Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[kojak78] 26/3/2006 14:05

SKI bottom hit, safe to buy again for the medium term:


Now to AVM:
We have 2 gaps now, one at 142/146 and one at 147/149. The first one should be the second break-away gap. The second one was caused by the recent recommendation and should be closed. So I expect prices for AVM to turn back in the short term and bottom in the 146/147 region. But who knows..

[saucepan] 25/3/2006 12:03

ohojim: very interesting chart/analysis, thanks; food for thought. Gold is traditionally weak in the same period.

IC tips usually have momentum until at least Monday morning - weekend buyers of the mag, and all that.

[supersturrock] 24/3/2006 22:23

Kojak. I always look out for your detailed analysis on this one - much appreciated.

p.s. so much the message came up twice !

[supersturrock] 24/3/2006 15:50

Kojak. I always look out for your detailed analysis on this one - much appreciated.

[brad1] 24/3/2006 08:27

Does it need a reason - apart from the one that it is still undervalued. The future is looking very bright. One very interesting prospect has to be idenberg - an update on this prospect could send the share price soaring, although mining it is probably some time away - but nonetheless very interesting.

[saucepan] 24/3/2006 08:26

Answering my own question: Investors Chronicle buy recommendation.

[mattybuoy] 22/3/2006 15:01

AVM's stealth profile continues to work well.

In this article, entitled "Is It Time to Steer Clear of Indonesia?", many companies are mentioned. Avocet is not ...

[kojak78] 22/3/2006 09:55

I think there is a twist to the uk gold selling. As far as I know the gold was sold but has still to be kept at the BOE. No physical movement. I don't know if that's true. If it is buyers are fools because over time they will be expropriated. Perhaps the "sold" gold has been leased and was sold in the market, so there is no (or less than admitted) gold in the vaults. The same gold sold twice.

Mining shares or physical in your own possession, everything else is nonsense.

Regarding Avocet I think the higher gold price demands that we take into account minority interests finally. Of course there still are millions to be repaid to AVM, but it is just a matter of time.
To me it looks as if AVM will produce 60000 at North Lanut, 120000 at Penjom, 100000 at Jilau and 130000 at Taror and Chore.
South Sulawesi is a not so good exploration portfolio, but as every other miner has bad exploration assets somewhere AVM needs something to be comparable to others. Bakan looks like .5 or 1m oz reserve base. I don't consider that as I think it will just prolong the North Lanut reserve life. Just assume 10 years + North Lanut. Penjom should have left 7 years with underground and Buffalo Reef + exploration will bring this to more than 10 years. What remains is Idenburg and the 10mio oz C+P Russian "reserves" as the only true exploration assets that will grow the company.
So we have 60000*80% = 48000 in Indonesia
230000 * 75% = 172000 in Tajikistan
and 120000 in Malaysia.

Cash costs probably in the 250 range (200 for Penjom because of stockpiles, relatively low-cost for Taror/Chore and more higher cost production at Jilau). Let's say 270 for conservative estimates.

=340000 at 270,
((550-270)*0.34mio - 15m overhead)*65% / 1.75 US$/GBP / 110m shares fd = 27p/share

p/e of 5.5 with reserves, production, quality and reserve life comparable to Newmont in every aspect once AVM management gets the job done. A somewhat optimistic scenario but excluding upside from gold price and from exploration.

[brad1] 21/3/2006 16:23

not much more to say on the subject, is there!

[chipperfrd] 21/3/2006 15:47

I think Brown bought US treasuries in lieu of the gold - which, given their 30% drop, made it an even worse deal for the UK tax payer. But then he's Mr Prudent is he not?

edit: and the BOE signalled the sales to the market well in advance - so the pog could drop in anticipation. With a Chancellor like Brown who needs enemies?

[brad1] 21/3/2006 15:34

anyone who makes such a ridiculous move as he did should be out. How could anyone have thought, at that time, that gold price would go down (or did he not care as the money would be used, and hopefully not totally recognised where it had gone, for health or whatever. It is about time the uk went back into gold as I can see only one way it is heading over the next 5-10 years - no matter how much they try to prevent it. In addition, why cant you buy gold in the uk without some extortionate price added (eg royal mint). They keep going on about retirement, but they need to allow the vehicles in place for people to choose which way they want to invest. Oh well, at least there are other places in the world where one can buy what they want at a reasonable price.

[yikyak] 21/3/2006 12:48

The Times March 21, 2006


Chancellor under fire for gold sale as price nears $600
By Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter



FORECASTS that gold prices are set to smash through the $600-an-ounce barrier saw Gordon Brown come under renewed pressure last night over his controversial decision to sell the majority of Britain's gold reserves.
Merrill Lynch predicted that gold would hit $600 an ounce in the long term after its recent rise above $500. Last month the precious metal hit a 25-year high of $579.50 an ounce amid concern among investors that America's huge trade gap would force a weakening of the dollar.



The Chancellor sold 395 tonnes of Britain's gold reserves between 1999 and 2002, generating $3.5 billion. At yesterday's London closing price of $554.10 he would have generated more than $7 billion (£4 billion).

Vincent Cable, the Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman, said: "The decision to diversify Britain's foreign reserves away from gold is a sensible one and one I have supported but the Treasury's impatience over timing has obviously been very costly."

He added that the Treasury was repeatedly guilty of failing to realise the best value for its assets, referring, in particular, to the sale of government shares in QinetiQ, the defence research group.

The sale of Britain's gold reserves - which are stored in vaults under the Bank of England, alongside billions of pounds of bullion owned by other institutions - was attacked even in 1999 for poor timing. Gold prices fell $5 an ounce on the news and swiftly tumbled to a 20-year low. The scheme was also suspected by some of being a stealth plan to ease Britain's entry into the European single currency.

Yesterday's criticism of Mr Brown came as worse than expected public finances data left the Chancellor's chances of fulfilling deficit forecasts in tomorrow's Budget as "touch and go".

[zaky] 21/3/2006 11:07

this forum is mighty quiet nowadays - was a time when you'd have a tonne of posts of catch up on

[yikyak] 20/3/2006 14:18

AVM starting to creep up. :-)

Rossca or whatever your handle is today, nobody is interested in your pump and dump operation. Wish ADVFN could nail these guys, they are posting everywhere.

[Abuse team] 20/3/2006 13:20

Post removed by ADVFN

[corrientes] 20/3/2006 13:19

Every company operating outside historical mining areas is 'unsafe' ! Whether its Asia, South America,Africa there are risks, so AVM is no different to virtually every other miner in that respect.Probably safer as its risk is spread.

[wyla] 20/3/2006 12:40

Who owns this thread? It seems important to change the JORC total and the hedging information in the header.

[dixi] 20/3/2006 11:00

Great news for AVM today - but of some relevance, perhaps:

[troadec] 20/3/2006 10:42

Mention of the news featured on Kitco.com , for a snippet on sharecast:

[brad1] 20/3/2006 10:27

and there are some other updates due in the near future according to the interims.

[saucepan] 20/3/2006 08:13

Added again first thing. There is a lot in the "small print" of the RNS that should get analysts re-working and upgrading their figures. Nice to be ahead of them :-)