Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[hgiderek] 22/4/2005 07:31

Thanks mieke / goml, I'm on the research trail.

[andy] 21/4/2005 09:17

mieke / goml,

Funnily enough i've been looking at both of those myself! (I hold a few MTL already)

And am going to top up here again when funds allow.

[goml] 21/4/2005 09:11

hg,
have a look at MTL. peer group comparison of microcap explorers should show you they are capitalised at the low end. but definately still high risk like most minnow explorers.

[mieke] 21/4/2005 07:48

You might take a look at Vane Meinerals (VML) which are just about to start their first gold mine and have the added attraction of U investments.

[hgiderek] 21/4/2005 07:41

Having popped out of AVM earlier this year, before the drop (luck not prescience) I am now keen to buy in before the next rise. Since the next mini-trough in the 'secualr bear' market seems imminent, about now seems to be the time. Am watching the Kitco price closely.
Has anyone any other gold investment favourites for 'small' investors - companies or otherwise ?

[goml] 21/4/2005 07:18

yikyak, point taken.
there was certainly a lot of sense in the article. so far there doesn't seem to be any rhetoric from central bankers in the west that a gold ratio is on the cards. or have i missed something?

[yikyak] 20/4/2005 21:25

goml, it's said that the further you look back in time the further you can see into the future, pinning it down to a certain timeframe however is another matter as markets and politicians and central bankers are a law upon themselves. We live in a climate where politicians are more than happy to leave the tough decisions to the next guy and so the problem grows through their inability to make tough decisions at the time. Stephen Byres and the Rover group is probably the most recent example. Imagine a similar situation but with UK PLC.

Sometimes politicians lie, sometimes they really don't see the wood for the trees. As for the timing it's often brought about by unexpected events. The 1929 collapse for example was triggered by an Austrian bank failing, given the period Austria must have seemed a million miles away from the US yet the dominos fell and over 2000 banks failed within the US in the following five year period.

[goml] 20/4/2005 20:37

yikyak, i just read the article your final link takes you to. the timelines they talk about have passed without the seismic event referred to. interesting nonetheless.

[yikyak] 20/4/2005 18:52

What I see happening in the markets is a lack of confidence in all three of the only available liquid currencies being the US dollar, Jap Yen and the Euro. In the past money could flow out of one and into another but at the moment they are faced with nowhere to go. The South Korean announcement only highlighted this when the indicated they wanted to unload a few dollars and were forced to retract their statement the day after to calm markets.

So where would you put your life savings at the moment for safe harbour?

[ ]US Dollar

[ ]Japanese Yen

[ ]Euro

[ ]None of the above

If you checked 'none of the above' then by default you are a goldbug because no other realistic option exists................most people would do the same, it's just they haven't realised another option exists but they will in time, once they get a whiff of inflation in the pipeline. Goverments however will always deny inflation as they know that union wage claims are based on the figure and that can only add to the problem.

ps: found something else on Rothschild situation ;

[andy] 20/4/2005 13:19

Yikyak,

Very interesting, many thanks.

[yikyak] 20/4/2005 13:16

Sunday, April 18 - 2004 at 08:48

'NM Rothschild has exited the gold market after more than 200 years of trading. The firm is withdrawing from twice daily gold fixing in London which it chairs. Analysts said the move said more about the internal condition of the bank rather than gold, others were not so sure'.



>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Assuming old money is correct and does whatever it can to avoid damaging the family names you have to then consider:

Could it be that the Rothschilds through their past involvement in daily London gold trades were recently quietly amasing more of the precious metals in their private vaults, while the confidence game of the Central Banks tried desperately to avoid what Soros calls "unsustainable" fiat currency built on unsustainable debt?

Afterall, It was Mayer Amschel Rothschild who kept a secret subterranean vault full of gold beneath the House of Rothschild in Frankfurt in the 1770's and I believe they know full well that a default is on the cards.

