Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[kojak78] 03/8/2005 09:22

Not solvent, irrational longer than you can stay sane perhaps.

I havent't done anything on Oxus lately, but they can't rival Avocet in value for money I guess as Oxus has a far more higher market cap and production of last year wasn't higher than Avocet.
As far as I see it Oxus is a low cost producer with some license problems.

I got 1 to 2 months more time with Avocet if it isn't higher then I'll go into it with margin which I don't use under normal circumstances. Would be another 100000 shares.

[biswell] 03/8/2005 09:04

I said last year OXS would fall to 40p when it was 85p

Uzbekistan is a politican nightmare of a country to operate in.

Which is why OXS are now looking to get out and operate in another country

Tajikistan where AVM pin their hopes of increased production is even worse

In this country it costs more to mine the gold than it is worth at $432 an oz

Note gold production fell last year by 7,000 ox, so AVM have no chance in my opinion of hitting 300,000 by 2006

B

[chipperfrd] 03/8/2005 08:58

Thanks kojak, these comparisons are very interesting.

Have you run your ruler over OXS as a LSE peer?

I picked up another tranche at 72.5 yesterday but am surprised that we have not bottomed out yet.

They do say that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!

[budevenwiser] 03/8/2005 08:53

if its any use found out yesterday that one of the mm's have a large buyer around the 70p mark and are happy to buy around that level so the mm could be holding them back to fill that did'nt make me feel any better but what the hell

[kojak78] 03/8/2005 08:43

Yes, someone must do something really stupid. I mean, what else could one buy with the money? There is not one single mining stock which offers better value for the price.

Yesterday I took a look at Gammon lake. Fully diluted 84 mio shares. Average price to cash flow for intermediate producers is 13.4, Gammon Lake assumed 450 gold price - 152 cash costs, multiplied by 0.3 mio oz production, minus overhead. price to cash flow 6..
Since the mine is going into production in 2006 we won't see the full production before financial 2007. The same as with Avocet.
If all stays on track Avocet will produce 265000 oz in 2007 from existing mines and cash costs will decline to US$225, that gives you a price to cash flow ratio of 2.45 for 2007.
Gammon Lake reserves are 2.26 mio oz gold equivalent, at 84 mio shares fully diluted and the recent US$7.34/share that gives you US$272/reserve oz.

Remember, that is for a mine not even in production.

The following is the reserve valuation of Avocet in comparison:
1. 1.4 mio oz jorc standard reserves: 100
2. 1.8 mio oz reserves: 78
3. 2.4 mio oz jorc standard reserves with Taror: 58
4. 2.9 mio oz jorc standard reserves with Taror/Chore: 48
5. 4 mio oz reserves with Taror/Chore + recent exploration success at existing mines (130000 oz over 16 years for Taror/Chore): 35

So worst case scenario 195p, best case scenario 559p compared to Gammon Lake.

[biswell] 02/8/2005 18:49

AVM macd turning down , RSI still can go below 20 as before....the share is doing very badly as gold now stands at circa $430 compaired to last year

why....cos folks are not happy with it's prospects

Tajikstan is losing money even at these gold levels


biswell - 22 Jun'05 - 15:23 - 5146 of 5166 edit


AVM now starts the drop to below 70p

GOLD to lose $50 means price target for AVM is now 52p

B

[jk8] 02/8/2005 15:32

I'd love to know just what's driving the share price POG is OK, future prospects look very good but still someone wants to get out.

[cleo1601] 01/8/2005 23:08

Hi chip
Agreed. I've actually become a bit worried at the huge emphasis on oils in my PF and forced myself to increase my position here because of it. Looking at some of the heady heights of my oil shares, it seems hardly worth bothering with any others - but what a worry if there is a sudden drop in the price of oil! Nerve-wracking business, eh?

[chipperfrd] 01/8/2005 17:42

Hi Cleo, I also topped up with another cfd at 74p today.

I'm pretty sure it will trend back up to resistance again soon. Action of gold/silver at the moment also re-inforces my view.

Having spent last few days being fairly active on oil shares the pm miners feel like a bit of a backwater but their time must surely come soon :)

[cleo1601] 01/8/2005 16:39

p.s.
perhaps that large T sell being cleared will allow this to improve?

[cleo1601] 01/8/2005 16:38

got another 10k at 74p. when i placed the order, it was accepted at 73.74, then rejected. The broker rang and 74 was the best he could get. Then it looked like it would have a bit of a run, but it sort of fizzled out. hope for better later in the week!

[budevenwiser] 01/8/2005 14:27

very oversold now and insanely cheap , cant believe they have fallen so far .
a nice 10p rise from here will give us a nice inverted head and shoulders

[biswell] 01/8/2005 14:15

The passing of the King in Saudi Arabia has caused oil and gold to spike a bit

Don't expect it too last though

B

[phillis] 01/8/2005 12:08

Agree DD -no original input at all

[wolstencroft] 01/8/2005 11:05

ok, I rephrase: write-up on mineweb - nice to have one.

As you say its better than nothing

[doobydave] 01/8/2005 10:55

Personally I don't think it's a nice write-up at all. Perhaps I'm being curmudgeonly, but I thought it was a stale and unimaginative regurgitation of the prelim financials, 3 weeks after the fact. Not a single speculation or quote from management thrown in to whet the appetite or raise an eyebrow. Most readers would have been hard put to finish the article before they succumbed to the alternative fascinations of cutting their toenails or a sudden, overwhelming desire for some shut-eye. Strewth - even I struggled to finish it!

Still, any publicity is an improvement so I guess I should be grateful :-)
DD

[goml] 01/8/2005 07:28

Wolst, thanks, nice write-up as you say. Shame they don't offer comments by way of peer-group comparisons.

[biswell] 31/7/2005 22:31

AVM macd turning down , RSI still can go below 20 as before....the share is doing very badly as gold now stands at circa $430 compaired to last year

why....cos folks are not happy with it's prospects

Tajikstan is losing money even at these gold levels


biswell - 22 Jun'05 - 15:23 - 5146 of 5166 edit


AVM now starts the drop to below 70p

GOLD to lose $50 means price target for AVM is now 52p

B

[wolstencroft] 31/7/2005 20:25

nice write up on mineweb

[phillis] 31/7/2005 12:49

One of my original points was that Co Secs know the nominees for the big retail
on-line brokers. Can't see why they bother with 212s to ascertain whether Jon Smith in Wigan is a registered holder. Complete waste of time

[andy] 30/7/2005 18:17

jmobrien,

Thanks for the heads up, i'd love to know why they are doing this on such a regular basis.

[goml] 30/7/2005 16:14

Gents, I think chinese whispers is taking hold. I personally don't support the shorting theory. However, it is interesting that they've regularly issued 212's.