Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bionicdog] 12/1/2006 08:24

Yup , that's my 120p on the bid target that I've had for so long well and truly blasted past.

[saucepan] 12/1/2006 08:23

off to a flier :-)

[kojak78] 11/1/2006 08:58

We have to take our lessons from the Primary Metals story:

1. metal prices make a huge difference
2. some mines don't need reserves, just mine (as in the Silver Valley)
3. it's never too late to buy a stock

[corrientes] 10/1/2006 23:11

At an old Minesire conference, at about the time the tungsten asset was being sold,the MD said that according to sods law it was inevitable that they'd regret selling this non-key asset, but you had to do what's best at the time.I remember everyone having a good laugh about this.

[taylor20] 10/1/2006 21:45

Ironically it was the Tungsten side that first got me interested in Avocet, around the time of the depleted uranium hoo har.

[kojak78] 10/1/2006 21:25

"A total of 750,000 warrants exercisable at $0.11 before April 10, 2006 or thereafter at $0.125 before April 10, 2008 are held by Avocet Mining PLC"

worth 1.8 mio US$. With C$0.84 earnings C$8.40 share looks possible, would be worth US$5 mio. I wished Avocet had hold on to the tungsten assets.. or at least to a significant position in primary metals (51% at one time).

[kojak78] 10/1/2006 21:06

We fools!! Why didn't we look at Avocet and why didn't we invest in the best part of it: Primary Minerals (old tungsten assets). I think it was at 50 cent the last time I looked, up 200% or so. I thought it was already over. But the share price went to 3.20 or so, nearly 20x the low. All in 2005 and we didn't notice..

[kojak78] 10/1/2006 19:27

btw. when will this bubble pop?
Desert Sun: US$303/ reserve oz
Gammon Lake: US$419/reserve oz (219 latest reserve figures + silver:gold equiv.)
Yamana: US$318/reserve oz

Wouldn't you prefer:
Avocet Mining: US$70/reserve oz (Taror/Chore included)
Minefinders: US$63/reserve oz
Resolute Mining: US$62/reserve oz (beware of hedging!)

Data from Mineweb.net, except they got the numbers of outstanding Yamana shares (190 mio) wrong. Reserves for Avocet 1.2 mio jorc standard assumed and 2.1 mio in Taror/Chore.

Keep in mind that reserve figures are one thing. The other thing is actual production. Minefinders has ca. 3.6 mio ozs in reserves. 1.95 mio ozs in gold reserves and ca. 100 mio ozs in silver reserves. But they will use heap leaching and produce only 1.44 mio ozs of gold and 53 mio ozs of silver or 2.3 mio ozs altogether (64% recovery).
Avocet on the other hand has only 1.2 mio ozs in jorc standard reserves without Taror/Chore (only pre-feasibility study in the mid 200 cash costs). But they will produce 1.8 to 2 mio oz out of their current mines and 16 years of 130,000 annual ozs out of Taror/Chore, that are 3.88 mio ozs of gold recovered. At Minefinders recovery rates that would be 6 mio ozs of reserves ($38/oz).

Resolute is unfortunately hedged and has slightly higher cash costs.

[kojak78] 10/1/2006 18:08

Avocet is now overbought on slow stochastic and williams %r, but rsi could still climb somewhat above 80. We were more overbought in September than now! And even then prices declined only 15%.
IMO the 10-15% correction will come. But it's not sure from which price level. I favor 330 top for the HUI. Avocet should be able to rise to 125-135 before topping. I don't know how low Avocet will fall, but I guess less than the 10-15% average for the HUI stocks. So the short-term correction low could even be above 121p! But I know that I will buy more Avocet stock at the low once stochastics and williams %r show oversold levels. Doesn't matter if prices are 110, 120 or 130p by then.

[kojak78] 10/1/2006 18:02

Jeff Kern? SKI System? Very accurate predictions so far. He talks about gold stocks, not gold.




We will retreat to the green line, 10.28 in early February, 10 in mid Feb., 11.50 at end Feb.
userx is a gold fund, currently 11.70 or so.
That would be the correction for this year, keep in mind that the average correction in 2005 and 2004 took 4-6 months or so and indices declined 30 or 40%. After that it's up and away, +50% for HUI and XAU.

[holdontight] 10/1/2006 17:33

Who is Jeff Kerns? Many if not most of the gold advisors have been calling gold's top since $300 was broken! We had a correction a few weeks back, when fell from 535 to 490.

[kojak78] 10/1/2006 14:47

Hmm,everyone bails out before the top. Jeff Kern suggests we'll make the top in the next two weeks. Monday und today were down days, so no top yet. Perhaps HUI will go up to 330, XAU to 150 before the top is in.

I don't dare to predict Avocet stock prices in the short term. A correction is due, 10 to 15%. But I don't know if the correction will come now or down from 130p to current levels.

At least we know Avocet will trade closer to 200p than to 100p end of the year.

[holdontight] 10/1/2006 13:23

Gold might pull back further, maybe to 530/535...cant see much lower and dont think we will see sub 500 ever again either.

[holdontight] 10/1/2006 13:22

AVM will not fall below 112p......don't think we will see sub 110p ever again.

[kojak78] 10/1/2006 12:55

Selling time? I expect Avocet to retrace into the 108 to 112 area, perhaps even back to 100p, until early February. If we climb higher now the retracement will take until end February/ mid March.

I won't sell a single share though as I now have my trading positions. Novagold sold yesterday at 10.36 at a 12.6% gain. Resolute mining is up already 22%! No gain for Endeavour Mining Capital though (intend to hold until NAV update). All profits will be put into AVM.

[holdontight] 09/1/2006 23:41

TMG WILL IMO, TRADE ABOVE £1 BEF0RE END 2006. ABOVE £2 IS ALSO ON THE CARDS, IMO!

[holdontight] 09/1/2006 23:34

To respond to your first point as well........SO DID AVM !!!!!!

[holdontight] 09/1/2006 23:33

Read the presentation

[wolstencroft] 09/1/2006 23:14

trouble with TMG is 1) it went bust before and 2) Lucas, who annoyed lots of people last time it went bust with plenty of arrogant and inaccurate rhetoric - is he still there?

[holdontight] 09/1/2006 23:08

Welcome back, Kojak....but take a CLOSER LOOK at TMG, will you.......I think a bargain, potentially.

[kojak78] 09/1/2006 22:39

Hmm, Novagold has to finance Galore Creek in Q4. I guess that means underperformance until financing, then the "mysterious" run up just after the financing when the bought deals with options etc. are through. No thanks, I don't want a company financing 1.1bn. Avocet is cheaper and doesn't has to finance. Once again my plans to diversify out of AVM are coming to an end :(

[kojak78] 09/1/2006 20:36

At least I sold my Novagold at 10.36 today so that I have some fresh capital to spend..

[saucepan] 09/1/2006 19:25

For what it is worth, I think gold has had its pullback for the time being and that the next leg up is well underway. If this proves to be a steady climb, any retracements may not be too severe.

As to the short term: AVM may well be in for an exciting day tomorrow.

[holdontight] 09/1/2006 19:10

TMG presentation also states STX listing in Q1 2006.