Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[scrwal] 26/3/2021 12:29

Looking at the 2020 presentation the Ratio was 202% but when adding on France and Italy it rises to 236%. The debt reduction of £1.7bn seems to have a 12% adjustment.
This all comes from pages 12-15 but the info is fragmented as the complete position is never shown.

Taking the figures as presented there is a 2020 Ratio of 202% . France and Italy add 34% , debt reduction reduces by 12% and now Poland adds 13%. That basically gives a Ratio of 236% with the excess now £5.8bn, coincidentally the figure shown on page 13.

The capital is returned when the transactions complete.

[ecoover] 26/3/2021 12:08

They should simple invest this money on world stock market . Buy apple , microsoft or top microprocessors producers(there is shortage of chips in the world ).

[wish i wasnt in rbs] 26/3/2021 12:04

Ecover - that's an interesting dilemma as a chief exec - increase shareholder value without spaffing it all away.

[scrwal] 26/3/2021 12:02

The surplus cash probably does exceed £3bn and returning that to shareholders does imply a capitalisation reduction of 25% in whatever form. The problem is that the share price is under-rated by the market and this amplifies any returns % wise.

For comparison SLA in 2018 returned £1bn and reduced their market capitalisation by 12.5%.

[1robbob] 26/3/2021 12:02

As Poland sale has increased the Solvency Ratio buy 13%, that implies it is now circa 215% against the target of 180% announced by AB

This indicates an excess of circa £4.5bn to be returned to shareholders
Is this correct?

[ecoover] 26/3/2021 11:54

It must fly in medium term , 50% of MCap in cash , core profit £2.5 Bln .

[1robbob] 26/3/2021 11:47

fenner66
I disagree
The Institutions know there are no buyers out there. They will have hawked it around everywhere they could think of, before instigating the Board reforms

[cjac39] 26/3/2021 11:47

the poland sale does change the game a bit though no. at £4 the shares are now through book value so why wouldnt a buyback be accretive? i simply cannot understand how a encashment of a material asset that increases BV by 10% doesnt cause a share price movement. there is close to no risk transactionally given its allianz so why there wasnt an immediate rerating is curious.

[spud] 26/3/2021 11:43

AVIVA PLC
‌2021‌ ‌ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING‌

I've voted and I hope all you chaps do as well. You can probably guess which resolutions I was against....

spud

[1robbob] 26/3/2021 11:40

From FT article just published

...'Jefferies predicts Aviva will return capital to investors in the first quarter of 2022. The market consensus is for a share buyback of between £3bn and £4bn, said Investec analysts.'

Surely this is nonsense? It implies a buyback of circa 25% of the ordinary shares

[fenners66] 26/3/2021 11:38

1robbob 26 Mar '21 - 11:33 - 7811 of 7811

"institutions .... are now honour bound.."

Sorry to say but I think we can pretty much dismiss that for most institutions as a strategy...

[1robbob] 26/3/2021 11:33

I am afraid those of you expecting a takeover are going to be disappointed
The opportunity was there for years and has now has passed.
Also non-sector buyers are put off by the regulatory and supervisory nature of the business

Subject to the terms of the return of capital, the Institutions who instigated the appointments of Culmer and AB and the change in strategy, are now honour bound to allow AB the chance to demonstrate what she can do with the retained businesses

[woodhawk] 26/3/2021 11:25

Buy low, sell high and bank some chunky divis in the interim. What's the problem?

[eurofox] 26/3/2021 11:23

Of course you are right Woodhawk, I'm just glad of the dips to buy, what else could one ask for?

[woodhawk] 26/3/2021 11:14

Cyberian - "WE did our bit to get the share price over 400p eurofox and now it is up to others."

LOL. All the posters here combined wouldn't make one iota of difference.

[fenners66] 26/3/2021 11:09

A takeover with all that extra cash on the balance sheet would make it easier for the buyer to swallow so perhaps there is an idea to keep the price down pending a bid

[salver2] 26/3/2021 11:05

Can anyone explain why Poland fetched so much more than Italy when it seems to have been far less profitable - I have to agree with some of the other posters here that this seems cheaper now after Therese sales than when it was 2.50 a share

[cyberian] 26/3/2021 10:50

yes...but nice with it! WE did our bit to get the share price over 400p eurofox and now it is up to others. It does make one wonder if a consortium will be considering a T/O, with the share price where it is and all that cash coming along over the next 12 months. The company are also making strides in reducing costs and driving more efficiency which will help the bottom line. Maybe AB has some other initiatives up her sleeve which will please the market.

[eurofox] 26/3/2021 10:49

Can't help it Linton5, they are printing £5 notes and selling them for 4 quid, what's not to like?

[spud] 26/3/2021 10:47

Even with all this great news and a substantial undervaluation, the Market still wants it down. I stand by my previous statement that in order to realise its true valuation, it has to be taken over. spud

[linton5] 26/3/2021 10:45

Patience has got us here euro🦊and it will do again to£5 hope your well and keep buying those dips 🤓

[eurofox] 26/3/2021 10:42

added just over 400, are we nuts?

[1robbob] 26/3/2021 10:02

To enable the share price to move further north; precise guidance is needed on the size, method and timing of the 'SUBSTANTIAL' return of capital to shareholders.

[mark1000] 26/3/2021 09:28

Spud its upto AB if she can provide whats been missing for years great leadership then the share over the next couple of years can truely rerate. Newspaper coverage has been warming to her and thats been earned but now she has to push for organic growth from the core hardening rates might make her not only a decisive CEO but also a lucky one.

[ianood] 26/3/2021 08:39

Spud - agreed, too many historic small investors