Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[ben gunn] 13/1/2006 20:03

Sold wife's little holding but firm with my larger holding.
Iran is not a good enough gold story for me....I need props: some central characters and perhaps.........................a body.

[holdontight] 13/1/2006 19:01

assuming AVM achieves ca $30 below spot gold ave this year to allow for the hedge, and assuming gold averages 550, and that other costs remain as before.....we are looking at $120/oz (x ca 230000 - 240000) increased annual profits of ca $28 million. Of course, costs will increase by ca 7%, so take $15/oz off - still $25 million. The following year, assuming 650/oz aver gold price, with no hedge and 300000 ozs / year........ well, I am sure you can do the maths yourself....my view is that this company will be upto 10x higher by sept 07.......£12. This is on gold at 650.......coule of course be much much higher!!

[reefseeker] 13/1/2006 16:18

Put it this way, how would you feel going into this 3 day weekend (US) with a large short position......

[holdontight] 13/1/2006 16:04

Maybe, who knows...there are many other factors as well...wonder how many days AVM will lag this......i stand by my prediction of 150p by end Jan. If we get a positive exploration update, maybe higher.

[reefseeker] 13/1/2006 15:59

Bang, there goes $550! Presume this is the market increasingly factoring in the Iranian situation.

[holdontight] 12/1/2006 21:24

Welcome to the club, Brad!! The signs with AVM are indeed very encouraging!!

[brad1] 12/1/2006 21:22

Correct me if I'm wrong, and I have not got time to go and check, but didn't the interims indicate some news soon. We've all been talkin about this ones potential and now at last it is starting to happen - sit back and enjoy! Personally I see a rise to the 150-160 mark b4 we see a proper correction for which to again support from. Been with these guys a while and I am starting to like the honesty of the company. Very rare you see a sure thing, but I have not played the game long enough to know, and I am more than happy to hold for the medium term, which on top of a medium term must make a long term!!

[saucepan] 12/1/2006 17:03

"Suspicious": perhaps replace this word with "encouraging"?

The strength of AVM on a day of sector and gold weakness, suggests there is some (good) company-specific development driving the price. Those "in the know" often get wind of such developments ahead of public announcements.

It is anyone's guess what this might be: drilling results, corporate activity, etc?

Edit: Of course, it might be something as mundane as a broker upgrade communicated to institutional clients!

[kojak78] 12/1/2006 15:20

Just sold all my remaining positions in the US. Actually at a small loss (1.5%), I had hoped some trash shares would advance further as the last ones to move. GSS and NG made nice profits though and I'm quite happy with my trading (HUI hasn't gone anywhere in that time frame). I feel the risk/reward ratio isn't right anymore, atl east for tradign positions where you can't afford a loss.

I hold on to my Avocet shares (6 digit figure), a small Sally Malay, a small Resolute and a small Endeavour mining capital position. I'm going to buy more Avocet shares once stochastics are oversold again (looking for that to happen in early Feb.).

The price increase Avocet made today looks very suspicious though!! Especially in face of the not the well performing HUI. Interesting times ahead.

[holdontight] 12/1/2006 15:14

TMG ticked up today......signs of life (after death, in their case).....if this moves it could do so big time.

[sogoesit] 12/1/2006 15:03

kojak78... thanks for feed-back;
in answer to your question... have no idea why; maybe the uncertainty of the unknown... trying to guess what their hedge position's effects really will be?
i chose to invest in POG today at 1030p based on their "no hedging policy"!

[jeddah jo] 12/1/2006 13:23

I was so happy when Biswell predicted 75p on the other thread. He really is the best contra-indicator I have ever seen!

JJ.

[holdontight] 12/1/2006 10:59

Yeah, I know...normally first expense to be cut which is an admission that either it wasnt working in first place or they dont know if was working. Marketing, PR etc is an investment if they do it properly.....how they could do with an AJ or Energyi on their side. AJ...you have your following, cant you get things going again!

[pecker1] 12/1/2006 10:55

HOT,

Every beancounter I have met who runs a company has begrudged spending money on promotion and has had to be dragged to the well. Once they have seen the light, they are often the most enthusiastic.

[holdontight] 12/1/2006 10:44

I have had no response to my question about this to Catchpole......sent it a week ago. It's almost like they dont want to maximise the return for themselves....compare and contrast PR skills with Brancote/Patagonia Gold......we should be 150p now, as a minimum and 200p would be far from silly...in fact I would still say a strong buy based on increasing production and exploration opportunity....and where's the bloody China factor?

[kojak78] 12/1/2006 10:39

"..implying they still have a position but the situation is improving, i suppose."

They reduce by 4000oz per month (from 18000 to 19000 total production per month) and the hedge will be gone at the end of the next financial year. So no big deal.

Why can others that have hedged 10x as much as Avocet rise 25% in a matter of days? RSG in Australia..

[sogoesit] 12/1/2006 10:20

yes.. my investments in gold are based on it heading to $800 in the medium term.

[holdontight] 12/1/2006 10:12

150p by end Jan looking uncreasingly likely. Depends what gold does.....soem think we are due another spike. AJ....what do you think to TMG?

[sogoesit] 12/1/2006 10:08

Perhaps the difference is due to AVM using hedging; I note that POG have a policy not to hedge long term forward sales... am checking AVM....
according to Sept 2005 Interims their profits were down due to reducing a hedge position implying they still have a position but the situation is improving, i suppose.

[kenburns] 12/1/2006 09:03

Looks like gold is on its way to $600.

[kojak78] 12/1/2006 08:38

No takeover, just undervalued. If AVM mirrored HUI performance from Feb. 2005 we would be already above 150p.

Remember Nov. 2005? We agreed back then that AVM was undervalued siginificantly vs. other gold stocks. I thought AVM would be worth 2.5x of its price. Prices were 110 for the XAU and 105p for AVM (currency adjusted to todays pound 110).

XAU is 140 now and AVM does cost only 124p now, that means AVM has underperformed and the undervaluation is now 35% instead of 40%, that means instead of 150% upside we now have 185% upside to the *current* XAU which of course will again rise this year.

[libra10] 12/1/2006 08:25

may be a takeover???