Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[klotzak] 30/3/2021 21:48

7943 onwardscjac39, pleases tell me the value in those posts. Two posters.Let's not cherry pick, there's money to be made, without snide remarks to anyone.For someone to be on here at this time, the most exciting time in my 18 months holding, then they've come to find out information and share there's.I offered Whatsup a friendly line of my ideas on taxation...and his vitriolic response is belo to see.

[1robbob] 30/3/2021 21:33

cjac39
Perhaps for the first time in years the 'stars are aligned' for AV,?

[cjac39] 30/3/2021 21:33

7975 and 7976

Klozak

Please explain what added value they provide to this thread. Entirely unrelated ad hominem negative comments.

The problem with this is not personal to you or anyone else; just it makes this thread more tiresome and eventually people will leave.

We’ve lost a few but thankfully I’m still in touch with wba. I’m sure others will drift away with more tediousness like this.

[klotzak] 30/3/2021 21:10

Jen, not you. I was quoting the nonsense Whatty had posted.He's a deflector, and whilst he floats about one person that has filtered me, I think we need to refrain from challenging her. I'm here to make money and share what I find out. I'd like to think that's team play, whatty seems to be here to shuffle around in her nest and start fights with those that don't accept her unsubstantiated claims.

[klotzak] 30/3/2021 21:05

Whatsup, so you resort to poor comms? I'll raise your issue to one of poor inter-personal skills!Good day.

[cjac39] 30/3/2021 20:11

I’m not going to add anything to the extensive coverage this has attracted.

What is however less discussed is the potential turn in the rate cycle. I’ve been sceptical it was an actual inflexion point rather than a bump in the road. However it does look more like there is something here.

Rising rates for insurers of course have all sorts of benefits. From the p&c side it elevates the return potential from the float and reduces longer reserves.

From the life side it’s even more prolific given longer liability profile. Higher yields equals more retail annuities as pricing improves. Similarly it equals more buyouts as deficits improve. Under s2 it equals lower risk margin (which hopefully is on the way out) which temporarily is offset by lower tmtp but overtime it reduces drag of tmtp unwind.

So overall accretive I would argue

[whatsup32] 30/3/2021 19:44

kenmitch,

Strange you’re welcoming comments with opposing views in a non aggressive way and without personal attacks . Yet if you read back on your posts you’ll find you were the one that was aggressive with personal attacks.

As for klotz comments, not surprised you’re confused with his comments , think we all are

[whatsup32] 30/3/2021 19:36

klotzak,

I’ve been on this thread for two years without any issues with anyone until you two popped up that is . don’t need any advice from you on investment or poorly written comments.

You’ve already been filtered by others for sarcasm, I suggest you cool down before posting again.

[kenmitch] 30/3/2021 19:33

kiotzak

I’m a bit confused. I hope your post isn’t aimed at me. Perhaps you could confirm either way please. If it isn’t I agree with it and liked it too.

If it is I would be disappointed as though posting my strong views about buybacks I respect posters with a different opinion as long as they disagree in a non aggressive way and without personal attacks. And posts putting both sides of a case can help our investment decision making.

[anthony100] 30/3/2021 19:32

The average 30 day volume on trades is 9.4m and change per Bloomberg.

Might have s bit of momentum on the share price.

Not sure that out at 5 pounds is the safest bet

Currently the profits on this share match z disastrous foray into HSBC. Hooray.

[klotzak] 30/3/2021 19:12

Whatsup,Kenmitch,You seem pedantic and nitpicking my comments. I clearly stated if Aviva is undervalued to a tune of c40-50% then it makes sence to buy back shares.You seem hell bent on causing trouble or I'll feeling on here. Why not consider some 'get well time' and cool down before posting gain?You bolshy and headstrong aggressive posts are poor traits that you display.We're all here to make money by investing in a well run and profitable business. I'm sure if you were better at it you would be CEO.. but until then maybe it's time to let others discuss, learn and support each other. This great thread is helping people in more ways that's one.

[godin] 30/3/2021 17:38

Anyone notice the multi million uncrossing trade that has been going through every day for the last week or more?Strange!

[scrwal] 30/3/2021 17:28

The only thing I know for certain is that I am almost back to break even on this share!

[1robbob] 30/3/2021 15:48

At best the daily turnover in AV shares is 5m
....presumably 2.5m buys and 2.5m sells

How many shares a day could the Company purchase before it ramps the price against itself?

Even if they bought 1m shares a day they would only purchase circa 5% of the equity
in a year and spend only 800m of the excess capital

[eurofox] 30/3/2021 15:44

Just got back from a long and totally delightful walk in our beautiful country side (sod Europe) and am amazed this discussion is still under way, hammer and tongs.

