Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[holdontight] 06/1/2006 14:07

Changing the thread is an option....more importantly though is getting the word and message spread. AVM are not especially good with their PR, though I have seen worse. But how many on ADVFN do not know about AVM ..... I am not saying we should ramp, but that we could ourselves be more proactive in getting the message across to other investors. We could also let the relevant papers know, they're always after tips.

[pecker1] 06/1/2006 14:01

DD,

I like the current title. As to content, let's wait for the next thread-changing news from AVM! Due soon, I expect.

[bestbuddy] 06/1/2006 13:53

Too much good information in this thread to change yet. Why not wait until we hit 300,000 oz

[doobydave] 06/1/2006 13:20

I'm not totally convinced the current thread "Avocet Mining 2005 – towards 300,000oz gold production in 2006" is out of date, but if general feeling is that new thread is needed, I'm happy to oblige. If so, any suggestions for new header title?

[reefseeker] 06/1/2006 12:58

Kojak, HOT - thanks for the excellent posts today, they are some of the best I've read on any ADVFN thread in a while. Thanks also for the GSS comment, as a relative newcomer to gold shares I had not heard of this company before; I've just downloaded their 03 and 04 annual reports and also a recent investor presentation. I'll complete my personal due diligence tonight, who knows they may become my 2nd gold stock after AVM (but I note your comments re timing).

Kojak; I understand and agree with your thinking on AVM buying. I look to build large positions in a relatively small number of companies (10 or so, I can manage on-going DD on that number!) and will build up stakes by buying on dips.

[pecker1] 06/1/2006 12:23

HOT,

After such a good post, hope you don't mind me saying that I think it worth adding the following to your list: Idenburg - a potentially new gold province, Bakan - hopefully fast-tracked into production in 2007, Hatu - development with Dynasty as well as exploration of their huge land holding, impending acquisition of one or more of the promising prospects/projects that have been offered to AVM.

No doubt there are even more to add to the list.

[saucepan] 06/1/2006 12:08

Holdontight: congratulations on post 1648. You have beautifully articulated, IMHO, why AVM represents such a great investment opportunity; and now, apparently, with chart momentum at long last.

[kojak78] 06/1/2006 12:05

I owned 100,000 Thistle shares back in 2003, but I sold at 35 cents with a small loss. I think they are very hard to judge. President Steyn is trash. At these gold prices they will go bankrupt over time. But if gold goes to 650 this year they could be a good or excellent investment. They didn't run up in 2005, which is quite positive. Thistle could really shine in 2007 when gold goes to 800 or 900. One thing about SA is puzzling me: Harmony. If the Rand stays where it is Harmony's valuation makes no sense. With Harmony at these levels I think Thistle should be 100 or 200% higher. DRDGold, Anglogold and Gold Fields are totally different stories, DRDGold is more about SE Asia now and GFI/Anglogold is about black empowerment and expropriation.

[holdontight] 06/1/2006 11:56

You did better than me with your buying prices then.....good for you.

[kojak78] 06/1/2006 11:54

"AVM has finally broken through 105, today with intent, and you say sell, or dont buy at best. Wrong, imo."

I agree with you. If you don't own shares - buy. I already own enough and I am not that much diversified. That means when the next correction comes (it will come for sure) I will loose tens of thousands again. That is the time one could panic and sell. To avoid that I don't buy any more, I buy other stocks (that are more expensive from a fundamental viewpoint). If the correction comes I can sell some other stuff except Avocet. If Avocet declined from 130 to 110 or so, then I would buy some more of course. But not when the price rises from 116 to 120, 125, etc. IMO we'll see 200 to 500 this year for sure! But the ride will be quite difficult to master. Perhaps very volatile, perhaps without corrections.

I can't sell my current holdings in AVM because I'm tax free already ;)

BTW, my buying prices (one sell): 15, 13.5, 46, sold all @78, bought back all @65, 74.5, 110

[holdontight] 06/1/2006 11:50

In terms of other stocks, Kojak, what do you think to TMG?

[holdontight] 06/1/2006 11:40

I actually expect AVM to do a POG (Peter Hambro) and move up 5 fold quite quickly. Maybe this year, probably next.

