Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[ftime] 30/3/2021 13:16

I can easily see this getting back towards the 500 mark in the next few months. Company is in a much stronger position than it was around 3 years ago when it was last around the 500 mark with a much better leader and clear direction. Will continue to hold and buy more in the dips if I can.

[edmundshaw] 30/3/2021 12:50

...theoretically... not my experience in real trading, but I have not studied this across the board.

[scrwal] 30/3/2021 12:12

edmundshaw re post 7927 Given that any special dividend relates to asset sale proceeds then in theory the share price falls by that amount and initially doesn't recover as there is no change in the flows from the remaining assets. As the dividend gets paid then there should be an upward drift in the price but there is no change in the underlying metrics valuing the business unless market sentiment shifts. To me this indicates a permanent loss of value as things currently stand.

[devonbeachbum] 30/3/2021 12:11

Despite what QuePassa says RCT I continue to find your posts concise, helpful and informative. Thanks for your input.

[father jack1] 30/3/2021 11:03

Barclays raises to 387 and Morgan Stanley to 460. Not sure what balance sheet Barclays are studying.

[rcturner2] 30/3/2021 11:00

At the current share price the PE is 7.5 and the yield is nearly 6% ignoring the return of capital that will occur over the next 12 months.

[dr biotech] 30/3/2021 10:51

I wrote in my own trading notes to sell some at 400. This was early jan when the share price was about 325. I still hold all of them, mostly because I feel this has a little further to go, but also as I have no better ideas. I've failed in the past to let my winners run, but of course I've also missed the top.

Long term I dont feel that this will outperform as its just an insurer in a mature market. But its could be doing better than it is.

[smurfy2001] 30/3/2021 10:50

Up 66% no intention of selling.

[kenmitch] 30/3/2021 10:46

Obviously whether people sell or not is up to them and the way they prefer to Investment but I strongly agree with RCTurner2 that it often pays to run our winners. Amanda Blanca seems to have done a great job so far and there are signs of the share price responding. That big dividend and promise of increases is a plus too as it will appeal to income Unit and Investment Trusts, as well as a lot of ordinary investors looking for a quality income share. And there’s a chance of special dividends too. So there is a good chance of the share continuing its good run.

[whatsup32] 30/3/2021 10:42

Kenmitch,
You seem pedantic and nitpicking my comments. I clearly stated if Aviva is undervalued to a tune of c40-50% then it makes sence to buy back shares.

You disagreed with that but now to another commenter you agree with buy back if shares are undervalued.

A complete U turn .

Not worth discussing this Any Further with you as you are desperate to be right , even when you are clearly wrong.

[father jack1] 30/3/2021 10:41

Happy to stay fully invested here. Still 20% undervalued so happy to hold. Might topslice at 450 but there is plenty of upside so equally might not as value stocks will come back in vogue.

[rcturner2] 30/3/2021 10:34

I have gone from something like 80% cash to almost fully invested.

We are at the start of what is highly likely to be an extremely strong economic recovery.

IMHO people should be taking positions now with a view to holding them for 2-3 years.

[kenmitch] 30/3/2021 10:27

whatsup32

Of course I don’t agree with you.

e.g Your insistence that you have proved Kingfisher buyback worked is nonsense. We can’t prove that a buyback worked just because the share price went up. And people like me can’t PROVE that they didn’t work just because the share price fell. The reasons why have been fully explained if you bothered to read and absorb them.

What comes across in your replies is ignorance about buybacks and stubbornness. So it’s not worth debating with you any further. There have been some excellent posts here putting both plus and minus points so it might be worth you checking some of those out.

[pvi1] 30/3/2021 10:25

You're right it is a sane BB. Tell people you've sold your shares on some BBs they react like you've just murdered their entire family

[unastubbs] 30/3/2021 10:16

i'm nervous the market in general, i've done pretty well since november as the stocks i seem to like have been back in vogue. no harm taking a profit i always think. GLA, this is still the sanest and generally best mannered board on advfn. i'll be back soon i'm sure!

[alphorn] 30/3/2021 10:06

Closed out this morning too to take the gains. Will there be a journey and destination?

[rcturner2] 30/3/2021 10:02

I have no intention of selling. I bought mine at 325p you have to run your winners.

[oldfellowme1] 30/3/2021 09:57

Good luck to Una on selling out but i think BIG MISTAKE!

[unastubbs] 30/3/2021 09:48

i'm out. anyone else?
back in at 3.89.
hopefully ;)

[crt131] 30/3/2021 09:36

Now we are over 4.00 a share I do hope they avoid any buybacks at this level. Sub 3.00 no problem. Just use the excess cash to pay down as much debt as possible to ensure our future earnings (divs) are higher due to the savings made from the reduction in cost of the debt.

my take anyway
Cheers
CRT

[whatsup32] 30/3/2021 09:27

Kenmitch.
So you agree with my comment on Sunday despite putting my argument down at every opportunity.

I stated Aviva should buy back their shares if undervalued (c40-50%). Ticked

I stated Kingfisher shares doubled since repurchase began and it was a buy back that worked. You poo poo that.

Here you say if Aviva had bought back their shares when they were half this price it would have been good investment.

Here you now clearly say buybacks can work . Contrary to your comment of Sunday.

Have a nice day .

[spud] 30/3/2021 08:51

Missed from yesterday I think. Debt pay down if I'm not mistaken:AVIVA PLC: Early RepurchaseSource: UK Regulatory (RNS & others)TIDMAV. ISIN XS0951553592 Issuer Name Aviva Paying Agent HSBC Bank Plc Redemption Type REPURCHASE Currency EUR O/S Balance 650,000,000.00 New Balance 439,696,000.00 Value Date 16-Mar-21 spud

[kenmitch] 30/3/2021 07:59

Agree with nearly everything in your post edmundshaw. The only difference is that you approve of buybacks when the share is clearly undervalued whereas my view is one of if they really feel they must go for buybacks then, yes, do them when the share is clearly undervalued, but preferably don’t go for them at all. .

Fact is though, the vast majority of buybacks are done whatever the share price. And buybacks almost always peak when markets are at or close to their highs.

E.g buybacks peaked with (from memory) something like $1 trillion worth of buybacks in the US just before the market crash this time last year. And they peaked here then too with £hundreds of billions spent on them. An earlier peak was just ahead of the big banking crisis bear market in 2008. A good number of those Companies both times had to resort to rights issues to shore up balance sheets and so increase the share count again!

In reverse there are very few buybacks after big market falls. Yet if, say, Aviva had bought back near the lows last year they could have bought twice as many for the same outlay as they could now.

What is so misunderstood on bulletin boards is that idea that if, say, the Kingfisher share price doubled after they bought back that PROVES their buyback worked. It doesn’t as we can’t know what the share price would have been without buybacks. It might have gone up less. Equally it might have gone up more.

And the same applies in reverse. People who loathe buybacks can’t PROVE that they failed for the same reason. Again the share might have fallen even more, or by less.

What we can argue is that if the share price falls below the buyback prices shareholders have not received the big reward they are told they’ve been given. I held Marks and Spencer when Stuart Rose (who overall did a very good job at M&S imo) kept bragging in the media how he had rewarded shareholders with his £2 billion buybacks. The share fell relentlessly after them and it was no reward at all!

Finally as posted by someone earlier. The easy bit for Aviva was selling those businesses. Spending it wisely is crucial. As is how they hand it back to shareholders if deciding to reduce the huge cash pile that way. PLEASE do it via dividend increases (with the even higher yield providing support for the share price as income funds look to buy or increase holdings for that yield) and specials and not via wasteful buybacks.