Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[1robbob] 14/12/2023 13:14

Now that the dust has settled, I thought it might be worth calmly revisiting the takeover rumours of a month or so back.

Personally I think that there is some foundation to the rumours. There are far better stocks out there to ‘Ramp’ if that is all it was and there are far more obvious stories for journalists to ‘stir the pot’ with.

We need to accept that the Insurance sector is probably the most corporately incestuous industry in the UK, with most executives having worked for several different companies within the sector. Indeed our Chairman in addition to Aviva has worked for RSA, Zurich and Prudential and our CEO for Axa, Zurich and the old CU.

So ‘discussions’ and ‘chats’ etc would be commonplace, no doubt lots of ‘what if’s’. Only if and when Terms or Price are mentioned would a public statement be necessary. Indeed it would not be at all difficult to set a ‘hare’ running to encourage a competitive situation!

I firmly believe that our CEO has a five year plan at AV, this would take her to the AGM in 2025 and I can’t believe that she would consider a share price at anywhere near the current level as an adequate return for her massive restructuring exercise and the £1m investment she made at circa 300p. So, to start preparing the ground now would be a wise strategy.

The most likely suitors, in my very amateur opinion, are Offshore Reinsurers/Insurers who I am sure would love to have direct access to all AVs UK exposure. However, any takeover of AV would be subject to significant regulatory and political scrutiny. So a UK entity would be best placed, Private Equity would be my favourite. PE would then be able to ‘negotiateR17; with the Offshore Insurers – not necessarily at arm’s-length!. Perhaps a hybrid version of the relationship Admiral has with Hannover Re and Munich Re. Most of Aviva’s Institutional Investors, domestic and International, are big investors in PE, so they would not necessarily be giving up their investment in AV.

My over riding thought is that AB would like ideally like to leave AV after a 5 year tenure; with a job well done, substantial capital gains by all, a Damehood , in huge demand as a Non Exec...and hopefully for me, .....Chairperson of the Welsh Rugby Union

[yump] 14/12/2023 13:12

I was looking over the last few months. Actually much nicer to look at than just recently !

[spawny100] 14/12/2023 12:50

Strange I've seen much the opposite in my portfolio! Property related shares currently up around 6% whilst the like of AV, MNG and LGEN barely moved.

[yump] 14/12/2023 12:28

Quite interesting looking at the response of high income shares to the rate debate.

It appears that shares that are generally independent of the economy have risen well off their bottoms.

Meanwhile shares dependent on the economy have not risen so much (eg. the property ones). Presumably because the economy is not exactly flying.

While the renewables haven't reacted that much. Presumably because the debt levels/costs and asset investment cases don't improve with just a potential 1% drop in interest rates.

I haven't done stats - just looking at my income shares.

[dope007] 14/12/2023 12:27

The BOE are simply unfit for purpose

[engelbert1969] 14/12/2023 12:20

Aviva share price is forever underwhelming but with the silver lining of ridiculously good value on the divi reinvestment.

[yump] 14/12/2023 12:15

AV has been trading in this range for a long time and 440p is a big resistance that the algos and larger traders will be only too aware of.

So unless there is compulsive evidence that its in a better position than it has been over the last x years, no reason for it to carry on up.

Don't see a problem. Good yield, possible special div.

The way to make profit from the share price if you're so inclined is to buy at the bottom of the range and wait. See RIO as well.

These businesses are too large to suddenly have big improvements.

Plus AV did not tank on interest rate rises, it just went to the bottom of its range. Compare that with REIT's, which tanked and are now recovering.

[yump] 14/12/2023 12:13

AV has been trading in this range for a long time and 440p is a big resistance that the algos and larger traders will be only too aware of.

So unless there is compulsive evidence that its in a better position than it has been over the last x years, no reason for it to carry on up.

Don't see a problem. Good yield, possible special div.

The way to make profit from the share price if you're so inclined is to buy at the bottom of the range and wait. See RIO as well.

These businesses are too large to suddenly have big improvements.

[skinny] 14/12/2023 12:07

Yes incredibly 3 voted for a rise.

[eurofox] 14/12/2023 12:05

Although rates have been held, the voting of individuals would suggest BoE remains more hawkish than the FED

[mountpleasant] 14/12/2023 11:55

Is there some bad news? It's tanked

[skinny] 14/12/2023 11:49

Yes - underwhelming!

[whatsup32] 14/12/2023 11:32

Had hoped with implications of rates going down Av would rise....

I'm not good with my predictions.

[smurfy2001] 14/12/2023 11:26

Feels like it's being held down yet again despite a 150+ rally. It stinks.

[spud] 14/12/2023 11:25

A reluctant participant in this rally and is now my worst performer today, being dragged inexorably back towards negative territory.

Oh well, it's a good job the dividend is sound and safe (or should that be safe and sound?).

spud

[eurofox] 14/12/2023 09:36

What a lame duck this is becoming - the reduction of my holding here several days ago was re-invested in gilts and has added more % capital gain (tax free) than the % increase in AV. I guess gilts are not day-traded by people who take out value from AV all the time.

[geckotheglorious] 14/12/2023 09:34

lol, Far Right.
There's no Far Right in the UK these days of any note at all.

Be far more worried about Far left myself, of which there are plenty

[yump] 14/12/2023 09:16

“ White male recruits must get final sign off from me, says Aviva boss:-”

That will fall foul of employment law regarding recruitment, as it is discriminatory.

How come these apparently clever people are psychologically clueless?

A toxic culture or process is still toxic if you invert it. Changing the content doesn’t change the toxicity.

Same goes for positive discrimination. There’s nothing positive about it. It will just cause resentment in the rest of the population.

Thats how wars start.

[tuftymatt] 14/12/2023 08:42

Yeah and you can be certain that AB won't be as dovish as Powell was yesterday that's for sure!!

Good luck all 👍🏻

[smurfy2001] 14/12/2023 08:32

Interest rate decision today.