Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[kojak78] 09/1/2006 17:33

BTW, NG up ca. 10% today :)

Even VGZ, my trash gold stock, is up a few percent. The last ones to rise are explorers and trash companies. We could see the short-term top in general gold stocks in the next or the next two weeks with a decline into February or March (perhaps 10 to 15%). The rest of the year should be a bull period! 50% higher from here until end of year for the average gold stock.

[kojak78] 09/1/2006 17:29

All gold producers have hedged ca. 55 mio oz at ca. 330. Placer/Barrick has 23 mio oz hedged. If prices skyrocket this year (say 650) it will be very interesting to see if some smaller ones go bankrupt. I don't think Placer/barrick is threatened this year.

[holdontight] 09/1/2006 16:34

That does that mean, Kojak?

[kojak78] 09/1/2006 16:10

Global hedge book is now 11bn in the red..

[holdontight] 09/1/2006 15:58

Link to TMG Nov 05 presentation....obj is to be producing 500000 ozs by 2008.

[holdontight] 09/1/2006 15:27

Good bounce in price of gold. AVM ticks up again.

TMG can be bought at 16.5p....ignore the spread. Gold above $500 and TMG are a bargain at this price, imo. Even more so than AVM....there you go, I've said it now!

[kojak78] 09/1/2006 11:11

Yamana won't be taken over, company executives love to talk about how cheap they got the reserves for $100/oz or so. Yamana costs $300/oz, a price that is very hard to justify in a takeover. I'm not saying Yamana isn't worth that much. It is because cash costs are very low. But it is just unattractive as a takeover for a pure gold company. I don't like Yamana any more because they depend too heavily on copper prices, on currency exchange rates and on cheap Brazilian diesel fuel. Now is the time to invest in the pure gold producers again. They have a much better lever to rising gold prices than Goldcorp (now copper, too), Yamana or Agnico Eagle.

And the most important fact about Yamana is that they have one of the "worst" production profiles in the industry based on timing the gold market. You want a producer which has low production now (and doesn't consume valuable ozs at cheap prices) and max out in 2010-12, Yamana will max out in 2008, Chapada has a 5 year mine life of its higher grade core, 2011 it will be mined out and cash costs will rise considerably. Novagold is the stock with the best production profile IMO based on timing considerations.

I have experienced many takeovers or takeover attemps of stocks I owned so far: Ranger Minerals, Normandy, Ashanti, Repadre, Gold Fields, Iamgold, Placer, Goldfields Australia, Hill50..

[pecker1] 09/1/2006 10:40

kojak,

I bought into Desert Sun because it is an obvious takeover target. Right size, right country. Same goes for Yamana.

[kojak78] 09/1/2006 09:52

On the other side you don't know what they actually do own. Therefore the discount to NAV..

BTW, I think the following statement from the Endeavour Mining Capital 2004 annual report would be a nice way for Avocet to improve the share price rating:

"Our share price remains at a discount to
net asset value (NAV) per share. The Board
of Directors is addressing this situation and
considers the discount to be unjustifiable.
Endeavour Mining's share price has yet to
reflect the company's consistently high level
of profitability, increasing net asset value and
exceptional long-term growth prospects.
In the meantime, we have taken the
following steps to enhance shareholder
value:

Adoption of a dividend policy
Our semi-annual dividend is set at
CDN$0.035 per share (CDN$0.07
annually).

Posting of monthly NAV per share
Timely NAV per share information is now
available on our website. It supplements
our quarterly earnings results, allowing
investors to better assess the company's
financial performance.

Graduation of common shares to TSX
Listing of our common shares and
warrants on the Toronto Stock Exchange
(TSX), the premier international mining
stock exchange, maximizing their visibility
and liquidity."

[wolstencroft] 09/1/2006 09:28

I agree with you on Endeavour Mining, Kojak - its a good way to get exposure to miners in the way that Dundee Precious used to give. One of my larget holdings.

[kojak78] 09/1/2006 08:10

My current holdings:

AVM (best producer)
Endeavour Mining capital: priced on NAV of Nov. 30
Resolute Mining: bought for A$1,10, US$175 mio market cap for 320,000 oz in production and 3.2 mio oz in reserves, 550000 oz hedges
Novagold
Vista Gold: trash stock, "resources in the ground"

My recent research showed me that Avocet is still the best opportunity in the markets, they are way overweighted in my portfolio (more than all the other 4 stocks combined).

Resolute is already up 7.3% for today.

Endeavour Mining has a NAV of C$5.45 for November, should be 5.95 in December, so 4.60 share price is a 23% discount, figures should be out in the next couple of days.

[kojak78] 09/1/2006 08:03

Who knows.. short-term we have some (20%) upside potential vs. other gold stocks which can go up 10% until a short-term top could be formed (this week or next week). The correction could last 4 to 8 weeks and it should be the only correction this year. Avocet is so undervalued that the share price could very well just go sideways during that gold stock correction.

The scenario that is most likely to unfold in the next two or three years is an assault of the old highs of $875, then we should get that ugly mid-term correction á la 1974-1976 before we go on to several thousands $ per oz. I am sure Avocet will be higher than 500p when we reach that mid-term top in 2007/08, fundamentals with Taror/Chore would justify such prices right now.

[goml] 09/1/2006 07:57

Holdontight, I doubt it. The dollar is artificially supported in the market by the chinese govt to keep the yuan low. yuan revaluation is only going to be in one direction, if or when it happens.

[holdontight] 08/1/2006 23:20

AVM headed now to 150p, short term.....end Jan?

[holdontight] 08/1/2006 22:40

Maybe my understanding is wrong, but is this not positive for the $?
As gold movement is no longer related only as an inverse to $ movement, probably no impact anyway?

[kenburns] 08/1/2006 22:16

Biswell..
There's no chance that AVM will go back down to anything like 75p.
Dream on.

[biswell] 08/1/2006 16:05

Time to get ready for the fall to 75p

B

[goml] 08/1/2006 16:00

Another voice in the chorus calling for the yuan to be revalued. Could add to jitters on the dollar on Monday.

[taylor20] 07/1/2006 12:57

Gold featured in the Independent's Money section today :-(

[jeddah jo] 07/1/2006 03:33

As AVM does now have a material interest in China, it would be nice if the graphic shown at the top reflected that by perhaps shading in China. This would instantly convey to potential investors the vast geographical area through which AVM's interests now extend.

JJ

[holdontight] 07/1/2006 00:14

Hello AJ...are you still a holder?

[mr ashley james] 06/1/2006 17:16

Chart Break Out at long last it has only taken 3 years three months LOL!

[references] 06/1/2006 14:20

Interesting to note that in the past two sessions New York has marked gold down quite sharply at the open, but today is showing the reverse. Perhaps this is due to the Chinese Treasury's comments re. the rebalancing of its overseas assets which will likely be to the detriment of the USdollar, albeit gradually, which is one of the other big gold bull points of course, imo.

[saucepan] 06/1/2006 14:19

Interested to hear the above views. I have no particular strong feelings myself. I only brought a reminder about the new thread issue as I understood this was under consideration.

Another option might be for Dave to edit his first post to include a few bullet points stating the investment case as posters see it (should he be willing of course, and others think this is a good idea).