Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 11/8/2005 12:42

Cleo,

Yes, into GFM 'big time' and very happy to be so. Core of shares + trading cfd's.

Still adding OXS. Convinced it will come good eventually.

Into AVM for a long while. Have been trading (long) the range via cfd's. However, I may stay holding everything this time as I feel we are due a return of confidence, and buying, in this sector.

Also, about 20 other mining and oil stocks. All long at the moment but waiting to short a few high beta large caps once the market turns.

Good luck with your holdings. You did really well on the HNR pullback - respect!!

[cleo1601] 11/8/2005 12:32

Hi chip
I finally cut my OXS losses at 41.5 - and just stopped looking it was soooooo painful (bought at 57 just before the crash, then averaged down... enough said?). Let's hope AVM helps compensate us and all the others in both. Are you in Griffin? seems at long, long last to have come to terms with being above 38p!! but only just.

[chipperfrd] 11/8/2005 09:35

Yes it is a bit quiet Cleo. Kojak is doing all the heavy lifting here!

Gold is going well at the moment, the US pm market is responding but on this side of the Atlantic we still appear to have very poor sentiment for pm shares.

Hopefully, this will change soon.

At least AVM is creeping slowly north - I wish OXS would do the same.

[cleo1601] 10/8/2005 23:26

Quiet in here! interesting 150k trade? i'll creep out quietly and turn out the light...

[saucepan] 10/8/2005 01:11

kojak78: thanks, as always, for you interesting and informative posts - keep them coming.

[kojak78] 09/8/2005 12:23

My scenario for 18 to 24 months down the line:
XAU 240, Gold 850, Avocet 460p

I guess by then new production is onstream (380,000 oz), cash costs have been lowered to 220 (increasing again up to 270 because of higher royalties).
p/e 6.5 vs. p/e 16 for the average miner.

[jk8] 09/8/2005 10:57

It will be interesting to see if the share price follows the pattern of last year - if it does then it's about to go North, but if it doesn't at least the downside would appear very limited.

[kojak78] 09/8/2005 09:36

i would not wait for an up day.. the ski system is a system. either you follow it or you don't. if he buys at 102% instead of 100% and userx goes up 150% the system has generated 150% while he has gained only 145%. so buy now with a 5% stop loss will outperform the wait-for-an-up-day method. just my 2 cents.

[budevenwiser] 09/8/2005 09:08

there you are jk8

[jk8] 09/8/2005 09:03

what up day would this be then?

[budevenwiser] 09/8/2005 08:36

he's now waiting for the first up day in stocks before buying

[jk8] 09/8/2005 08:23

Buying signal generated - an almost guarantee that the share price for AVM will go down, but hey ho, i'm looking to buy some more!

[kojak78] 08/8/2005 21:45

The signal has been generated and is in place. Tomorrow is the first buying day of the new bull market in gold stocks. We are only at the beginning..

"Simple translation of this Update: Buy gold stocks on Tuesday's close IF prices don't plunge 6% on Monday. Then sell on a 92-96 index sell or at a 100%+ profit. The maximum risk is a large 20% until 5 months after the buy day."

100% with the gold stocks and over 500% with Avocet in the next 18 to 24 months.

Good luck!

[kojak78] 08/8/2005 13:16

Yeah, one month..

NUM wants 10 to 12% more, companies offer 4 to 5%, I don't think that will last that long. And it would be only 30t, some central bank will come up with that amount.

I even if, why should a few percentage rise in the gold price mean more to Avocet than the 200 to 400% upside potential because of undervaluation?

[doobydave] 08/8/2005 10:45

It depends almost entirely upon how long the strike lasts. RSA production amounts to 10-15% of global annual physical gold production. If the strike lasts a couple of days, it will have no effect. If it's a month or more, it could make a difference.

The only rider is that anticipation of significant threat sometimes causes movement in advance of actuality.
DD

[kojak78] 08/8/2005 10:21

The strike is meaningless for the price of gold, only 1t per day loss, means no big deal to the physical market.

