Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[andy] 13/10/2005 11:59

Holdontight,

Very possibly, but today's fall is somewhat steep, and with the current high POG, it makes you wonder whether anything else is up!

I hope not.

[kojak78] 13/10/2005 11:59

You forget the relative performance vs. the XAU. Any XAU stock made much more gains. Why, if this one is so much undervalued? AVM has to rise 35% just to come on par with the XAU. Will that happen? No. This is a clear sell and will fall below 69. AVM bull market is over. The falling pound will magnify losses.

[holdontight] 13/10/2005 11:52

Think you are all over reacting. The move from mid 80's to £1+ was very quick and a fall back to low/mid 90's was on the cards if £1 was not more significantly broken and sustained.

[kojak78] 13/10/2005 11:49

Right. Could very well be a double top as the XAU is at 110, too. IMO it will go lower than 69.

This one made 20% while DRDGold would have made 54%, not too late to switch I guess.

[andy] 13/10/2005 11:46

Kojak,

Well I'm going to lock in profits if it falls any further.

We can always buy back later!

[kojak78] 13/10/2005 11:45

Something is wrong for sure. If AVM behaved as it had from 2002 to 2004 than the outperformance into March 2005 would have been reasonable. Then AVM should have made 2x the XAU performance as it has in the past. Means AVM would be 67% higher if nothing were wrong. Let's see what it is, I'll sell 50% of my holding, if it falls deeper the rest.

[kojak78] 13/10/2005 11:39

15% below Nov peak while the XAU is right there back again at 110.

Measured from March AVM is down 9% while the XAU has risen 26%.

Relative performance: -28%

Something wrong behind the scene?

[saucepan] 13/10/2005 11:35

The drop does not seem justified on the reported number of trades. What is going on is anyone's guess at times like these.

[brad1] 13/10/2005 11:25

well it is producing another buying opportunity. Will wait for the turn before lumping in again.

[kojak78] 13/10/2005 08:32

Hm, currency adjusted we're still down 12% from Nov. 2004 top. At least Catchpole bought some shares at these prices.

[chambeaj] 12/10/2005 12:07

Precious metals get inflation-hedge boost


Gold edged closer to an 18-year high, while platinum matched its 25-year peak, with precious metals high on the shopping lists of investors as a good hedge against possible strong gains in inflation.

[andy] 12/10/2005 11:50

kojak,

POG approaching $479 again!

[kojak78] 11/10/2005 13:12

Frank Barbera's Junior Gold Producer Index is still down 33% from the 2004 highs. Junior producers have 50% upside vs. the XAU. Avocet has outperformed other junior producers and is still half as expensive as the cheapest of them are.

-price of gold is undervalued compared to oil
-gold stocks are undervalued compared to gold
-junior producers are undervalued compared to producers, explorers and developers
-avocet is undervalued compared to junior producers

That are four levers working for us. Working for price increases in real terms, inflation adjusted figures.

[holdontight] 10/10/2005 15:18

Yep,,,, gonna be very interesting times

[kojak78] 10/10/2005 15:06

Did you notice? Whenever something hits a xx-year high, it's something worth buying. Huh, it's so damned expensive, I better wait..

xx-year high means nothing else than that the price before xx-years was as high as today and was much higher in inflation adjusted prices.

Remember the stock market? 1982 Dow 1000, was a 16 year high. After that it was from new all-time high to new all-time high and nobody cares about how high it is.

1. We need to get past 500 to break the 18 year high to get a 25 year high.
2. We need to get past 800/850
3. ultimately we will reach some figure from 3000 to 9000 in this bull market, perhaps even as soon as 2012

The really interesting thing will start soon, the remergence of the gold-standard. Some countries will try to reintroduce a gold-standard once inflation figures are back in the double digits. Well, China could do that, perhaps! We can't do it, not as long as there is a welfare state. I don't think any politian will cancel all those old entitlements. Hyperinflation here we come.

Does that mean we will become more price competitive on world markets? Nope. 1985 when the Japanese Yen doubled in value instead of crashing Japanese exports *increased* in the double digits..

This is the end of the western world as we know it and there's no turning back.

[pecker1] 10/10/2005 11:17

kojak,

Hedge reduction will affect the figures. Assuming say a 25,000 oz reduction in the first half of the year, AVM will be selling the gold at around $300 per oz as opposed to say an average of $430. So revenue and gross profit will be $3.25m less than it would have been without the hedge reduction.

Hopefully, an increase in production will mitigate the effects on the bottom line. Provided this is understood there should not be any disappointment with the interims. And an announcement of drill results from Idenburg and elsewhere should add a major positive.

[kojak78] 10/10/2005 10:49

The p/e ratio is still below 7 based on annualized current figures. No need for drilling results or hedge reduction. Full production + Taror Chore will bring it down below 3, that's far more important than drilling results or hedges.

[brad1] 10/10/2005 10:16

Patience required. Needs to find support for the bounce, then I reckon we will see some sustained upward movement. Looking forward to results next month where hopefully there will be a significant reduction in the hedge.

[saucepan] 10/10/2005 09:46

Surely a bounce away from 100p soon, on strength of gold?

[mr ashley james] 10/10/2005 09:34

Yikyak,

AVM Looks like a buy here for run at 130p IMO

Drilling Results Awaited On Indenberg

[yikyak] 07/10/2005 16:57

Nice pop on sterling gold: £268.73

[andy] 07/10/2005 15:49

Bud,

Re Jilau, to the best of my recollection, they didn't mention they had finished, simply that they were proceeding, but that may not be correct.

I'm sure it was Henry that said they were going to Jakarta "in the normal course of business", but I'm relying on my memory.

[budevenwiser] 07/10/2005 15:36

andy
think i better speak to catchpole again next week
first time i spoke to henry in june he said they would announce the result of the first hole early july ( i thought that odd just one hole )spoke againn to henry early sept he said they had a meeting and decided it would be misleading to announce result of one hole but they were all going to jakarta early oct to announce results on the strengh of 5 holes but would know result of all ten by then
think he's maybe telling me what i want to here
would have been nice but i'm more interested in jilau at the moment to find out if they have finished stripping and are now processing that higher grade ore

[andy] 07/10/2005 15:19

Bud,

They denied they were going to Jakarta to make an announcement at the AGM, when I asked.

They said they were going, in the normal course of business, but not to make any announcements.

They were surprised to hear that there was an 'announcement' rumour.

They also stated they would 'probably' update the resoures with the interims in November.