Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[kojak78] 01/11/2005 08:25

My numbers are based on estimated current production. IMO production will increase to 265000 without new mines in 1 or 2 years.

The most interesting fact in the Placer Dome takeover is that the new Barrick corporation will cost ca. 22 bn. for 150 mio oz in reserves. Now consider South African reserves and hedges and you're right there at 105 mio oz (28 mio oz South Deep and 15.6 mio oz in hedges). That's US$210/oz. Compare that with Newmont's US$202/oz. Or Agnico's US$146/oz.

[goml] 01/11/2005 07:12

According to Kojak's numbers they are 3.13 times AVM per prod oz excluding Taror/Chore. You then have to consider that a blue chip major like Placer warrants a higher rating. AVM still very undervalued though but like we've always said they've got to show increased reserves and they've got to bring new mines on line to show real growth in production.

[holdontight] 31/10/2005 22:09

and WITHOUT Taror/Chore??

[kojak78] 31/10/2005 21:23

Well, valuation in US$/production oz shows that Placer Dome is valued 5.62x as high as Avocet with Taror/Chore production is.

[holdontight] 31/10/2005 21:13

KOJAK.....it's LATE mate, put in simple terms please....ta!

[kojak78] 31/10/2005 20:48

Placer Dome: 9200 mio / 3.65 mio oz prod. = US$2520/oz
Avocet Mining: 177 mio / .22 mio oz prod. = US$804/oz
Avocet Mining full prod. + Taror/Chore: 177 mio / .395 mio oz prod. = US$448/oz

448 / 2520 = 17.8%
2520 / 448 = 562.5%

[holdontight] 31/10/2005 19:23

Need some PR...so undervalued it's ridiculous.....no overall movement for 12 months now

[jk8] 31/10/2005 18:43

bud - the web site says 16th November for the interims.

[budevenwiser] 31/10/2005 09:00

have heard avm management will be doing a presentation on the 22nd nov at charles stanleys london office for the first time , so interims must be before or on that day , small company but a good one ,
same as holdontight says any pr is better than what we have now .

[budevenwiser] 26/10/2005 21:39

here you go th






Cup with Handle (Continuation)

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The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. It was developed by William O'Neil and introduced in his 1988 book, How to Make Money in Stocks.

As its name implies, there are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance.



Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential.
Cup: The cup should be "U" shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A "V" shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer "U" shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the "U". The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.
Cup Depth: Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which is conforms with Dow Theory.
Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement is, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.
Duration: The cup can extend from 1 to 6 months, sometimes longer on weekly charts. The handle can be from 1 week to many weeks and ideally completes within 1-4 weeks.
Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance.
Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.
As with most chart patterns, it is more important to capture the essence of the pattern than the particulars. The cup is a bowl-shaped consolidation and the handle is a short pullback followed by a breakout with expanding volume. A cup retracement of 62% may not fit the pattern requirements, but a particular stock's pattern may still capture the essence of the Cup with Hand






Double Top (Reversal)

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The double top is a major reversal pattern that forms after an extended uptrend. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in between.



Although there can be variations, the classic double top marks at least an intermediate change, if not long-term change, in trend from bullish to bearish. Many potential double tops can form along the way up, but until key support is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the key points in the formation and then walk through an example.

Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the double top, a significant uptrend of several months should be in place.
First Peak: The first peak should mark the highest point of the current trend. As such, the first peak is fairly normal and the uptrend is not in jeopardy (or in question) at this time.
Trough: After the first peak, a decline takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the decline from the first peak is usually inconsequential. The lows are sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit, which can be a sign of tepid demand.
Second Peak: The advance off the lows usually occurs with low volume and meets resistance from the previous high. Resistance from the previous high should be expected. Even after meeting resistance, only the possibility of a double top exists. The pattern still needs to be confirmed. The time period between peaks can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact peaks are preferable, there is some leeway. Usually a peak within 3% of the previous high is adequate.
Decline from Peak: The subsequent decline from the second peak should witness an expansion in volume and/or an accelerated descent, perhaps marked with a gap or two. Such a decline shows that the forces of demand are weaker than supply and a support test is imminent.
Support Break: Even after trading down to support, the double top and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking support from the lowest point between the peaks completes the double top. This too should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated descent.
Support Turned Resistance: Broken support becomes potential resistance and there is sometimes a test of this newfound resistance level with a reaction rally. Such a test can offer a second chance to exit a position or initiate a short.
Price Target: The distance from support break to peak can be subtracted from the support break for a price target. This would infer that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential decline.
While the double top formation may seem straightforward, technicians should take proper steps to avoid deceptive double tops. The peaks should be separated by about a month. If the peaks are too close, they could just represent normal resistance rather than a lasting change in the supply/demand picture. Ensure that the low between the peaks declines at least 10%. Declines less than 10% may not be indicative of a significant increase in selling pressure. After the decline, analyze the trough for clues on the strength of demand. If the trough drags on a bit and has trouble moving back up, demand could be drying up. When the security does advance, look for a contraction in volume as a further indication of weakening demand.

