Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[taylor20] 04/4/2005 14:54

Cash costs are expected to be around $258.

And they are likely to start unwinding some the hedge this year reducing gold price to below $400.

[phillis] 04/4/2005 14:45

Where is this forecast replicated by ananlysts?
Half year was 4 and a bit cents

[kojak78] 04/4/2005 14:31

this is pence, just calculate yourself, 240000 oz, 240 us$ cash costs, 425 US$ gold price = 44.4 mio cash flow
deduct 8 mio overhead/capex etc, =36.4 mio
30% tax rate = 25.5 mio
convert to GBP = 13.55 mio
divide by 107.3 mio shares fully diluted = 12.6pence

[phillis] 04/4/2005 14:19

Where do you get 12.5p? Is this not $cents?

[kojak78] 04/4/2005 14:16

could be artemis, selling all avm holdings..

p/e 6 now.

[andy] 04/4/2005 13:58

presumably there must be either be a very large seller, and they are dumping rather than selling through the market in a protected trade, or some really bad news coming?

has anyone rung AVM this morning?

[taylor20] 04/4/2005 09:47

Have to admit the political situation in Taj. never seemed as bad as Kyrg. but I haven't looked into it in any depth recently.

From EurasiaNet (March 9th):

"Political conditions in Tajikistan, which also held parliamentary elections on February 27, are markedly different from those in Kyrgyzstan. While Tajik opposition leaders, like their Kyrgyz counterparts, complained bitterly about voting irregularities, efforts to protest the results in Tajikistan have fallen flat. In the days immediately following the vote – which according to OSCE monitors featured ballot-stuffing and other improprieties – leaders of the main opposition political parties spoke of organizing public protests and a parliamentary boycott.

Tajiks greeted the protest trial balloon with a decided lack of interest. Given that the country is still recovering from the effects of the 1992-97 civil war, an overwhelming majority appear anxious to avoid any type of disturbance that could provoke internecine violence. "

[dixi] 04/4/2005 09:37

JK8 - maybe not but it seems to be harming Oxus less who have operations there!!

[jk8] 04/4/2005 09:24

I guess that the situation in Kyrgstan cannot be helping.

[taylor20] 04/4/2005 09:18

Must be a large seller, I guess its a case of wait for large increase in volume and buy in...

Shame I topped up on Friday!

[kojak78] 04/4/2005 09:17

as I said, the cheapest gold producer out of the 30 biggest of the whole world..

[mieke] 04/4/2005 09:06

Amazing 20% decline in a week. Cause? I know not what, maybe a line of stock to be disposed, year end tax selling? Its been on low volume, and fundamentals look just as solid, this does look exceptionally cheap now. News (4th quarter production) is within 4 weeks.

[goml] 01/4/2005 15:48

ahrrr biswell, welcome.
How appropriate you should show up again after so long on April Fools day.

[biswell] 01/4/2005 15:24

Who would have thought it eh ?

B

[yikyak] 01/4/2005 13:53

Told ya, it's turning.

[yikyak] 01/4/2005 13:23

Can I suggest a look at the 3 year chart as per my previous post, we are going up from here. The boss tried to break the current chart and create a new more aggresive uptrend but failed and hence the backtest to 80/81. We are back on support of the old chart as we have been many times before ready for the next rise.

[corrientes] 01/4/2005 13:00

Seems to my untrained mind that AVM has had a derisory share price increase in the last 15 months, the same sort of movement as the price of gold and the production isn't any better than it was 15 months ago. Clearly any increase in the in situ value of gold is worth jack sh-t as far as the market is concerned.
When I think of comparable gold miners in exactly the same position, I realise that PR ain't AVM'S game.This state of affairs could go on forever, and something drastic needs to happen,like a dividned, but do management really want anything to change I ask myself.Should do with the number of shares the boss has.Don't understand.

[acko2001] 01/4/2005 12:39

On 22nd March I posted the following

"I think the main problem is that Gold has completed (in my view) a big wave one up that has lasted for 4 years. We then went down in 5 small waves and back up in three small waves. That was wave 1 and 2 of big wave 2 down. Not sure yet where that will finish but I would expect gold to be dropping under $400 at least as the full 5 waves down will need to be completed. That will then allow big wave three which will be the main one to commence. That will be the wave that takes gold well beyond $500.

Before all the gold bugs go on at me - I am one too. I have been in AVM since below 30p and yesterday took my profits. The main risk is that AVM is undervalued and it may upgrade its resources, if that happens whilst I am out tehn I have been unlucky in my timing. If it doesnt then I have done well.

I was half expecting AVM not to move down with the gold price as it didnt move up with teh gold price either. Today has confirmed that that is not going to be the case."

I dont believe that gold has finished its decline but the reaction from avm has been overdone. I thought I might get avm at around this price if gold broke $400. It amazes me how avm failed to follow gold on the way up and yet has followed it further on the way down and without sustained volume. I have now rebought the shares that I sold at 94p for 81.75p. They may go lower as gold finishes its five waves down but if so I will buy some more.

[kojak78] 01/4/2005 12:09

earnings will be 12.5p based on current figures..

and the valuation on reserves doesn't take into account that avocet ha only 1.2 mio jorc based resserves but 1.9 mio "scheduled for production" resources. also penjom is very complex and tajikistan isn't even scratched yet, so reserves is absolutely no problem.

[taylor20] 01/4/2005 12:01

Market Cap: £86 million, of which over £10 million in cash, with EPS of 10c, seems good value to me.

On their comparison with peers that Evo did, the worst equivalent valuation was based on resources and that produced a shares price of 87p.

[kojak78] 01/4/2005 11:56

If you think about it it's ridiculous, 240,000 oz now command average market caps of 500 mio. 300,000 oz in 2006 630 mio..

So Avocet is worth 250p just now and abover 300p next year without any change in the gold price.

I wonder what gold price scenario AVM is pricing in? sub 200 pog bob prechter?

Just remember Durban 2001: 6x gain in 6 months..

[hosede] 01/4/2005 11:37

buys coming in now - decided to join them - fundamentals over charts

[hosede] 01/4/2005 11:20

A lot of small sells sugggest weak holders being stoplossed out