Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bestbuddy] 07/12/2005 16:11

Guys,
I think on knowns, this is as good as it get for potential profit at this current level. Does make you wonder what is unknown however director buys and more significantly the directors wife buys would indicate that something nasty is not wiating in the shadows.
If gold pulls back to the $500 or even $480 i would not expect to see AVM change much as i think a pull back of this level would not be a suprise. However, i thought it quite interesting that the daily trend of gold changed today which in my view indicates that this is less likely.
There is a feeling that at this level AVM appears so undervalued that something must be wrong but this would not be the first time that AVM share price has behaved like this, eventually coming good days/weeks later.
Maybe i'll run a spread as i already have too much in this one share.

[artful dodger] 07/12/2005 16:05

my noddy chart head says this;

preceding price history shows strong uptrend with series of higher highs and higher lows. If we don't make a higher high this time, we have made a double top and lord knows why we should be at a trend reversal point with the gold price breaking out.

simple simon says avm is a buy.

i have added more today as I convinced myself!

[budevenwiser] 07/12/2005 15:33

gold broken out
xau broken out
hui broken out
where are we , where we were 14 months ago with gold now about $100 higher looks like avm forever the bridesmaid

[kojak78] 07/12/2005 15:29

btw $228/oz valuation for Yamana..

At least AVM is as oversold as it was at 73p, so it could go to 125p very soon.

I for myself will stick to the old rule: invest in an undervalued miner and gain double the XAU percentage gains. Until early 2005 this rule held true for AVM. Now the rule demands 193p before I'm admitted to sell.

[chipperfrd] 07/12/2005 15:24

But Yamana is listed on the premier mining exchange whereas AVM appears invisible on AIM.

Yamana's lse listing has neglible volume - all the action is on the TSE.

An AVM listing in Toronto would probably work wonders for the share price

[kojak78] 07/12/2005 15:18

The problem is Yamana is already valued 3x as high as Avocet, so when Yamana gains say 6% Avocet has to gain 18% just to increase valuation in $ per oz by the same amount.

[pecker1] 07/12/2005 15:14

Well, I think there is a logic to some of the rises. Yesterday, Yamana, Nevsun and one or two others led the field with double digit gains because IMHO, they are regarded as the next in line for being gobbled up by the majors. Unlike AVM they have one/two big projects (2+m oz at the start of their lives)- easier to manage and absorb.

If, as I hope and expect,Idenburg turns out to promise a district with several mines feeding one or two processing plants producing 300k oz pa then things will change. But we are perhaps a couple of years away from that.

Looking ahead, AVM, with a strategic move into China, very profitable, paying dividends and, hopefully, 400+k unhedged oz production by 2008, will be an attractive, well-diversified, lower risk gold producer. I'm expecting it to be a three or four bagger over this period and more if gold exceeds $600 oz. So, for me, it is a core holding while I also have some fun with the more speculative exploration and production juniors. And there is always the chance that another intermediate might propose a synergistic merger, where 2 + 2 = 5, ie the market values a 1 million oz producer more highly than two smaller producers.

[wolstencroft] 07/12/2005 14:41

bestBuddy: What will happen is that AVM will go nowhere in the bull run and then when gold reverses, AVM will fall with it :-)

Lower-quality plays on Canada are all soaring, as is Oxus. Its very strange...

[supersturrock] 07/12/2005 11:34

Hold AVM and thinking of getting some GOL. Any of you gold bugs have a view on these ?

[bestbuddy] 07/12/2005 11:31

513 and rising, are we going to get the mid afternoon dip or is it going to break the rising trend resistance? I think from another thread 516 was identified as the reversal point so if it can break this then i assume the threat of a pull back is less likely.
I cannot believe that with all the director buys, contracts and rising profit margins that AVM can resist. I assume that the next increase will be sharp and significant taking us above £1.00 for good.
Topped up again today

[budevenwiser] 07/12/2005 10:08

for over a week now evo has been on the offer reportedly with a large seller around this level ,and a large buyer just below ( why they could'nt match them up in the middle i dont know ) in all this time electronicly you could only sell 100 shares to them , now they are on the bid and you can do 25 000 , dont know if the seller has seen the gold price and pulled out but hopefully we may see an upmove today

[pecker1] 06/12/2005 20:14

Saucepan,

It's the sheer size of Dynasty's three prospective territories that takes some getting used to, together with the fact that they have barely started to scratch the surface, quite literally. IMHO, better here than in Russia (where gangsterism rules). For AVM to pick this up now while the big boys stand watching is truly satisfying!

I think I see a way the China strategy could unfold - pretty obvious if you think about the players involved, stakes etc and the catalyst could be the next set of drill results. Interesting times are ahead!

[wolstencroft] 06/12/2005 19:52

I topped up today. To be fair, a lot of the juniors are not performing how one migthexpect - in both base metals and gold, but in any absolute or relative measure AVM is underperforming.

[bestbuddy] 06/12/2005 17:15

Is the silence one of disbelief?
Looks like another top up may be on the cards tomorrow.

[pecker1] 06/12/2005 14:32

Dynasty deal - more info than the RNS:

[pecker1] 05/12/2005 10:45

Dave,

thanks - good summary.

[wolstencroft] 05/12/2005 10:22

saucepan: Likewise for me AVM is a big holding. If AVM were in fact just three non-porducing exploration companies progressing feasibilities in each of the three countries I can easily imagine each company being worth about £25m, yet as a whole and being a proven profitable producer you can buy it for £100m.

Lets say they eventually manage 220,000 ounces at 250 cash costs in the medium term, that is £30m cash flow. There are only a few other gold miners around on foreward cash-flow multiples like that, either unproven (e.g. Hambledon, European Minerals), recovering from dire straights (e.g. RNC) or with limited or unknown upside (e.g. Serabi). (BTW there is nothing wrong with those companies I hold them all, but AVM is valued as if it were either unproven, having limited upside, or a recovery play)

[pecker1] 05/12/2005 09:11

Dave,

if you have a moment , perhaps you could update the header to include AVM's recent strategic stake in Dynasty, particularly the Hatu project which the RNS said could be brought into production relatively quickly.

At this rate we could see a dump leach mine at Bakan in operation by end 2007, followed by Hatu, Buffalo Reef, Penjom underground, Chore, Taror, Idenburg, and, perhaps Pusian, Saursai and others - take your pick! IMHO, this list begins to make the stated intention of becoming a 1 million oz producer sound more and more credible.

My personal preference would be for AVM to get the relatively cheaper and quicker dump leap operations, like Bakan, up and running and generating cash first so that it could largely finance the more expensive Chore type projects from internal funds, thereby avoiding dilution or onerous hedging/derivatives that come with borrowed money.

[pecker1] 02/12/2005 19:48

bud,

good to hear the Zeravshan production news. Seems like the Jilau dump leach for low grade ore is reaching a reasonable output and the CIL plant is getting a better feed now the high wall stripping has been completed. So perhaps recovery will become readily apparent by the end of the FY in march 2006.

Lanut's extra production should go a long way to cancel out the negative effect of hedge reduction on the bottom line.

[mjcrockett] 02/12/2005 19:06

Budevenwiser, thanks for the info. North Lanut production looks good. We were told in the interims that they producing at an annualised rate of 50,000 ozs. I would have thought if they can do 6000 ozs in one month then an average of 5000 per month (i.e. 60,000 per year) would be comfortably achievable. If so, an extra 10,000 ozs per year at less than $200/oz cost makes a huge difference to the bottom line.

MJ