Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[kojak78] 01/4/2005 11:18

There *was* something afoot. The price rise was capped at 105 and then we had that lang trading range between 97 and 100 which was broken to the downside. that signals distribution. someone big has sold, perhaps artemis? who knows..

last time i sold at 78, this high i figured I'd sell at least part of my holdings but i'd had to pay taxes. now we're at a low again, just look at rsi, stochastics etc.
fundamentals are p/e 6.5

IMO this is the single most undervalued stock in the world
US$640/production oz vs US$2100 average
US$80/reserve oz vs. US$ 140 average
pe 6.5 vs. 54 average

oil 56 suggest gold 1650 now, without inflation, with todays production costs..

[hosede] 01/4/2005 11:17

Been looking for these for a while - hold OXS and GOL so an indonesian mine would spread my geographical spread so to speak - but chart looks awful. Why this accelerating plunge if there is no bad news? stop losses being activated? earthquake? confused!

[taylor20] 01/4/2005 11:15

Cheers JK8,

Decided to top up anyway @ 82p - looks like further to fall but may not be in next week to take advantage.

[jk8] 01/4/2005 10:58

I've just spoken to the head accountant at Avocet - and he assures me that he knows of no reason for the share price fall. So, if he is being totally honest (and i assume that he knows what is going on in the company)then nothing is afoot.

[kojak78] 01/4/2005 10:37

when the xau traded at 87 avocet was at 98, now we're xau 94 and avocet should be at 1.14

we have lost nearly 30% vs. other gold stocks now, never happened before in the last years..

however, avocet is now the cheapest of the 30 biggest gold producers, even cheaper than durban

avm 170 mio / (0.24 mio oz * (425-245)) = price/cash flow 3.9
drdgold 300 mio / (0.58 mio oz * (425-310)) = 4.49

and drdgold declined over 80% from the top, worst performance of all 30 biggest gold producers, yet we're cheaper than them..

[yikyak] 01/4/2005 10:04

We may have to touch arounmd 80 and then bounce, this time guaranteed (as anything can be) going through the £1. Nothing afoot imho, just Avocet being predictable and as boring as ever. Scott tried to break the chart and send it on a new uptrend (a little early in my opinion) in January but it looks as though we are stuck with this uptrend chart for now.

Anywhere between 79 and 81 is a screaming buy ready for the next run up to ?.

[taylor20] 01/4/2005 09:29

Hmmm... cancelled my limit buy, somethings afoot!

[goml] 01/4/2005 09:26

A sign of things to come?

IG currently showing Sept share price of AVM at £10500. I havn't tried selling my position to them yet!

[taylor20] 01/4/2005 09:08

Nearly there - can buy for 85.8p, I'll let ComDirect decide!

[taylor20] 01/4/2005 09:04

Agreed (Although its not a steel, more like solid gold - I'll get my coat!)

Just put a limit buy in for 85.75p, may get lucky...

[brad1] 01/4/2005 09:01

This is getting into a must buy situation - any further devaluation and this will be an absolute steel.

[yikyak] 30/3/2005 10:23

US dollar facing collapse, warns Malaysia's Mahathir

KUALA LUMPUR, (AFP) - The US dollar is facing an imminent collapse and the global economy will suffer a "catastrohpe" when it is rejected as the currency for trade, former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad said.

Mahathir, who famously ignored International Monetary Fund (IMF) advice and instead chose to peg his country's ringgit to the US dollar during the Asian financial crisis, said a standard gold currency was now the best alternative for world trade.

The dollar was retaining some value because of fears of a global economic catastrophe if it was rejected, he told a conference of some 650 chief executives from 30 countries at a conference in Kota Kinabalu on Borneo island Tuesday, The Star newspaper reported.

"But the catastrophe will come one day because even the most powerful country in the world cannot repay loans amounting to seven trillion dollars," Mahathir said.

The former premier, who was also finance minister, said he believed central banks worldwide were reducing their US dollar reserves and he suspected that Malaysia was also switching to other currencies.

Telling reporters that he was giving his personal views, he warned that "unless (the Americans) change their president and have a more responsible president who will try to reduce the deficit, they will have serious trouble with the US currency."


Mahathir told the CEOs it was doubtful that the sliding dollar could regain its old strength as the administration of President George W. Bush did not consider deficits worth reducing.

The huge deficit meant that the dollar had no backing but it continued to be used internationally because some people still accepted payments in dollars.

"But there will come a time when we will switch away from the dollar and we have suggested the use of gold for international trade," he said.

Meanwhile, if companies did not want to be "short changed" they should insist on payments in alternative currencies such as the euro or be paid in US dollars but at euro-equivalent value, he said.

Mahathir, who was widely condemned internationally for imposing capital controls and pegging the ringgit to the dollar during the Asian financial collapse 1998, has since won plaudits from economists and the IMF for his handling of the crisis.

Mahathir, who retired in October 2003 after 22 years in power, created a stir in January when he joined a chorus of calls for Malaysia to review the currency peg of 3.8 to the dollar because of the US unit's decline in value.

[kojak78] 29/3/2005 23:19

In fact, gold trades at 73 year lows vs. oil, only before 1932 the ratio was lower..

[kojak78] 29/3/2005 15:06

The 25-year gold bear market goes on and on with gold making an all time low vs. oil recently. The gold/oil ratio is 7.85 now vs. the former lows of 8.2 in 1976, 9 in 1982, 10.6 in 1985, 10.6 in 1990 and 8.1 in 2000. The average ratio is 15.4 and the top 34 in 1980.

