Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[budevenwiser] 09/12/2005 15:19

nope not yet saucepan mate
needs to break out to make new high and on good volume and stay above breakout for a couple of days

[saucepan] 09/12/2005 15:04

Very interesting analysis and numbers, Bud. And, just to to do the easy bit: eps of 15p and a price around 100p equates to a PER of less than seven! Far too cheap, as we all know.

By the way: looks like the ascending triangle has resolved itself :-)

[budevenwiser] 09/12/2005 14:47

just done a little adding up going forward
say we average $500 for the next 4 quarters

penjom
30 000 x 500 = 15 000 000
costs say $220 = 6 600 000
pretax = 8 400 000

north lanut

15 000 production
12 000 x 305 = 3 660 000
3 000 x 500 = 1 500 000
costs say 180 = 2 700 000
pretax = 2 460 000

zeravshan

lets assume breakeven with higher grade ore and dump leech

cost of hedge

12 000 x 195 = 2 340 000


pretax $10 860 000
that includes taking care of the hedge at north lanut

12 months
pretax = 10 860 000 x 4 = $43 440 000
change to stirling using exchange rate of 1.7 = £25 552 941
roughly 15 to 16p eps

these rough calcs are based on 120 000 from penjom 60 000 from n lanut and 40 000 from zer this takes no account of n lanut beating these targets as they did 6000 in october alone also zeravshan had best october in 12 months now mining higher grade ore and and using the low grade ore for the new dump leech which is expected to produce 12 000 ouces per year
average of 500 an ounce for next 12 months will do me fine

[yikyak] 09/12/2005 14:30

kojak78, so that's where you have been hiding it, i've been looking everywhere :-)

I don't agree with your pessimism over physical and remember you put it into physical to make it more inconvenient and by default more difficult for yourself to get thrown off the golden bull. Patience.

A balance of physical and equities is by far the best option imho, you have the right mix at the moment by the sound of it.

[bialystock] 09/12/2005 14:06

mjcrockret,

Thanks for your bringing me up to date with the current hedge situation, which confirms that the light can indeed now be seen at the end of the tunnel. The hedge must surely be one of the principal reasons why this share has been deemed up to now by so many knowledgeable PI's and professional commentators, to be both underloved and undervalued. It's imminnent abandonment together with the long list of positives regularly aired here plus all the excitement of POG currently doing all it should be doing to confirm the long term cycle story, points to a holding in this company as almost essential IMHO.

I bought in for the first time this morning and had to pay 97.5 for the privilige, but so many times I've watched it stay stuck in a torpor while either POG or other stocks outperformed it and backed off as a result, only to see it come good in the end. Quality will out basically, and I don't want to be kicking myself looking at a 197 share price sometime early next year, because talk about hedges or the lack of management promotional skills prevented me from buying at 97 now. If it's as good as is believed, and if gold does what we expect it to, barring pullbacks in both POG and stocks, this should indeed be looking at two pounds rather than one before too long IMHO.

[saucepan] 09/12/2005 13:43

hi richgit. why the low profiling? I miss your entertaining and informative posts. I don't see why you can't contribute to getting the AVM share price up to 240p and beyond :-)

[kojak78] 09/12/2005 13:42

Terrible thing happened today. The German magazine "Wirtschaftswoche" has a cover story about gold. The article is written quite well. But it is a contrarian signal for the end of the bull market for gold at least in the Euro area. Such a scenario would mean gold prices between Euro 400 and 440 in the next 6 to 12 months. IMO US gold prices should indeed go to 650 in 2006 and 900 in 2007. So if we see a (temporary) end of the gold bull in Euro denominated terms that means a sharply higher Euro (1.45 to 1.55). Currently I'm quite bearish on the Euro and don't think we'll see such exchange rates. Perhaps attacking Iran (wich could mean victory for Iran in the short term by closing the golf with their hundreds of superior Soviet missiles) could bring with it such exchange rates.

However, if such a scenario unfolds gold stocks will go higher still (in US$ terms). If the British Pound mirrors the Euro we'll see exchange rates below 1.40 to the US$.. so 150 XAU level means a 25% gain and 125p AVM prices at 1.40 US$/GBP vs. 101p at 1.74 US$/GBP mean a 54% gain. So outperformance of AVM share price could come by currency adjustments.

Next week I'm going to travel to Hamburg and sell some (20% to 70%) of my physical holdings! I hope I'm right. I guess I'll just buy some more AVM.

[bestbuddy] 09/12/2005 13:24

Here we go.
Could be the first time i ever made serious money on a spreadbet.
Happy christmas everybody.

[holdontight] 09/12/2005 11:56

bout bloody time too....should be £2 not £1!!!

[pecker1] 09/12/2005 11:40

AVM waking up from its slumbers.

[mjcrockett] 08/12/2005 17:26

bialystock, The following extract from last month's interims answers your question:

'As part of a US$10 million revolving credit facility from Macquarie Bank of Australia the Company has agreed to liquidate at least 4,000 ounces of this gold hedge per month commencing April 2005. As of today's date 50,000 hedged ounces (2004: 80,000 ounces) remain outstanding with an average delivery price of US$305/oz.'

By my calculations they should be hedge free about this time next year.

MJ

[bialystock] 08/12/2005 17:17

Can somebody please remind me about the hedge. What are the actual dynamics of it and at what point in time would AVM be totally hedge free ?

Many thanks

[budevenwiser] 08/12/2005 16:23

saucepan
did'nt want to mention it before in case it failed but there is a nice ascending triangle forming
change the six month chart to candlestick and it starts in mid sept nice uptrend and 2 tops , if and it is a big if we can break out to the upside of it we will also have a 3rd attempt breakout which would be very bullish
i live in hope the eternal optomist

[saucepan] 08/12/2005 15:43

Looking at the chart, today's tick could be a significant turning point literally and metaphorically, and perhaps one to look back on: this is where the meteoric rise in AVM began. Wishful thinking? We shall see.

[brad1] 08/12/2005 15:34

this will not stay "best kept secret" for long.

[corrientes] 08/12/2005 12:00

I wouldn't go so far as to say that.

[zaky] 08/12/2005 10:01

"...Manana Mining Limited..."


Don't you mean Banana Mining Limited?

[corrientes] 07/12/2005 23:02

As if AVM ever related to the gold price. Regular as clockwork the experts say best thing since sliced bread and every time they're wrong. Better to call the company Manana Mining Limited. No way will there be a Canadian listing. The directors don't want to lose their sinecure.Thank goodness for US and Canadian gold stocks.This one's good for tax planning though.

[jk8] 07/12/2005 22:44

Presumably the share price performance can only mean that investors think that the rise in the pog is going to be short lived.

[kojak78] 07/12/2005 17:44

I mentioned the hedge back in 2002.. so the delay is over 2 years. I always remember that the decision back in 2002 was either close the hedge or build North Lanut. I think the decision to build North Lanut was the right one.

The one thing I want of AVM is a TSE listing.

[pecker1] 07/12/2005 17:31

Perhaps it might help if some of us had a polite word in their ears about the lack of promotion - after all, they can do something about this if they wanted too.

A number of us did the same about the hedge and they eventually did something about it, albeit at least six to nine months after they should have done - a delay that has probably cost $1m or so of foregone profits and one can only guess at the opportunity cost in terms of market cap. IMHO, OXS's earlier than expected hedge-free status has helped to propel the recent rise in the OXS shareprice.

[budevenwiser] 07/12/2005 16:26

well i have also added today
i have far far to many eggs in one basket
spoke to jonathan henry last friday and he said everthing was fine so i have to believe him