Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[andy] 21/1/2006 14:54

HOT,

LOL! He's already there!

[holdontight] 21/1/2006 14:54

Please tell him his figure is too low and to go to hell.

[Abuse team] 21/1/2006 14:48

Post removed by ADVFN

[holdontight] 21/1/2006 11:56

That the governement was saying it wanted to improve and increase gold and resource mining......that they want more investment....must be good for AVM.

[goml] 21/1/2006 11:48

HOT,

Don't take it personally mate but I'd rather you didn't post your updates either. BTW what did the Jakarta Post article say because they obviously don't keep their pages archived?

I should just add that all your other postings are very vaulable and much appreciated, so thanks.

Cheers

[holdontight] 21/1/2006 11:41

If you dont want me to post this egain, I wont.......I have edited the PGD section, btw. The reasons I have posted is that I have found it interesting to follow the movements of another posters holdings....he had by the way CSH and NBR, amongst others.

[lordgnome] 21/1/2006 10:37

Hot,
With all due respect, that's about as relevant to this thread as me posting the weather forecast.

[corrientes] 21/1/2006 09:47

and if everyone does that, nobody will ever get to anything important.

[holdontight] 21/1/2006 00:18

I have decided to take on board the actions of a fellow poster (not AVM) and provide an update each week on my own holdings, so here goes:

1. AVM : moved up agaon this week and closed at 140p. Agreed new call and put deal with MacQuarrie, whereby 53% of current production (ie ca 110k ozs/year) for next 3 years to have a saftey net of $450/oz and a ceiling of $700. Part of the deal is that the previous hedge be reduced which is earning senhancing with immediate effect.

2. TMG : no news this week, but spread has narrowed from 14/19 to 17/19. Volume is also increasing and ZAR Gold moving in right direction.

3. PGD : director buys at 16p, increasing holding to ca 50%. Price moved from 16p to 20p. Merryl Lynch Gold and General buy another 1 million shares, taking holding to 11 million.

Section taken from Minesite.Com :-

It was well outpaced by Patagonia Gold which rose by 69.4 per cent to 15.25p. Patagonia Gold have reported some unusually high grade results from intersections drilled at the Huemules Gold mine project in Southern Argentina. This may have reminded investors that in November the company announced that it had acquired a number of properties near the Esquel project which was acquired by Meridian Gold. More may be heard on this shortly as the company turned down an invitation to present at our 29th Minesite Mining Forum on the basis that it was in the middle of a deal.

4. LND : no news per se, but price improved from 12p tp 13p. Volume noticeably higher today.

5. ADA : no news this week, but price up slightly to close at 112.5p.

6. FIO : announced Thursday that agreed deal to by Raft (RFT). Price unchanged but volume up and spread reduced from 42/38 to 42/40.

7. TAG : no news this week and no change in price

8. BDI : no news this week and no change in price


Have great w/end

HOT

[brad1] 20/1/2006 15:57

late movement beckons!

[holdontight] 20/1/2006 13:44

Should be positive for AVM....

[holdontight] 20/1/2006 10:20

No....not with EPS of between 23 and 25p with ave gold price of 550.....

[brad1] 20/1/2006 10:16

wont stay here long with strong gold price.

[saucepan] 20/1/2006 06:42

Bud: a very helpful analysis - thanks as always

[holdontight] 19/1/2006 15:46

Yep....with cashflow improved and reserves and resources set to improve, along with actual production.

[kojak78] 19/1/2006 15:38

And still only US$1200 m.c. per oz of production vs. US$3500 at Newmont.

[budevenwiser] 19/1/2006 15:32

just done a little revising of what we can expect each quarter and for the next 12 months if gold averages around $500

each qaurter


penjom
30 000 x 500 = 15 000 000
costs say $220 = 6 600 000
pretax = 8 400 000

north lanut

15 000 production
12000 x 305 = 3 660 000
3 000 x 500 = 1 500 000
costs say 180 = 2 700 000
pretax = 2 460 000

zeravshan

lets assume breakeven with higher grade ore and dump leech

cost of hedge = 12 000 x 195 = 2 340 000

pretax each qaurter = $10 860 000
that includes taking care of the hedge at north lanut


now since announcement we will have an extra 20 000 ounces at $500 instead of $305
which is 20 000 x 195 = $3 900 000
12 months
pretax = 10 860 000 x 4 = $43 440 000 + $3 900 000 = $47 340 000
change to stirling using exchange rate of 1.7 = £27 847 058
roughly 17p to 18p eps from beginning of jan 06

these rough calcs are based on 120 000 from penjom 60 000 from n lanut and 40 000 from zer this takes no account of n lanut beating these targets as they did 6000 in october alone also zeravshan had best october in 12 months now mining higher grade ore and using the low grade ore for the new dump leech which is expected to produce 12 000 ouces per year when in full production
if we can average $525 add another 180 000 x $25 = $4500 000 = pretax $51 840 000 / 1.7 = £30494117 = roughly 19p to 20p eps

[pecker1] 19/1/2006 13:46

kojak,

re your 1835 - am expecting open pit mining at Buffalo Reef, Bakan and Effendi (to feed Lanut) and, possibly, Hatu, to top up production before Chore and Taror come on stream.

[saucepan] 19/1/2006 11:33

CWR - worth a visit to the website, for more information: www.cerespower.com

Seems to me that the fuel cell is a world beater and the company is not far away from going to scale commercially. It is also followed by some posters whom I respect.

CWR is also endorsed by Tony Blair! True, but not why I am invested :-) It does get quite a bit of government backing.

Edit: Plus big tie ups with the likes of BOC, and an exciting chart technically at present. Much more high risk than AVM however.

[holdontight] 19/1/2006 11:17

Saucepan....see you are in CWR.....can you give ne a quick summary of why to invest in thm. Thanks.

[saucepan] 19/1/2006 11:05

Does anyone have access to level 2? I know blow by blow accounts are somewhat immaterial in the long term picture, but I am intrigued by today's price action so far. Large buyer in the background?

[kojak78] 19/1/2006 10:31

They produce already 210,000 without dump-leaching in Tajikistan and probably over 220,000 with dump-leaching. Bringing Jilau back on track with 85000 oz /with dump-leaching) and perhaps over 70000 from North Lanut are already 285000, won't come tomorrow though. And Taror/Chore feasibility is due in the next 15 months, that will increase production by 130,000 oz but only 3 to 4 years down the road. Hoewever, it will add 2 mio oz in reserves immediately after feasibility and with Taror and Chore as new projects we will get images of the projects etc. and the fact that the Russians spent US$500 mio on those mines alone will be a surprise to many folks, too.