Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[biswell] 27/5/2005 12:11

Ha Ha

Well Biswell called AVM to 72p a couple of months back.....and he is calling less than 70p now.

Re GOLD I have posted that the trickle back would not go above $420, and the expected fight back in oil would not last.

Oil to fall below $40 pretty soon now.

B

[kojak78] 26/5/2005 18:44

Today added more shares the first time since mid last year. 74.5p, highest price paid ever..

Avocet is about one single question: what about valuation of short-life ore reserves? My opinion: short-life gold reserves are worth *more* than long-life. Why? Imagine two mines of 1 mio oz reserves. One produces 100,000 oz and has a life of 10 years. The other produces 333,333 oz and has a life of 3 years. What mine is worth more? Of course the 3 year life mine as I get the gold sooner and does not have to wait 7 years longer.. thena again, shorter life mines have the tendency to prove up more reserves so that the life is longer than in every forecast. IMO a mine's production with 1/2 the life is worth 2/3 of the longer life mine's production.

That gives us US$1500/oz compared to US$2300/oz currently paid for Newmont's production. If the taror and Chore feasibility studies work out we'll have 430,000 oz in production, valued at ca. US$300/oz. Avocet should quintuple compared to others. With gold at fair value at 2500 and XAU fair value at the end of this bull market of 800 (all in today's US$), Avocet should cost 40x the current share price at the ultimate gold bull market high. Yes, 3000p.

[bionicdog] 26/5/2005 17:08

i also worry about people who refer to themselves in the third person.
eg "biswell said that this would go down".
"biswell is off to the toilet now". etc etc

[hectorp] 25/5/2005 15:26

'notional 20% revaluation of the remnimbi? The Chinese MIGHT revalue to 6.5 precent. The revaluation will be a token thing.

[sandoval] 25/5/2005 15:00

I ate mine when it went below $420

[trader horne] 25/5/2005 12:55

I vaguely recall from last year the cut in production was due to repair/replacement of some machinery, long-term this doesn't bother me in the slightest. If gold falls back below $400 I will eat my hat.

[biswell] 25/5/2005 07:48

A lower Euro over the next 12 months and lower oil price, is what I said on VIEW a few months back.

Both will point to higher $ and lower GOLD price.....which I have said will fall to $350 at some point in 2005.

I now expect AVM directors to buy the stock to try to stop it falling through the 70p level and forming the new low it wants to make.

Let's see if they do......


From www.FT.com

OECD calls for rates cut in eurozone
Pressure mounted on the European Central Bank to boost demand after the the OECD urged it to act immediately 'by significantly cutting policy rates'. 22:33 | Read

OECD sees slow decline in oil price

B

[isa23] 24/5/2005 18:02

If the co's chairman has bought so many shares @ 92.1p only a few months back, we lesser mortals can rest assured we are not overpaying at current prices. The shorters will have their day, but long term holders will be the ultimate winners (IMHO)
Avocet Mining PLC
24 January 2005

Avocet Mining plc (the 'Company')

Director shareholding

The Company was informed today that Nigel McNair Scott, the Company's chairman,
has today acquired 230,000 ordinary shares at a price of 92.1p. This brings Mr
McNair Scott's total shareholding to 5,755,000 ordinary shares, representing
5.55 per cent of the issued share capital of the Company.

[bionicdog] 24/5/2005 17:52

i see that bis is still going mental on the other thread talking to himself.
i wonder what breakfast is like in the biswell house.
bis - i said it would be sunny today dear , i was right again.
mrs bis - you said that a week ago dear and it rained every day until today.
bis - yes , i was right again.

[biswell] 24/5/2005 17:45

Investors Chronicle who said buy this stock the other week ( also said buy Jarvis a couple of months ago ) said that a dividend of around 0.5p might be paid next year.

That was assuming a stable gold price of course....and the dollar now recovering.

Investors holding this share for a dividend payout .....dream on

B

[biswell] 24/5/2005 17:27

Cos I told the truth is why.

This company said it would produce 300,000 oz by 2005

Last year production FELL by 7,000 oz

The company says it will produce 300,000 oz by 2006

I say....when will they change that to 2007 ?

B

[isa23] 24/5/2005 13:11

could'nt resist the price. Just topped up @ 74.63

[kojak78] 24/5/2005 12:31

Hmm, today Avocet reached a new low in US$ terms. Market cap US$ 141.5 mio fully diluted..

72p translates into 69p translated for currency losses of the pound. Last low was 71.

Now that DRDGold has risen so much Avocet is the cheapest producer on the world :-)

[chipperfrd] 24/5/2005 09:44

bud

I think he just likes to add to the fear and worry that is prevalent at the bottom of cycles - which, of course, is precisely when there are great buying opportunities.

He does therefore provide a reliable contrarian indicator!

[yikyak] 24/5/2005 09:22

"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism........I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."

Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929

[budevenwiser] 24/5/2005 09:17

i wonder if biswell has timed his reapearance just at the right time again ,dollar overbought , gold and gold stocks oversold , he's managed it the last two times , uncanny
would have more respect for him if he came with his predictions at the top of a cycle

[biswell] 24/5/2005 05:20

Alan Greenspan said on Friday in response to a question at the Economic Club of New York that a notional 20 per revaluation of the renminbi would have little impact on the US trade balance.