Perhaps the most important aspect of a double top is to avoid jumping the gun. Wait for support to be broken in a convincing manner, and usually with an expansion of volume. A price or time filter can be applied to differentiate between valid and false support breaks. A price filter might require a 3% support break before validation. A time filter might require the support break to hold for 3 days before considering it valid. The trend is in force until proven otherwise. This applies to the double top as well. Until support is broken in a convincing manner, the trend remains up.

[trader horne] 26/10/2005 14:27

I think it is a cup and not a double top (how do you tell the difference before it's too late?)

[hectorp] 25/10/2005 17:20

Look at that gold price rally..
dollar plmmeting now. Good for gold stocks tomorrow AVM, OXS etc.

[budevenwiser] 25/10/2005 14:15

looks like a sugar bowl to me saucepan

[saucepan] 25/10/2005 13:58

I (incorrectly) thought we were away last time, when we flirted above the 100p parapet. However, arguably, the minor retracement and beginnings of a recovery have now created a cup and handle formation. Very bullish; especially when forming in an uptrend. That is, if you believe in such things!

[brad1] 25/10/2005 09:49

nICE TO SEE THE PRICE RISE ON LOW VOLUME. hOPEFULLY BRINGING US CLOSE TO RECENT high (resistance). Have a feeling this will fly when this resistance is broke imo. Interims due in a month so looking forward with anticipation.

[wolstencroft] 24/10/2005 16:35

Gosh did it take me 5 minutes to write that in which time Phillis came up with a more eloquent explanation

[wolstencroft] 24/10/2005 16:34

To me it means this:

When shares are issued they have a nominal (face) value. In Avocet's case its 25p. This also represents the nominal share capital in the company, i.e. the amount which - a long time ago - was invested in the company in return for the issue of one share. The market price at which a share trades (and at which new shares with nomincal value of 25p are issued) bears no relation to its nominal value.

However, there are some complex accounting rules which means that sometimes, especially on companies that have a trading history of losing money and dont have retained profits, in order to pay dividends, the nominal value must be reduced.

So what it means to me is, in fact: Avocet are preparing to pay a divided.

[phillis] 24/10/2005 16:29

You can only pay a dividened out of distributable reserves. AVM has none, having a large retained loss.
By reducing the nominal share value the difference (which is in the share premium acccount) gets transferred to distributable reserves thus eliminating the loss - leaving a positive balance which can be dividended out in future

[holdontight] 24/10/2005 16:20

I have absoltely no idea either....would like someone to explain ????

[hgiderek] 24/10/2005 10:34

ANY ACCOUNTANT / FINANCE EXPERTS CARE TO COMMENT ON THE FOLLOWING ???

"AVOCET MINING

You currently hold within our Nominee System, XXXXX Avocet Mining GBP0.25 Ordinary Shares. The company is proposing a reduction of capital, subject to shareholder approval at an EGM to be held on the 11th November 2005.

The Company proposes to reduce the share capital by cancelling paid up capital to the extent of 20 pence on each Ordinary Share of 25 pence, reducing the nominal value of each Ordinary Share to 5p.

We trust you will find this information of interest. Your portfolio will be updated to reflect this reduction of capital, if approval is granted.

At the time of writing, Avocet Mining GBP0.25 Ordinary Shares were trading at 95.00p – 98.00p.

Yours sincerely,

James Brearley & Sons Limited
Operational Management Team"

[kojak78] 20/10/2005 18:35

Could be, but considering North Lanut is producing for 12 months now and has only reached full capacity recently construction time isn't the issue. South Sulawesi, Idenburg and Tajikistan exploration could add upside, too.

[pecker1] 20/10/2005 15:35

kojak,

re your optimistic scenario for AVM in 2007. Given the speed with which Lanut was permitted and developed, there would seem a good chance that either Bakan or Pusian, depending on which looked the most promising, could be in production before end 2007. Obviously much will depend on whether their ore can be processed using the same kind of fairly simple heap leach method that is used at Lanut.

[kojak78] 20/10/2005 15:28

and the internals (macd + rsi) are back to the same levels they were when the price was 73. 124 next target?