Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[tradejunkie2] 06/6/2019 13:50

dround87, you are now among the top cats congrats.

[dround87] 06/6/2019 13:46

They could pay 10bn today if they needed

[dround87] 06/6/2019 13:39

Well like I say the margins are good. Aviva can weather one hell of a storm as is before that happens.

[jordaggy] 06/6/2019 13:33

87, in that context no. But if profits did slip, it would be milliseconds before the hedge funds would come hunting. I'd prefer the divi reduced and the debt brought down.

[dround87] 06/6/2019 13:13

Compared to over 3bn profit? No biggie. Big company. Big numbers. It's manageable. Margins are alright too on something like 25bn revenue and the restructure will help. Its also sitting on loads of capital and assets which make the debt look like loose change. It is not as bad as some people here are making out.

[jordaggy] 06/6/2019 12:52

Did I read that correctly? 10.7 billion debt?

[cordwainer] 06/6/2019 12:31

Anyone else think the thread header's too big? .. i can only see 3 posts on this page.

[skinny] 06/6/2019 12:18

I've held both for @10 years.

[oggyrocks] 06/6/2019 12:13

Obviously AV are the best.

Think LGEN might be a bit safer, but they are more expensive. Think there is more potential with AV. I used to hold LGEN but now only hold AV. V pleased with overweight rating shown above.

Would be great to get above the 200 MDA.

Don't know much about PRU.

[cordwainer] 06/6/2019 12:09

I rang up Aviva the other day to get shareholder discount and got my car insurance renewal reduced from 271 to 224. 271 was already the best quote on the market.

[cordwainer] 06/6/2019 11:58

AV. vs PRU vs LGEN - which is the best investment ??

[smurfy2001] 06/6/2019 11:51

The company has announced a £300m cost target (net of inflation – absolute cost saves in excess of £300m) through to 2022, reducing its absolute cost based from c£4bn to £3.7bn, a 7.5% cost reduction. If these costs fell to the bottom line, it would add c6p to EPS through to 2022, equivalent to c50% of our EPS growth. While this is unlikely to lead to positive earnings revisions, it will give increased confidence on the ability of the company to deliver on current consensus estimates (mid-single digit EPS growth). The company has also reiterated its commitment to a progressive dividend and £1.5bn of debt leverage, and stated trading year to date is broadly consistent with 2018.

While expectations were modest going into today (the company is hosting a more in-depth analyst day on 20th November 2019 when we expect more detailed targets), the comments on the cost saves, trading update, dividend and de-leveraging should support estimates and the stock. Aviva is trading on 7.0x our 2019 operating EPS target (of 58.5p) and a 7.5% FY19 dividend yield, and with increased confidence on the company hitting our estimates (re-based lower by the new CEO in March), we reiterate our Overweight rating

[smurfy2001] 06/6/2019 11:50

Cost savings: 1) Aviva has announced £300m cost savings by 2022 which should support the EPS momentum; however, we believe that the issue with Aviva is more about fixing the debt leverage and strategy of the group rather than supporting EPS growth through cost savings which are short term in nature rather long term.

 Reiterating debt leverage reduction: 2) Management reiterated its intention to de-lever by £1.5bn by 2022 and flagged that the 2019-2021 outlook for cash inflows to center is comparable to 2016-2018 (which was £8bn); however, there is limited clarity so far as to what will be the make-up of the cash flows as the organic cash flows are considerably lower than cash flows achieved in 2016-2018.

 Reiterating dividend policy: 3) Aviva reiterated its progressive dividend policy which in our view is covered by organic cash flows and thus we weren’t expecting a dividend cut.

 Split of UK life and UK P&C: 4) UK life and UK P&C business to be split but there is limited clarity as to what are the positives/negatives from such a split.
 Although today’s announcement should support EPS momentum, we note that there are limited details around cash flow generation or strategy update, which in our view are the key concerns for investors at the moment.

[danielbird193] 06/6/2019 10:58

Steady on Junkie, this is a family site.

[porsche1945] 06/6/2019 09:31

usual wishy washy drivel and shares going nowhere, 280 more likely than 580. Should have sacked 10,000 and gone digital...the staff there are brain dead anyway. Div play only if you can handle share specific risk...small footprint/debt.

[buywell3] 06/6/2019 09:01

If he had made that 5,000 job cuts this rise could have been bigger

Debt is the problem.

[whatsup32] 06/6/2019 08:59

Deduce....you misunderstood my comment .

What made me chuckle was he did NOT want a bid for the company.

I don't believe that for one second.
We have a positive start today . Let's hope it continues

All the best .

[dround87] 06/6/2019 08:38

When I become boss I'm going to start by firing all those who have ever wronged me. Muahaha!

[smurfy2001] 06/6/2019 08:28

Well the update was comforting

[brick tycoon] 06/6/2019 08:11

It's just leaving the launchpad now

[p0pper] 06/6/2019 08:10

tfergi, there's not really anything in it that we sort of already didn't know.

[tfergi] 06/6/2019 08:08

Investor update hasn't exactly put a rocket under the SP

[pete160] 06/6/2019 07:38

I agree that an insurance buy from Buffett wouldn't be out of the question - it is after all a business that he understands.

Whilst on short term value he might invest in AV or LGEN, I would think in terms of scale and longer term growth and value, PRU would be the one of the three that he would be interested in a deal with (key point, if he buys anything it would likely be with the management's buy in rather than hostile). My other punt for Buffett would be RB. although that's not likely to be a particularly friendly chat there if he went knocking like he did at Unilever.

(I'm in AV and LGEN for yield and a post brexit bounce, but Pru is on my watchlist for a pull back)