Every old banking family (Hambro's, Baring's, Flemmings etc) I can think of is heavely involved in the gold market and for very good reason. The Rothschild's withdrawl from the LMBA was no doubt to avoid getting drawn into a witch-hunt when it finaly hits the fan in my opinion.

[andy] 20/4/2005 11:37

yikyak,

Can you briefly explain (or post a link) for this comment please?


"No wonder the Rothchild's pulled the plug and made for a speedy exit."

[dixi] 19/4/2005 15:22

Yeah, but it's a nice doggie though!!!

[sparky01] 19/4/2005 15:12

Dog of the week again !

[jk8] 19/4/2005 08:19

Some details on exploration would also be good....

[mieke] 19/4/2005 07:17

Yes that may be the case - however I'm more interested in seeing what N.Lanut is doing......

[goml] 19/4/2005 06:51

I think we should be prepared for Q4 prod results to be slightly disappointing actually. I suspect Tajik mine continues to underperform.

[brad1] 18/4/2005 23:51

Q4 at end of the month should be interesting.

[yikyak] 15/4/2005 09:50

Central to the thesis that the gold price will continue to rise on the back of a falling US dollar, is the premise that China will forego its policy of supporting the dollar in favor of letting its own currency, the renminbi, appreciate. Both China and Japan are accumulating massive amounts of dollars as a result of their trade surpluses with the United States. But instead of selling those trade dollars into the foreign exchange markets, they, and other countries, are hoarding the dollars and investing them in US Treasury securities. As a result the US dollar is currently trading at a much higher exchange rate than it should versus the renminbi, the yen, other Southeast Asian currencies and, in fact, most currencies.

Many people have argued that China will not allow the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar because it needs US consumption to drive its fledgling economy. But pressure is mounting from Europe, the United States, the World Bank and the IMF for China to let its currency appreciate.

The contention is that Chinese exports have an unfair advantage in the world because the renminbi is undervalued in foreign exchange markets. The undervaluation is a direct result of China's dollar-hoarding policy, since it keeps the trade dollars that China receives every day off the market.

Support is growing in the US Senate for taking tariff action against China. The US trade deficit with China totaled $29.12 billion for only January and February of this year. That is a fifty percent increase from last year. The US trade deficit with China is now the largest of any country and almost double the size of the trade deficit with Japan, which is second.

The appointment of a new US trade representative is being blocked until Senate leaders vote on anti-subsidy laws against non-market economies such as China. In addition, a wide coalition of senators is backing legislation to impose a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese products entering the US if Beijing does not agree to raise the value of its currency.

If China does not allow its currency to appreciate against the dollar, and if the US goes ahead and implements the tariffs, all Chinese goods will become 27.5% more expensive for US consumers. On the other hand, if China allows its currency to appreciate, let's say by the same amount, 27.5%, then its goods would be no more expensive to US consumers than if tariffs were imposed. However, the cost of all China's imports would fall by 21.6% if it allowed its currency to appreciate by 27.5%. So what do you think China is more likely to do? Give the US government a revenue stream equal to 27.5% of the value of all Chinese imports to the US, or reduce the cost of its own imports by 21.6%?

The Chinese have always struck me as intelligent and practical. I suspect that China is going to let its currency appreciate. This not only means that the US dollar is going to fall, it also implies that US interest rates are going to rise because if the Chinese (and Japanese) no longer have to keep their trade dollars off the market to prevent the US dollar from falling they will also not need to buy as many US Treasuries as they have in the past.

It's all starting to come together. The next big upward move in the gold price will occur when China and Japan allow their currencies to appreciate and the dollar to fall. I have no idea whether it will be this year, or next, but I do believe the current decline in gold and gold related equities represents an opportunity.

I'll be speaking at next month's investment conference in New York. Visit my website www.paulvaneeden.com for details.

Paul van Eeden

[zaky] 13/4/2005 19:55

richgit - go fu*k margaret thatcher!

[andy] 12/4/2005 19:00

yikyak,

Interesting!