[budevenwiser] 23/5/2005 10:36

biswell
i'd like to thank you if thats any good
just reread all those articles you posted and it has just shown me how far avm has come in such a short time
now debt free
reducing the hedge position every month
money in the bank
in six months time we will see zeravshan production start to ramp up
even if zeravshan continues at 10 000 a month avm will acheive 240 000 ounces this year but will do much better when zeravshan starts to perform better
will admit costs at the moment are thru the roof at zeravshan with massive amounts of stripping and having to use low grade stockpile but costs will drop dramatically with higher grades also avm have found they can treat the ore by just heap leech treatment and do not need to crush the rock so no neeed for expensive steel balls and less energy costs
as regards the 300 000 ounces production john catchpole told me they will reach that by end of third quarter beginning 4th quarter end of 2005 so where's your problem with that they are still on target , avm have always been conservative in their projections and have never blue skied any part of their operations
do you honestly think avm is expensive at these levels ?

[shirishg] 23/5/2005 10:14

Post removed by ADVFN

[shirishg] 23/5/2005 10:14

Post removed by ADVFN

[biswell] 23/5/2005 09:49

Mr Bud was not the only one to call me a liar or worse...let us see if he appologizes

B

[biswell] 23/5/2005 09:41

They were still saying 300,000 oz production in June 2003



Date : June 13, 2003


Avocet Mining Clears Another Hurdle In Race To Annual Production Of 300,000 Ounces Of Gold.


Avocet Mining is an eccentric little company. Following a near death experience a couple of years ago the company had a busy time last year after it stepped down from a full listing in London to the AIM market to accelerate its deal making ability. It then acquired Nelson Gold's gold interests in Tajikistan, which included the Zeravshan mine, and also bought an 80 per cent interest in a 460 sq mile exploration property from Newmont Mining on North Sulawesi in Indonesia. As a sign of confidence that it was now on the right track the chairman of Avocet, Nigel McNair Scott then set his company a target of achieving annual production of 300,000 ounces of gold/annum in 2005.

What it also got shortly after the Indonesian deal was Peter Flindell who had been in charge of Newmont's operations in S.E.Asia. This was quite a coup as he knew the property and brought with him a wide knowledge of several other projects in the region. Newmont had identified 37 gold occurrences on the property itself, but Avocet decided to concentrate on two for starters - Riska and Effendi. These were adjacent deposits in an area known as North Lanut where exploration drilling by Newmont had identified a mineral inventory of 800,000 ozs.

In what seems like no time at all a positive and bankable feasibility study has been completed on the North Lanut project which will cost only US$11 million to bring into production, including contingencies. With an average gold recovery rate of 73 per cent from a heap leach operation the mine is expected to produce about 50,000 ozs. of gold per year for five years. This mine life will be extended and production should rise as the resource identified by Newmont at Effendi has yet to be upgraded to reserves by drilling and was not included in the study. At a gold price of US$350/oz., and given total cash operating costs that average US$188/oz., pre-tax financial results show a net present value of US$15 million at a discount rate of 10 per cent/annum and an internal rate of return of 45 per cent.

A construction and mine management team is being assembled and Avocet is applying for all the permits necessary to construct and operate the mine. At the same time discussions have started with various parties on a financial package to fund construction and working capital requirements. If all goes to plan it should be operating by the end of 2004 and this will bring annual production for the company up to around 220,000 ounces given that the Penjom mine in Malaysia and Zeravshan continue at their present rates.

The difference this time around is that Avocet has money in the kitty to spend on exploration and an expert in Peter Swindell to use it to maximum effect. Obviously there is plenty of potential in North Sulawesi with another 35 gold occurrences to be investigated and Penjom has been starved of exploration for some time. Now drilling is going on to the north and south of the main pit in order to bring in more reserves and extend the mine life and US$1 million is to be spent on investigating the underground potential. The good news there is that the strip ratio is reducing significantly and costs are now approaching the US$200/oz level.

The wild card is Zeravshan. Jonathan Henry, Avocet's finance director, admits that it has taken longer than expected to improve productivity and reduce costs, but can now see a move in the right direction. Nelson's gold assets, however, are not confined to one mine as the exploration properties cover around 3,000 sq kms in the north of Tajikistan where past Soviet exploration has identified over 8 million ounces of gold in a number of deposits including the Jilau deposit where Zeravshan operates its open pit. This mine is producing at a rate of around 70,000 ounces at cash operating costs approaching US$280/oz of has been run by Nelson since 1996 and last year it produced 80,000 ounces of gold at a cash operating costs of US$218/oz. Production is expected to continue at this sort of level from an underground operation currently being developed and from two open pit operations on recently discovered deposits nearby.

It is the exploration potential in Tajikistan that really catches the eye and an additional open pit mine would certainly move Avocet towards its target. This could just about be achieved by organic growth, but the company may also have a deal in Malaysia up its sleeve. The difference between this Avocet and the Avocet of a couple of years ago could not be more pronounced and the annual results due late in July should make interesting reading.