Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 10/4/2006 11:58

Surely that is what the rise in gold and other commodities is telling us. Basically, it's a redistribution of assets from equities into resources with resultant gains in resource-related stocks.
Chip

[kojak78] 10/4/2006 11:49

I guess the problems will arise from another corner. End of the party? What about if there is no end of the party but the doors get locked and you are forced to party on? Everyone is looking for weakness in the stock markets and intends to sell before the others. What if inflation kicks in and money loses it's worth faster than stocks? You won't be able to get out of stocks because there is nothing of worth to get into. And we know that hyperinflation leads to deflation in real-terms..

[yikyak] 10/4/2006 11:15

Europe simulates financial meltdown

By George Parker in Vienna
Published: April 9 2006 21:05 | Last updated: April 9 2006 21:05

Europe's financial regulators have held a "war game" exercise, simulating a continent-wide financial crisis, amid fears they are ill- prepared to stop a problem in one country spreading across borders.

[bionicdog] 08/4/2006 13:08

Everything you need is here.

[figis] 08/4/2006 12:59

Hi Kojak 78

I am new to this thread. HUI is an index i believe. Please tell me where I can find it. I am a recent convert to AVM and am enjoying the ride.

Figis

[yikyak] 07/4/2006 23:43

The AIM 'market maker' system is designed to make investors trade in and out of stocks as much as possible (to overtrade) and create commisions for the market makers and brokers, I believe, out of the main markets it's the only country to still run this system, anyone? The majority of systems worldwide work simply on the basis of supply and demand of investors.

Off topic:

Two threads set up today, please feel free to contribute both bullish and bearish views, opinions, analysis.

[trader horne] 07/4/2006 22:35

kojak,
don't talk about trading this stock so much, there have only been two pullbacks worth trading (summer 04 and summer 05), otherwise it does perfectly well when we sit on our hands.

[kojak78] 07/4/2006 19:32

"Out of the 15 stocks that comprise the venerable HUI, the blue-chip golds, fully 7 are losing money today despite gold challenging $600! Isn't this strange? And of the remaining 8 that can somehow manage to mine gold at a profit today, their average P/E ratio is a staggering 78x, even higher than NEM's. If you don't feel sick enough yet, FCX is a primary copper miner which is the only reason its P/E is under fair value. If FCX is excluded, the average profitable HUI gold producer's P/E soars to 87x! Ouch."

That's the reason why we own AVM and not other gold stocks! 87, just calculate the price AVM would trade at..

[brazao] 07/4/2006 16:39

Super freeging duper!!

[brad1] 07/4/2006 16:30

Had a dabble in MCR earlier seems like it has good potential and nice support around the 60p mark. Another one looking very interesting, and more so that it is in the process of acquiring the long lead items required for the mine development, is CEY. This has a massive potential, the chart is looking very good and is starting to reward the long term holders. Been very turbulent but can see this one going way higher, but just hope that they are not taken over as going alone would prove more beneficial in the long run.

[kojak78] 07/4/2006 15:44

Confusing action of the highest magnitude. Gold stocks make a new high for the year, AVM goes down. Gold stocks break down, AVM goes up. I guess trading in such markets is nothing for me.

[kojak78] 07/4/2006 13:30

yikyak, I tend to favour that view now, too, with a nw HUI high for the year. What would the "reasonable" investor have done? Sold in the 9 day up period, of course! Not ever reaching that price level again would ensure that lots of people are left out for good.

[yikyak] 07/4/2006 13:19

I know a few on this board are expecting a pullback of sorts but my gut'o'meter says different, i'll stick my neck on the block and say we keep on going and not drop below £1.94 ever again which, obviously, is a pretty bold call.

I can almost hear the axes being sharpened.

[holdontightuk] 07/4/2006 09:24

courtesy of MiningNews,

Mercator flags 2007 production

Ben Sharples
Friday, April 07, 2006

MERCATOR Gold is looking to establish around 600,000 ounces in mineable resources at its Meekatharra ground before kicking off production in the first half of 2007, and believes the "under-explored" region could potentially host up to 5 million ounces.



"Profitable and sustainable production is our target and the sustainability is something what some of the past players did not achieve up here," Mercator exploration director Julian Vearncombe told delegates at Paydirt's Gold Conference in Perth yesterday.

Mercator picked up its prized Meekatharra assets from St Barbara Mines last year for $A21 million, which included a 2-3 million tonne per annum treatment plant.

"We have a database that we have inherited, that were we to go collecting that data this year would cost us $150 million, it has been seriously underutilised," Vearncombe said.

"What we are doing in 2006 is re-establishing the integrity of that imperfect data, we are targeting raising our resource base from 1.9Moz to something like 5Moz, we're looking to improve our mineable resource base to 600,000oz prior to going into production."

Mercator is looking at spending more than $4 million to increase the resource at the Bluebird project this year, and will spend a further $5.4 million re-commissioning the existing mill.

"It [the mill] last operated in May 2004, it has an excellent record of care and maintenance ... and it has the capacity for 3Mt of oxide ore, dropping to about 2Mt for primary ore," Vearncombe said.

"We anticipate being able to go into production with no debt ... we will not be forced into any hedging, it will be entirely at the company's discretion.

"The province of the Murchison is very much neglected, it didn't see the exploration through the late 80s and early 90s that the Eastern Goldfields saw, and as a result it appears to have a much lower endowment.

