Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[biswell] 20/8/2005 22:34

Back to 75p for starters

B

[kickstart] 19/8/2005 14:18

Nice large purchase done through. mopped up some of those small sales over the last couple of days.

[bionicdog] 19/8/2005 07:58

You said that on August the 2nd.
The old broken clock is back , right on cue.

[biswell] 18/8/2005 18:29

Time to bail out methinks

B

[chipperfrd] 18/8/2005 15:24

There is a risk that the share price may (again) test the 72/73p level before picking up again.

I had rather hoped that we would break free of the 5-month channel and clear 86p this time but maybe not.

Still long, but closed two of my cfd positions - just in case!

[cleo1601] 18/8/2005 15:12

Ah well, it was good while it lasted...

[budevenwiser] 18/8/2005 12:42

lol now its behaving like it should

[kickstart] 18/8/2005 01:18

Most of yesterdays morning trades were sales ( or so it would appear ) and at lunchtime the stock moved up. Some one is buying in size I would guess.

[cleo1601] 17/8/2005 17:39

Hi Chip
I have fun but my fingernails complain... :)
Thanks for explaining re stops.
AVM was one of only 3 pieces of blue on my monitor most of today. i won't trade it anymore, just hold - anyway, compared to my oil shares, AVM's moves are glacial in their speed. But, one fine day... as they say.
Hope you continue to have fun while you make loadsadough

[corrientes] 17/8/2005 12:19

Give it a push up,please,Biswell.

[budevenwiser] 17/8/2005 12:01

this share is'nt behaving like it should do according to indicators , its overbought very good selling presure fri and mon especially fri , slow stochatics have crossed over so should be bearish but no down move
looks like there is a large buyer at the moment so we could see indicators at higher levels , large inverted head and shoulders now in play so could move very quickly to mid high 90s before some consolidation who knows could be some good news due and also as kojak keeps pointing out its so damm cheap

[saucepan] 17/8/2005 11:59

Agreed, this does look like a significant move on the chart.

[master rsi] 17/8/2005 11:52

up at both sides as the charts signaling the 100p
just ready for a new BREAKOUT

[chipperfrd] 16/8/2005 00:15

kojak,

Very interesting post (806) - as usual!

[cleo1601] 15/8/2005 17:29

Hi chip
I have a CFD account with IG. Last time i asked they didn't do straightforward trading. i'm too chicken for SBs. It seems stop losses are more usual with SBs & CFDs. I think Comdirect will set stops but have found their prices quite poor.

Anyway, a good day on OXS helps sugar the slight pull-back here.

Happy trading yourself, although happy is not the first word that comes to mind to describe my usual nerve-wracked, doubt-riddled activities!

[kojak78] 15/8/2005 11:18

Jeff Kern states we have one of the best ski signals possible and should go up at least 7 months. He expects at least 100%+ upside.

I don't know were this should bring the markets, but I guess we'll see not that much upside in the XAU. Placer Dome, Anglogold and Barrick each have ca. 10 mio oz in hedges, that means they'll have 1 billion additional hedge book losses. Perhaps the most affected will be Placer as the hedge book is the largest compared to the market cap. Nonetheless all XAU stocks will climb.

I'd really like to buy Gold Fields, I don't see that much downside in South Africa. Unfortunately they'll have to give up a much higher percentage of their assets.. just not possible to buy into that. A *very* useful guide for South African reserve valuation is not to take into consideration discounts or something, but just to divide the reserves by 3 and value them like any other gold reserves. Why you'll ask? They have way higher taxes in South Africa. They have longer mine lifes. And they have higher costs / more capex / black empowerment. Long mine lifes are good for a company, but *bad* for reserve valuation. Obvious: if you can extract 1 mio in 5 years or 1 mio oz in 15 years, the mine where you can get the 1 mio oz in 5 years is worth more because it is less uncertain if you get the whole reserves. 15 years could mean expropriation 11 years down the road..
So even Gold Fields has only "adjusted" reserves of 38 mio oz which means US$152/oz. Harmony even is valued at US$310/oz "adjusted" reserves..

IMO the best stocks in the XAU miners based on valuation are Barrick and Agnico Eagle. Though perhaps one should stay away from Agnico because of the high Zinc dependability. Newmont is the stock which one should still buy based on ability of the stake holders. Pierre Lassonde is a genius and they have the best exploration teams in the world.

Very intersting small caps are Oceana and Semafo. Don't like Oceana that much because they have somewaht high cash costs. But based on market cap per production they're the only stock that can rival Avocet. Semafo is a very interesting West African miner, most assets are in Niger and Burkina Faso. Seems to have French roots, low cash costs, low valuation.

But the best still remains Avocet. Competent management, low cash costs, exploration and mine building capabilities, very low valuation. Assuming Taror/Chore feasibility as a precondition Avocet will catch on to other miners in the next 2 years. We'll have average valuations of US$300/oz then which would catapult Avocet to US$720 mio(assuming 1.4 mio jorc reserves + 1mio Taror reserves) or even US$1160 mio(assuming 1.8 mio + 2 mio Taror/Chore "scheduled for preduction" reserves). Translates into a stock price of US$6.55 to 10.55 in the very next two years. So just sit tight and don't sell at 100p...

[zaky] 15/8/2005 10:44

chocs away....hold onto your hat....fire up the air conditioner.....chocy choc choc....fish fingers at the ready....

[chipperfrd] 14/8/2005 23:16

Hi Cleo,

I use IG Markets.

You did well on BUR. I closed at 716 (:(), but I had reached my target so cannot complain. Also VPC at 431. Will look to re-enter if there is a pullback. Likewise CNE.

Re OXS and AVM - well, I think you know I am pretty bullish. I expect we will both do really well in the next few months.

Happy trading.

[cleo1601] 14/8/2005 11:31

Chip & Andy
thanks for info. I hardly use my CFD account, where stops are possible, and my broker doesn't offer the facility. time to change perhaps?

Chip, I also closed my BUR too early (803) but felt quite a bit better when it went back to the 760s on Friday! This is as close as I've ever got to "calling it right". Fingers crossed that sticking the money into RPT, VPC, AVM & OXS will turn out to be a smart move(s) - looks like I really, really, got it wrong closing DNX at 747 though. I second that doh of yours ... still, mustn't complain too much since I'm finally in the blue on AVM

[ben gunn] 12/8/2005 11:46

Break-out at 11 o'clock.....chocks away chaps>>>>>>>>>

[andy] 12/8/2005 11:44

Saucepan,

It certainly is!

[wolstencroft] 12/8/2005 11:39

junior MMs (bosses probably on holiday) have woken up finally....