Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[corrientes] 13/10/2005 19:01

Will confidence converted into dividends stimulate takeover interest given its
low ounces/price rating and the major consolidation happening in the mining business ?

[jeddah jo] 13/10/2005 18:53

I think the reason for the share's underperformance can be readily explained in terms of market dynamics.

First, the share is very illiquid and so it is not easy for market makers to turn tricks using this stock.

Second, the share does represent good long term value and as such will always attract long term holders. Their reluctance to sell adds to the illiquidity of the share.

I suggest that the lack of liquidity actually increases the chances of the share price being incorrect at any given point in time i.e a more liquid share would be more likely to follow say the XAU index because the market makers would be confident they can turn tricks (arbing, momentum trading, trapping margin/T+20 traders etc etc).

For the share price to move robustly there will definitely need to be some re-rating of the stock to provide a net buying bias. This could easily come about once the company starts paying a dividend and it therefore becomes a lot easier to value. Who knows what dividend the company will be able to pay? They will probably be cautious initially, but the reality is it could be substantial. Is it possible a gold miner, producing profits and paying a healthy dividend could lead to a re-rating of the share? Hope so...

JJ.

[holdontight] 13/10/2005 18:28

Have read the link and don't understand a word of it....can one of you more intellectual types explain please

[holdontight] 13/10/2005 18:04

why no rns?

[phillis] 13/10/2005 17:20

certainly seems that way

[budevenwiser] 13/10/2005 17:05

restructuring of the balance sheet allowing them to pay a dividend , could'nt pay one without doing it , so maybe a maiden dividend with the final results

[budevenwiser] 13/10/2005 16:38

hmm that should have brought the indicators down abit
could do with bizwell coming back
think kojak is taking the p--s , might be buying down here
regarding zeravshan
they have been processing low grade ore thru the plant as normal and averaging 10 500 to 11 000 ounces a quarter
they are now also processing low grade ore in the new heap leech dump and are hoping for around 3 000 ounces a quarter from that , ore already loaded on the pads but takes time
think we have just got caught up in selling across the board
this share sure does try your patience

[holdontight] 13/10/2005 16:33

JK8 where did you learn that?

[jk8] 13/10/2005 16:32

EGM called to get shareholder approval to reduce capital structure - i would have thought that was good news - opens the way for dividends at last.

[jk8] 13/10/2005 16:26

Is this a warning about some sort of corporate activity i wonder?

[yikyak] 13/10/2005 15:51

Flush em out I say............the stock needs to be in strong sticky hands before we can maintain a move forward.

Look on the bright side, at least Avocet reacted to cash gold this time around!

[mjcrockett] 13/10/2005 14:00

No wonder the price is falling so quickly with all you folks sellings. Kojak, please will you let us know when you have finished selling.

MJ

[andy] 13/10/2005 13:56

Kojak,

No, they are leaching the tailings, I believe.

I'm out for now, I have held patiently, and I can take a fall, and have held through others with AVM, but I don't like falls that steep!


Corrientes,

Don't forget I have 30 trading days to buy back and retain the CGT relief!

[corrientes] 13/10/2005 13:48

And waste all that CGT relief ?

[saucepan] 13/10/2005 13:14

At times like this, it may be instructive to look at the long-term uptrend in the three-year chart in the thread header.

A: This is very clear and strong.

B: It is in no way threatened at this stage.

C: On that evidence, disturbing as today's price movement might seem at first, and especially taking into account what is happening today in the wider market, the behaviour is probably just a normal oscillation and should not warrant panic: more a buying opportunity for those who prefer to add on the dips.

Of course, there may be something behind the scenes - but there is surely no evidence for this in the charts at this stage.

I suppose this is as good a day as any to get rid of weak holders. The share price behvaviour thereafter may be all the better for it.

[chipperfrd] 13/10/2005 12:54

Kojak,

I also think you are over reacting.

"Gold Bull over" - hardly, but we are due a decent retrace, so it is not surprising to see a fall on pog. If it drops to $427 it would still be within the secular bull channel.

As for AVM. It is always difficult to understand it's share price action.

The situation has been discussed many times on this bb so I will not attempt another rational explanation because the market is so often irrational anyway.

This stock is so thinly traded it will always be subject to wild swings.

Will I sell now - no.

Will I buy now - no.

For me it is a hold until a clear direction is indicated.

[trader horne] 13/10/2005 12:54

The whole mining and oil sectors got hammered this morning, even giants BLT and Shell down 4%. And the POG suddenly dropped 2$. There's no problem with AVM, just the leverage working against us instead of for us.

[dixi] 13/10/2005 12:41

Well in recent times I have had a habit of juggling between AVM and OXS - this has served me fairly well. AVM always seems quite sensitive to trades generally and is pretty thinly traded anyway. Maybe others do similar?

If kojak is selling best part of 100K shares this could be a self fulfilling prophecy from him.

AVM chart is covered in these drop backs. I have no reason to suspect 'foul play' right now. The price has moved up from the 70's recently, which still represents a good gain.

AVM has always seems a bit 'out of fashion' with most investors - hence not the volume happening to keep pushing price upwards rapidly.

[spooky] 13/10/2005 12:34

I find it very sad when i see these sort of posts on a bulletin board,i hope that people new to investing are not influenced and that they will make their own decisions based on their own research.

[holdontight] 13/10/2005 12:21

We will see, but I will be topping up if we hit 90p ish. Kojak, I am surprised by your change of sentiment.

[kojak78] 13/10/2005 12:17

Andy, you mentioned AVM stripping in the Jilau pit is not completed. Does that mean current production from Tajikistan is zero? That would mean production is 160000 for the year as Penjom produces 120 and North Lanut 40. Costs up, too. I guess interims will show *declining* production once again.

[kojak78] 13/10/2005 12:16

Right. AVM was higher at price of gold 430!! It hink it is a bad omen that even the xau failed to take out the nov highs when gold is up so much. Perhaps the gold bull market is over?

[corrientes] 13/10/2005 12:11

What's the old chestnut - if something's to good to be true..... I hope not as I've got a lot riding on this one. I know that there is absolutely no comparison with LGB but it doesn't help when so many tell you that AVM is the sale of the century for the market has 'known' this for a long time now and says otherwise. We need more proven reserves and dividends to make this one go. The comparison is not with when the price was about 10p, that's ancient history,it's the virtual non-movement in the price over the last year that should be equated with what has happened to the company over that period, taking into account the increase in the price of gold.

[kojak78] 13/10/2005 12:06

14000 sold, 82100 to come.