Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[theberg] 05/4/2005 07:13

LOL as if!

Jonathan Hurray Henry or Real Name Tim Nice But DIM?

[taylor20] 05/4/2005 07:13

You could be right, John Henry is the second coming, and he's going to lead all the shareholders to the promised land!

[goml] 05/4/2005 07:11

taylor20, confucius he say: never try to comprehend the incomprehensible

Meike, you've just spoiled a lifelong belief that the H stood for Harry!

[theberg] 05/4/2005 03:42

Mieke,

Never Blaspheme

Berg

[theberg] 05/4/2005 03:36

Re Johnathan Henry-So What he has sold his shares to the Chairman?

[kojak78] 05/4/2005 01:10

I guess 53000 oz

Penjom produces 135000 at full capacity but recently got somewhat weak and down to 120000, yet stockpiling, upgraded etc. (so in the future I guess even 150000 could be possible), Tajikistan 46000 without investments somewhat understated. Means 135000 + 46000 is a reasonable figure.

Riska should be at least at half capacity, so 30000 oz.

Gives 53000 oz. Maybe Riska will surprise to the upside and Tajikistan to the downside.

[richgit] 04/4/2005 23:50

The underpinning catalyst will be 4th quarter production figures.

[mieke] 04/4/2005 23:14

Yes JH is generally a good bloke when it comes to this sort of thing. I am confident this is a brief interlude and will be trying to time a purchase.

[andy] 04/4/2005 23:10

Mieke,

Yes, he was relaxed and happy to talk.

We may see quite a rebound once the seller is out of the way, IMHO, as AVM really does look like a bargain at these prices.

[deemule] 04/4/2005 20:19

Mieke

Didn't like to keep on about AVM on the TAN thread, you are probably correct about a large sale going through RAB have just sold their holding in GFM , now it is out in the open it is bouncing nicely, these like GFM are way undervalued and if i can get out of some other stocks will be adding these to my portfolio.

[mieke] 04/4/2005 20:01

Thanks Andy - yes I reckon this has all the hall marks of a seller in the wings and the MMs are crucifying them - best to wait out the action, those who sold in the downwash may have cause to regret. Who did you speak to, Henry?

[andy] 04/4/2005 19:42

Mieke,

Agreed, but with a falling shareprice, no statement from the company, and everyone in a meeting, I'm entitled to speculate surely?

Anyway I have spoken now, and am reassured!

I have also been told seperately there is possibly a large seller(s) so naturally MM's are going to take him out cheaply!

[phillis] 04/4/2005 18:57

Kojak, these output forecasts relate to y/ending 31/3/06.
Riska output and gold price in second half of 05/06 are significant uncertainties today. Ther ehas to be some sort of discount for these factors.

[kojak78] 04/4/2005 18:40

Evolution forecast is based on 210000 oz production and 258 cash costs.

the latest figures were 135000 penjom, 46000 tajikistan and 60000 riska, making 240000.

cash costs could fall slightly to 250 because of pre-stripping and investments in tajikistan (ultra high cash costs there will at least come down a bit). risko will bring down the average to 225.

20% more margin, 14% more production, makes 13.6 pence instead of 10.

evolution uses unrealistic numbers..

[phillis] 04/4/2005 18:37

The large deals are "crosses" -from one holder to another at the middle price. Portfolio shuffling for tax optimisation purposes probably.

[mieke] 04/4/2005 17:20

But dont forget 50,000 of those shares were sold on at market price to another director - and its only 2 months or so ago that there was another big buy by directors( (230,000) in the 90s. So if something is afoot (I personally doubt it - I think its a stock overhang) then its come out of the blue.

[jk8] 04/4/2005 17:19

I wonder how many of the shares that have recently come onto the market have been picked up by the boss???

[corrientes] 04/4/2005 17:14

Plus maybe not helped by the senior manager who was able to encash his 200k option shares over the last month costing him 30p each.

[goml] 04/4/2005 17:02

mieke 340,000 would not usually be enough to cause such a drop. There's probably more to be shown. Either that or the mm's know there is a distressed seller out there and they are flushing him out. Hopefully that's the case because they'll take no time in whacking the offer back up on low volume.

[mieke] 04/4/2005 16:46

Andy - calm yourself man. Jeez, companies have meetings all the time. Big 340,000 trade went through at the end.

[andy] 04/4/2005 16:22

Just rung Avocet, lady told me everyone is in a meeting!

Doesn't augur well IMHO, let's hope I'm wrong.

[acko2001] 04/4/2005 15:35

Strange this fall - used it to double the shares I bought back on friday.

[jmobrien] 04/4/2005 15:06

According to Company REFS, Evolution Securities as recently as March 14 forecast 2005 EPS as 4.99p and 2006 as 9.83p. This gives a forward PE of 7.78....

In the absence of any announcements and the low volumes both on Friday and so far today, the fall seems baffling.