[holdontight] 06/1/2006 11:38

Kojak, your logic is confusing. If you wont sell below 200p, but wouldnt buy above 110p, what exactly are you saying...that you dont want circa 85% profit??!!
I also disagree with you regards price of gold and about now being a bad time to buy. If my memory is correct, the same was said (not by you, but by many others) 12, 24 and 36 months ago. The current rally from 460 has taken SOME gold stocks along with it, but not all, by any means. In addition, most of these stocks hadnt really moved from when gold was priced at 350 area.
Turning to AVM, this is not just a play on the price of gold. It is also as you have recountered on numerous occasions, about exploration potential, a declining hedge, increasing production. It is also about the $.
I have no issue with you mentioning your other gold investments on this thread, but I do wish you would be more consistent with your views, most of which are sound.
AVM has finally broken through 105, today with intent, and you say sell, or dont buy at best. Wrong, imo. Now is absolutely a good time to buy, on the way to 150p and then 200p by this time next year....and quite possibly sooner. We are due a revaluation for the following reasons:
1. POG has increased by more than $110/oz last 12 mnths. AVM by only 12p before today.
2. AVM has ramped up production to more than 200000 ozs/year, looking like 220 this year
3. Production will likely further increase at Z and NL, this year
4. Costs at Z will likely decline significantly this year
5. P remains stable at 120/year, and should remain so for next few years at least
6. Exploration potential via T and H
7. Hedge will be eliminated by end of 06

Have I missed anything?

Oh yes, the direction of the price of gold....we broke definitively the 529 level and are now headed for 850, sooner than you think. India, China growth (both keen buyers of gold), central band buying (Russia), global debt, war, terrorism, etc etc etc.......would you like me to quote your good self?

HOT

[kojak78] 06/1/2006 11:00

Nice and interesting, I am proud that we have such an intelligent discussion going on. If you compare that to the yahoo message boards.. you'll rarely find something useful there.

To those of you who want to diversify away from AVM: I think now is a very bad time to buy gold stocks. Perhaps even a short-term (=1 to 2 month) top. However, I did some research. Just compare gold stocks on a 2 year and 1 year frame. I did that with vgz, nem, gfi, pdg, aem and ng. Now buy the stocks that did the best over the last 2 years and worst over the last year. Based on that conclusion I bought some Novagold shares.

American Bonanza looks attractive, too. I like GSS, too, but not in the short term. Perhaps it's best to stay out of the hot stocks until the short-term correction arrives (this time it won't take that long!). I guess the market will fool timers once again. Bob Moriarty is shouting top again, unfortunately MACD (XAU/Gold ratio) isn't as high as in previous tops. Perhaps top, but probably just a little more upside (5 to 10%). Then we should get the short-term correction with timers predicting 6 months consolidation.. again. Unfortunately they'll be wrong again: 1 to 2 months correction only.

The latest Mark Hulbert report on gold shows that stock sentiment is near record bullishness while gold sentiment is in neutral territory. Stocks did nothing in 2005 while gold gained 20%.. very bullish for this year. And bearish for stocks.

BTW, I think GSS could really surprise this year. They did a financing recently. Many times gold stocks happen to rally just after a financing and bought deals. Remember Yamana? Remember Avocet in 2003 from 43 to 80? I guess Nesbitt Burns et al. really need those high prices to distribute their stock.

IMO Avocet is still the lowest valued producer. But we are in dangerous waters now, things will get really volatile from now on.. I won't sell below 200, but I won't buy above 110 either. I own enough shares now and just have to diversify.

[domwilliams] 06/1/2006 08:57

Avocet Mining ticked 2p higher to 113p on hopes the group will soon unveil a positive drilling update from its central Asia gold operations.

[chipperfrd] 06/1/2006 08:47

Could there also be a degree of switching from OXS I wonder!

[budevenwiser] 06/1/2006 08:43

broker says there's a one liner in the independent about a possitive drilling result due to be announced

[holdontight] 06/1/2006 08:29

Good start

[brad1] 05/1/2006 20:08

I did but collected profit too quickly with JKX! Was hoping to get back in but just didn't for one reason or another - oh well learn from your mistakes thats the aim of the game. With Avn though, there is not much resistance to the all-time high once the 160-170p mark is broken. And we all know that is likely to happen this year!! Been in this company since 13p and I definetely have no intention of selling in the short term - will ride the downs and enjoy the ups. Must admit I don't have time at the moment to all the proper analysis required - otherwise I would probably have much more invested. I am a geologist so can appreciate the exploration data but there is a lot of economics involved too!

[chipperfrd] 05/1/2006 17:30

LOL. So very true!

[holdontight] 05/1/2006 17:18

wish id bought jkx instead, is all it says to me

[saucepan] 05/1/2006 17:12

Now, why didn't I think of that? :-)

Actually, I think is is good to see the two charts separately and juxtaposed.

[pomp circumstance] 05/1/2006 17:04

this gives a nicer indication