"This is the product of management decisions and not necessarily the geological feature

[kojak78] 07/4/2006 09:23

Of course gold stocks don't follow but lead the gold price on the way upward. That means they can top before gold. Sometimes they refuse to rise while gold does. January 1980 for instance. That happens because gold mines don't earn money because of high gold price spikes but because of high average gold prices. In late 1980 when gold was back near the January highs but not as a price spike the stocks traded much higher.

[references] 07/4/2006 09:06

Trader Horne - I think Kojak means that gold stocks often don't follow the gold price in the short term.

[Abuse team] 06/4/2006 22:46

Post removed by ADVFN

[trader horne] 06/4/2006 22:45

Kojak,
you're confusing me - "Gold stocks don't follow the gold price. ... Of course if gold stocks go higher AVM will rise as well."
and rise in a leveraged way. eg if production cost is $200/oz and gold goes up 50% from $400 to $600, then earnings will double from $200 to $400, or am I missing something?

[holdontightuk] 06/4/2006 21:47

BMGX is a goer, imo. Not so sure about NGG.....read a v negative article about Papua NG a few days ago (sorry, cant remember where, but it was a v worrying one!). IMO, Mawson Resources are a buy as well (MAW.V, I hold) as are AAB.V (more risky, but effectively a royalty play on a co with similar focus to MAW.V). As you know, on the LSE I favour MCR but also EUM.

[kojak78] 06/4/2006 20:59

M3 only reports monetary supply in the country. M3 growth rates in the U.S. and in the E.U. are comparable, but the 4 trillion US$ of reserves that central banks are hoarding isn't included into M3. That's the key to hyperinflation in the U.S.

Damned, I'de like to buy some newmont shares again or Gold Fields. But from technical perspective they look the same as AVM. MFN or BMGX would be better buys right now. Or NGG.V? Newmont is undervalued IMHO and Gold Fields could run because the overhang from Norilsk is gone and Anglogold may bid for them.

[kojak78] 06/4/2006 16:54

Gold stocks don't follow the gold price. If the HUI stopped yesterday I'd say false gold rise and gold stocks signal for a correction, but since gold has broken above 575 only recently I couldn't imagine such a scenario and thought the HUI will go higher and gold will go higher. We have the new high today. Of course if gold stocks go higher AVM will rise as well.

If we want to achieve the 3000 barrier in the gold price until 2016 we need to rise 26% on average per annum taking into account monetary inflation. So $100 and more gold price rises for the next 10 years I guess..

I learned a lesson years ago: The stock market is valued too high. But my shorts in 1999 vanished into hot air. My gold stocks increased in value. We may see a crash but it's more probable that all assets will rise just more and more and more. We will see wages rise at some point, not 3 or 5%, but 30, 50 or 100%. Some doctors earn 300% more in the U.S. than in Germany! It's either more money or no workers. In the end inflation means that prices rise but fall in real terms, a deflation in real terms with gold as the cash during deflation. Marc Faber has recognized that, too. And if we should see a crash in the stock market the FED will intervene because pension funds can be underwater somewhat but if they are underwater big time they have only a few years to charge the losses against earnings meaning restating earnings from probably 2000 to 2006 from earnings to losses because otherwise management would lower current earnings (or turn current earnings into loss) and earn less because of stock options. Will the FED print money to avoid evaporating all business earnings of all big US companies from 2000 to 2006? I bet they will. So no lasting crash. Gold stocks won't be affected by such a possible crash because they fell in 1987 with stocks but people telling that story forget to tell that Newmont rose 200% from January up to the crash in 1987. HUI 900 in October crashing together with the Dow back to 400, that's possible.

[bestbuddy] 06/4/2006 16:37

Kojak,
With gold on the rise despite a strengthening dollar, cant see this falling much more.

[kojak78] 06/4/2006 15:41

BMGX up 11% and MFL.TO up 3%, I'm glad I didn't buy more AVM as at least some diversification is a nice thing. Yesterday I nearly put in a sell offer over 22000 AVM.. I've got 102000 and 20000 were bought at 14 or 15 and then 60000 at 13.5, the other shares were bought at much higher prices. That's why I'd sell 22000 and not more with the idea of perhaps not getting them back forever. But I decided against selling by a limit order and decided to watch the market this morning. If it goes down in rapid speed it's just not the time to sell. What's the point in selling 22000 at a good price while depressing the price of the other 80000? In fact I feel more relieved that MFL is up today as I have put a lot of research into that one. I'm more relaxed than I ever was in the last 2 weeks. AVM probably will go lower, much lower. But it's not a threatening move, just normal behaviour in a bull market. Even if this was the high for months (RSI..) we have the strongest gold stock season of the year before us and with my initial predictions for this year, gold 650 and hui 450, becoming far more certain I just can dream where AVM will be in October! High 200s or lower 300s would be very nice, some outperformance vs. the HUI and still not fair value by far so that I will hang on to AVM going into 2007. This bull market *will* catapult AVM into the double digit pound figures, 30 to 60 pounds is realistic at $3000 price of gold, at least I'd prefer that to investing into NEM/GFI etc.

You have to admit that from a broader perspective your investment choices in the gold stock universe have become much more limited. All gold stocks, even the ultra-low cash cost producers, disappoint in the earnings department where AVM shines. Low reserve life at Penjom and Taror/Chore feasibility are the milestones AVM has to reach and I'm confident they will! This one still is the best gold stock.

[trader horne] 06/4/2006 13:23

thou sayest sooth.