[fenners66] 30/3/2021 15:43

CSN are paying me about 13% now and increase the dividend by about 3% a year.
A good reason for being a long term holder

[kenmitch] 30/3/2021 15:41

Many thanks for pointing that out fenners66. It might fall on deaf ears but I’m still grateful!

[kenmitch] 30/3/2021 15:39

Worth a mention of Ferrexpo? They’ve paid out about 60p in dividends and specials in 2020 and already in 2021.

The Ferrexpo share price has TRIPLED since this time last year as well. And the ex dividend share price drop has been made up for in no time. The dividend yield at the 125p price is approaching 50%. What’s not to like about that? I’d be happy with it if no capital gain on top, yet despite all those dividends Ferrexpo has tripled!

Does this example back up the case for Aviva returning money to their investors that way? I think it does (though it’s very unlikely the share will do as well). I would be interested to know why it isn’t a good way of returning spare cash, bearing in mind this Ferrexpo example. I’ve held Ferrexpo for years, except for selling temporarily in the crash last year and buying back again at £1.25 compared with £3.60 now.

Is this great experience with Ferrexpo clouding my judgement?

I’m also looking at Chesnara as a replacement for Aviva if Aviva resort to a big buyback programme. Chesnara has been a consistently high dividend payer for years and afaiaa have not bought back shares and are unlikely to do so.

[fenners66] 30/3/2021 15:39

You can see how this happens though
businesses get sold when other businesses have cash on hand - so when the market is doing well. That provides cash for buybacks at precisely the wrong time.

Like latter day Viv Nicholsons CEO's feel the cash burning holes in their pockets and cannot wait to spend it.

Holding on to the cash , waiting for the next crash.... there will be one , and either buying another business or if they had to buying back their shares at half the cost would surely be more productive.

But then some short term thinking wet behind the ears anal-ysts would start criticising the return on capital metric...

I would say up yours to the anal-ysts - it has not harmed Apple to sit on a cash mountain for years

[1robbob] 30/3/2021 15:39

I have seen suggestions that Special Dividends are a tax efficient way of returning capital to Shareholders

I am no tax guru, but surely this is totally wrong

Following Gordon Brown's Tax grab of years ago (ACT etc) Income Tax at the standard rate is in effect deducted at source by the Company on the ENTIRE dividend. Regardless as to whether the shareholder is liable, also excess tax deducted can not be reclaimed. In addition there may be a liability for Income Tax at higher rates

So whether you like it or not; tax at the basic rate is deducted from all dividends. Even if held in a Pension Fund, SIPP or ISA

However if the repayment is made as capital. CGT is only payable on the PROFIT (after allowances) not the entire payment and not at all if held in a Pension Fund, SIPP or ISA

The maxim is Dividends are for the distribution of profits not capital

[fenners66] 30/3/2021 15:33

To balance the discussion between the 2 :-

whatsup32 30 Mar '21 - 09:27 - 7932 of 7958
"Here you say if Aviva had bought back their shares when they were half this price it would have been good investment."

What he actually wrote was :-

kenmitch
30 Mar '21 - 07:59 - 7930 of 7958

"if, say, Aviva had bought back near the lows last year they could have bought twice as many for the same outlay as they could now."

Not endorsing the idea but stating the rather obvious twice as many shares for the same cash is better.

Clearly also not endorsing was

"if they really feel they must go for buybacks then, yes, do them when the share is clearly undervalued, but preferably don’t go for them at all. "

[scrwal] 30/3/2021 14:47

The Tesco scheme and SLA in 2018 are done so that the share price remains the same. All that happens is you get a special div and fewer new shares but the combined value is equivalent to the shares held before reorganisation - therefore to maintain your dividend you have to reinvest the special.

[mark1000] 30/3/2021 14:20

I know we talk about share buy backs and special divs and tenders but we should also consider the Tesco type return of funds to shareholders we might not like it but Tesco are no mugs and presumably for Insti's this was cleverly thought out from a tax point of view so we should not dismiss lightly such a vehicle as being currently the best in class for a large % return of cash. Could also have an offer for all shareholders free off cost to say sell upto a 100 shares at an advantageous price to reduce the size of the share register.

[mountpleasant] 30/3/2021 13:39

Like I said earlier.. .its your own money they are giving you back.
Special dividends are only beneficial to funds, or ISA holders. Tax would be a big problem to ordinary holders, at higher tax bracket. A tender offer? Most people would not have a Scooby doo how to handle it. Picture the army of small, older investors.
Fairer to all size and type of shareholders is a combination of buybacks, and quarterly dividends, or a capital repayment done in a tax efficient way. I had similar from a company called NTR. Was to appease bigger shareholders for tax reasons.

[rcturner2] 30/3/2021 13:23

The main thing is how the market reacts to the announcement when it comes as to how they will return the cash to the shareholders.