AVM prices. Remember that AVM at 70p was cheaper than DEZ at $1. I assumed no gold price increase and no closing of the valuation gap to DEZ.

208p
179p
283p
209p
349p
293p
405p

Could it be that AVM in the end will belong to POG? Would make sense, AVM shareholders are frustrated about the inferior performance. POG shareholders are worried about overvaluation. POG connections to Moscow mean that a lot of Soviet drill results for ZGC could become available!!

[kojak78] 13/4/2006 12:30

The last rise started from 150 IMO, first we had the breakaway gap with a rise to 150, then a small consolidation (hard to see in the chart, look at bigcharts). The remaining upwards movement from 150 is not consolidated. We can only guess how much of that rise will be consolidated, 50%, 66%, 100%?? Could be that we have seen the low already, hard and fast "crash like" declines indicate bull markets.

[hosede] 13/4/2006 12:18

After the meteoric rise from 140 ish some profit taking was almost inevitable -agree top up somewhere around 170. Sold my silver warrants yesterday 60% rise in less than a week. Hope it will stabilise or retreat a little so I can repurchase - medium/long term the only way is up, but short term in this market I think we're all guessing!