If gold traded in an average situation the price would be US$835 and if we'd been in a real bull market we would trade somewhere between US$1350 and US$1850.

As the gold industry has an average cost of US$350 (excluding exploration spending) the margin is reduced to US$75 from US$485. The margin in a bull market would be US$1500.

Expect the average gold stock to increase 6.5x if the price of gold nears its historical average and 20x if we enter a new bull market in the future..

[yikyak] 24/3/2005 14:30

The U.S. current account deficit widened more than expected in the period to a record $187.9 billion, driving the full-year gap to a new high of $665.9 billion, a government report showed on Wednesday.

[kojak78] 24/3/2005 13:55

500000+200000+100000 = 800000 = 0.75% (fully diluted 107.3 mio shares)
only 3 investors..

[richgit] 24/3/2005 13:00

budevenweiser.

Enjoy your vacation,it sounds wonderful and I enjoyed your story.

I often thought posting on messageboards was quite sad,however having the odd
rant is quite addictive and I am usually laughing as I write,so find it somewhat therapeutic.

I cannot put any faces to the people I class as idiots,and thus I dont feel
I offend,especially when I have also been an idiot myself,and may still be so.

In general I try maintain genuineness and at least my own belief in a stock
where I have my own money at similar risk to others,and would have no party
to knowingly misleading.

I am musing on my next rant,but the impresssion of smugness must go as whilst
I enjoy the relief of my miserable-git,smug-git is indeed deplorable.

[kojak78] 24/3/2005 10:59

markets are mad. avocet still is cheaper than xau gold stocks were when pog was 250.. and that without considering ramped up production in future years.

at least i made some decent gains in drdgold, sold my agnico-eagle at 15.74 and bought drd at .88

is anybody of you invested with leverage? i usually use the full margin as a sell at small losses anyway if prices decline, but avocet has too low a price to be bought on margin with an austrian bank..

[yikyak] 24/3/2005 10:34

Stop Press
Date: March 24, 2005

Pierre Lassonde Will Set The Industry Alight As Chairman Of The World Gold Council.

Chris Thompson has handed over the reins as chairman of the World Gold Council to Pierre Lassonde and he can look back on his tenure as a job well done. The major achievement was his success in launching streetTRACKS® Gold Trust on the New York Stock Exchange last November. The SEC and the NYSE put every conceivable barrier the way of Thompson and his team, but their patience eventually won the day.

At the time he took on the job three years ago he had to contend with the steering committee of a dissident group called the Gold Marketing Initiative which had been been pushing the idea that it, rather than the WGC, should be backed in putting new financial weight behind a marketing and promotional campaign for gold jewellery. This steering committee was made up of representatives from AngloGold, Barrick Gold, , Sons of Gwalia, Gympie Gold, Kinross Gold and Randgold Resources. Quite a powerful little group at the time, but two of the smaller companies have since gone bust which emphasises the need to keep focused on running the business in hand rather than joining committees.

Thompson saw the dissidents off when he was starting his challenge of launching gold- backed , exchange traded funds in Melbourne London and Johannesburg while delivering a full frontal attack on the financial authorities in New York. And he has stage managed his exit cleverly by persuading an old friend Pierre Lassonde to take over from him.

Pierre is one of the most intelligent men in the gold mining industry and became President of Newmont Mining in 2002 after it acquired Franco-Nevada Mining. He had built this company as co-CEO with Seymour Schulich and it demonstrated the wisdom of acquiring royalties. Pierre is one of Canada's leading gold analysts and wrote "Gold Book, The Complete Investment Guide To Precious Metals".

At the 2004 BMO Nesbitt Burns Global Resources Conference in Tampa, Florida he told the audience "We haven't even started to correct the US financial imbalance of the last three years. Don't tell me that the gold bull market is over. It has hardly even started." He then went on to predict that gold would outperform other assets for some time to come. "As long as they don't cure the financial imbalances, the dollar will continue to go down and be very volatile. I don't know how long it will take, but it will take quite a few years to work through, and that is the gold story in a nutshell."

This is the sort of punchy talk that the gold industry needs from the man at the helm. The US authorities have put the WGC on silence about streetTRACKS® Gold Trust on the grounds that it is in a permanent quiet period as it has been classified as a 'continuous offering'. Maybe, but just let them try to stop Pierre Lassonde talking about gold.




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[theberg] 24/3/2005 01:00

Richgit,

Really, how about when mms are long on behalf of clients and want to sell on a move up?

Sceptic Berg(;-)0>

[richgit] 24/3/2005 00:12

Those idiots that are trying to trade AVM.

I could give you a few lessons,but basically to trade a share within 10-20 days
you need reason for why the shares should go up.Avocet have announced that
there was a slight drop in production and the market is not going to push these shares up even if Gold goes to $500.Avocet share price will go up when confirmation comes that in particular the new mine is flowing,and that NEW targets are deemed to be met.

The shares will then break the barrier and any further good news,which WILL happen,will lead to a strong and unstoppable re-rating.

Meanwhile,hold and buy on this weakness.


I am bored with the markets,and bored with Lemming investors

[kojak78] 22/3/2005 20:30

the dollar doesn't matter that much for gold. oil 60 suggests US$900/oz POG, in 1980 the ratio was even 30:1 suggesting US$1650

commodities are overvalued compared to gold. a simple uranium prospect is worth more than the whole of DRDGold, producing 600000 oz at a profit once northwest is gone..

small gold miners aren't macro bets.