[mr ashley james] 08/8/2005 08:32

Dave,

It is pure common sense, at the moment with RSA Miners Strike the great majority of the RSA Gold production of 342 Metric Tonnes per annum, 342,000,000 grammes, 10,995,547 troy ounces per annum is not being produced probably.

So which way can the Gold Price Go leading up to the Indian Wedding Season demand?

No Supply exponentially increasing demand?

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[doobydave] 07/8/2005 22:09

Hi Ashley,

Thanks for the article. It would be nice to think it would 'send AVM's share price into orbit next week' - I wouldn't be complaining(!) - but I suspect the South African strike would need to translate into a steep hike in the gold price first.

Mind you, the graph is looking more encouraging than it has for some time though we may have another month or so of sideways trading before a decent upward leg. Just IMO as a non-chartist. How do you read it?
DD

[mr ashley james] 07/8/2005 21:33

Doobie Dave,

Think this could send AVM's shareprice into orbit next week.

South Africa hit by massive gold mining strike
JOHANNESBURG (AFX) - South Africa's leading mining union hit the world's top
gold producer with its largest strike in 18 years as workers walked off job.
The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), with some 80,000 members in the
gold mining sector, started a national strike at 6:00 pm (1600 GMT) after it
declared a wage dispute with employers last week.
"We are on strike," NUM spokesman Moferefere Lekorotsoana told Agence
France-Presse, after miners had earlier rejected an offer of a five percent pay
hike, which fell below the eight and 12 percent rise they were seeking.
Chamber of Mines chief negotiator Frans Barker, who represents the
employers, confirmed that the mass action went ahead despite attempts to reach a
last-minute settlement.
"Unfortunately, the strike is going ahead," Barker said.
"There has been discussions ... (but) NUM has not responded to that except
to say they will report to their members and give feedback tomorrow (Monday).
"It is very important that one should find a settlement and stop the
strike," he added.
Lekorotsoana said the latest offers had yet to be put before union members.
"Most likely it will happen tomorrow."
The smaller, mainly white Solidarity union, which has about 10,000 members,
will join NUM in the protest beginning Monday.
Barker said the different gold mining employers had made new offers, details
of which he did not want to disclose, during informal talks at the weekend.
A third trade union, the United Association of South Africa, with a 16,000
membership, will decide Monday whether it will participate in the strike.
Johannesburg-based T-sec brokerage mining analyst Nick Goodwin has said the
strike would have a "serious impact on an industry that's already on its knees."
"At the moment the rand has weakened and the gold price has picked up by
some seven percent, so mines are just breaking even, but there are no profits,"
he earlier told AFP.
Miners earn a minimum monthly wage of 2,200 rand (338 US dollars, 277 euros)
in South Africa.
The country is the world's largest gold producer, despite a nine percent
decline in output in 2004, yielding a total of 342 tonnes, according to the
Chamber of Mines.
A cornerstone of the South African economy, gold mines have felt the pinch
of a stronger currency, foreign exchange controls and a depletion of resources,
prompting fears of large-scale job losses in the industry.
Its share of world gold production now stands at around 14 percent, down
from 80 percent in 1970.
fgb/rl/ec


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[kojak78] 06/8/2005 10:09

userx 8.14, no true bull signal generated. if userx closes above 7.65 (very likely, a 5.9% drop would still generate it) the next trading day we will get the signal.

that will be the beginning of the true gold stock bull!

[tobie_1] 05/8/2005 09:42

MR B sounds desperate. He must be worried about a half decent quaterly production update, due next week(just assuming as the last was the 6/5/05).

[bionicdog] 05/8/2005 09:21

I was being sarcastic mate.

[phillis] 05/8/2005 09:07

Rising on not very much volume.
MMs not sitting on a lot of stock

[wolstencroft] 05/8/2005 08:55

bionicdog: ?????

[bionicdog] 05/8/2005 08:28

POG taking a hammering , just as bis predicted. I'm going to satrt listening to the cat again.