Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[kickstart] 29/12/2005 09:50

Up on thin volume so far today. Lets hope this is the start of 'catch up' time.

[wolstencroft] 28/12/2005 20:44

forget the hui - many of my canadians have gone up some dramtically recently but likewise all my uk golds are just trundling along. I hope that there is a hare and tortoise analogy but only time will tell.

[kojak78] 28/12/2005 20:30

first of all avm has to do 25 to 30% catch up, look at bigcharts symbol avvgf and compare to the hui. 200 dma still falling.

[kenburns] 28/12/2005 16:30

Bounced nicely off previous resistance level of 104...where to next i wonder?
I think it will be a prosperous year for AVM holders.

[chipperfrd] 23/12/2005 16:41

Thanks for the summary Bud and a very happy Christmas to all.
Chip.

[saucepan] 23/12/2005 15:35

Happy Christmas everyone.

[pecker1] 23/12/2005 13:40

bud,

Thanks for the reminder and for your informative posts during the year.

My hunch is that AVM will surprise us in 2006. The recent stake in Dynasty in China could be the first of several acquisitions to build resources, and the operating cashflow and profits you mention plus dividends should alert the institutions to the fact that AVM has proved it has recovered from the tungsten debacle, knows where it is going and has the management strength to deliver. IMHO, a core holding for the gold bull.

Happy Christmas too!

[budevenwiser] 23/12/2005 12:04

just a little reminder of what we can expect each quarter and for the next 12 months if gold stays around $500




penjom
30 000 x 500 = 15 000 000
costs say $220 = 6 600 000
pretax = 8 400 000

north lanut

15 000 production
12 000 x 305 = 3 660 000
3 000 x 500 = 1 500 000
costs say 180 = 2 700 000
pretax = 2 460 000

zeravshan

lets assume breakeven with higher grade ore and dump leech

cost of hedge

12 000 x 195 = 2 340 000


pretax $10 860 000
that includes taking care of the hedge at north lanut

12 months
pretax = 10 860 000 x 4 = $43 440 000
change to stirling using exchange rate of 1.7 = £25 552 941
roughly 15 to 16p eps

these rough calcs are based on 120 000 from penjom 60 000 from n lanut and 40 000 from zer this takes no account of n lanut beating these targets as they did 6000 in october alone also zeravshan had best october in 12 months now mining higher grade ore and using the low grade ore for the new dump leech which is expected to produce 12 000 ouces per year
average of 500 an ounce for next 12 months will do me fine

oh and a happy xmas and happy prosperous new year to us all

[brad1] 23/12/2005 08:04

a nice little rise today will see a good start to the new year

[kojak78] 22/12/2005 15:20

HUI made 4% in the last 5 trading days while Avocet lost 4.5 percent in price and 1.5% in currency. 10% underperformance vs. the HUI - once again.

[kojak78] 22/12/2005 09:49

It can be so simple:

May 01, 2005: TNX.TO = C$1.00
May 10, 2005: Tan Range Receives American Stock Exchange Approval
Dec 22, 2005: TNX.TO = C$5.37 = +437%

The chart tells us the Amex listing was indeed the starting point of the rally.

[kojak78] 21/12/2005 21:46

The hedge reduction is 4000 oz per month. $195 x 4000 x 12 = $9.36 mio = GBP5.36 mio = 5.1p per share.

I think that would be a reasonable amount for the proposed dividend. We have 50000 oz left, 26000 for financial 2007. That means 2 to 3p dividend in financial 2007 and 5p and more in 2008.

In fact if 4000 ozs of monthly production were set aside for dividend purposes the the actual dividend would be (price of gold - 300)/40 pence per share. $900 price of gold in 2008 means 15p dividend!

[brad1] 21/12/2005 16:20

Purely a shake - takeoff will occur. Need gold to establish a good support level and time will prove our patience. I have no worries holding this for however long required. Just bought a little of the yellow stuff to hide away for a good while.

[kojak78] 21/12/2005 16:13

Did anybody read the pwc study on aim "junior mine"? 9500 mio market cap, 2500 mio shareholder's equity and 640 mio revenue, no earnings but a loss of a few millions.

As the average AIM listed company Avocet should trade above 200 based on shareholder's equity and above 540 based on revenue (although that high figure comes from companies like POG and Bema with big reserves but low production profile).

I have the feeling that aim will have its share of successful companies after that huge amount of capital injection. After all Avocet isn't that badly positioned.

[holdontight] 20/12/2005 22:07

Thanks for that. Gold looks like a buy at 490 to me.

[taylor20] 20/12/2005 21:48

Dynasty drilling progressing:

[trader horne] 20/12/2005 12:42

The bigger picture (extract from Bernie Schaeffer's year-end commentary:-

The Golden Ticket -
Gold futures spent the waning days of 2005 overtaking the $500 level to notch a new 22-year high. The $500 level is perilous territory for the yellow metal, and not just because of the psychological significance of the half-millennium mark. $500 defined a historical peak for gold in 1982 and 1987, and represents a doubling of the commodity's 1999 and 2001 lows. And if you like your technical analysis with a side of Fibonacci, a 38.2-percent retracement between gold's January 1980 peak and its 2001 nadir comes in right at $500.

Sentiment is a mixed bag on gold. Small traders are liquidating long positions, even while the metal is scaling higher. Data from Fidelity sector funds shows that inflows into the Gold Fund have been less than impressive, in spite of a 31-percent increase in the fund's net asset value (NAV) over the past six months. This dichotomy suggests that the public is not fully on board with the gold rally, giving it room to run higher in the future.

It is quite possible, given the number of big players wrapped up in commodities trading, that the gold market is subject to multiple sentiment cycles at the same time, making it subject to sharp reversals. Overall, I feel the public is a long way from saturating the gold market, and thus it is far too early in the sentiment cycle to call a top for the metal. That said, sentiment over the short term is much more bullish, making gold vulnerable to a solid pullback as the result of increased optimism. But inflation watchers beware, $500 for gold could be a sign that the inflation specter is a higher-probability event than most projections are calling for.

[holdontight] 19/12/2005 12:45

agreed. looking for year end closer to 125 than 105, imo

[brad1] 19/12/2005 08:29

I sense another turn up either today or tomorrow. Wont be long b4 110 is broken imo.

[hectorp] 16/12/2005 18:20

closed short. Neutral - will a'lurk.

[kojak78] 16/12/2005 06:50

New low at least in the gold price. Down US$50 for this week.

[hectorp] 15/12/2005 19:19

Its always amusing when one posters goes short and then Wha! from protestors.
Well at least I'm not gloating on you.
budenweiser .. maybe two more p then. I do see a larger buyer around too.
H.

[kojak78] 15/12/2005 14:39

Gold up today (so far), if XAU and HUI climb today we should have seen the lows. AVM still has some way to go down as it trades as usually and follows the HUI by one day or two.

Just try to imagine:
Scenario 1:
Gold goes to 500, breaks down to 475, then goes up to 495.
Scenario 2:
Gold goes to 500, then to 540, breaks down to 505.

If scenario 1 had taken place all advisors would be bullish for the gold price. Scenario 2 took place and advisors are bearish even though the gold price is higher by $10. Newsletter writers were at $500 more bearish than at $465! I guess they are now even more bearish than at gold $465 and we're $40 higher.