Looks like the major shareholders of DLG have decided they will all hold out for a higher bid...
Top Direct Line Shareholders hold out for a higher Aviva bid |
You may be rewarded with your own money paid back to you, when it goes XD.
Has anyone worked out the "real" return on AV. shares over the last 5 years? |
The cure for that restlessness?
Think long term, think divis, and forget about the very short term price movements that occur with all shares. These pale into insignificance over time.
You may well then be rewarded but there are never any guarantees. |
While I don't lose sleep owning Av I do get restless . |
...It is depressing to not see a decent rise in share price
Bidder's shares normally fall. |
Unless you're looking to sell, surely a low price enables a VFM accumulation point in an extremely well run company that enables restful sleep at night.Unless I'm missing something.spud |
Bid for Av may be a little wishful thinking .
I've been wishful for a long time.
While our Dame has not put a foot wrong and move on DLG may be right . It is depressing to not see a decent rise in share price |
 I think that AV will prevail in the DLG bid, with a slightly sweeter Offer to gain the recommendation of the DLG BOD
Although the initial share price reaction may well be positive. Personally I am not enamoured by the prospect. 20% of the UK Motor insurance market an exceedingly 'fine margin' bisininess, it is very high profile politicaly which will generate mega noise in the media. The rational relies on AV being able to upsell other products to the DLG customer base.
Also the cost to us, could well be a reduction in dividend growth in 2025 from 7% to 5%, as I suspect there may well not be a Share Buyback in 2025 to fund the deal.
Personally I would have rather seen AV flog off their Motor business and buy M&G with the proceeds
I have to wonder if the attraction of DLG to AV is as a defence against a takeover of itself. With 20% of the market, any bid from a company with ANY Motor Insurance exposure would almost certainly be bounced by HMG
If there is a bidder for AV out there, they need to act now |
If Av share price rises from here they will not need to increase bid offer to DLG by much if at all.
Could be win win for both parties |
"Insurers have seen a surge of inquiries from people buying life insurance to provide a lump sum that will cover the cost of an inheritance tax bill. If you get the right amount of cover it could mean that your beneficiaries will not have to sell any assets, such as the family home, to settle the bill when you die. Life cover could also solve the cashflow problems that many families face following a death, especially given delays in the probate system." Times Money |
From the article…
“Deutsche Bank analysts reckoned Aviva could raise its offer to 270p. “Our sense from talking to a wide range of investors is that shareholders of both Aviva and Direct Line are receptive to this deal,” they said.”
“ We’re making excellent progress in the early stages of a significant turnaround…221;. Marking his own homework.
I’m hopeful we’ll see a higher, supported offer.
cyberian. Agree with all your comments. |
From the Sunday Times article I think that the Direct Line CEO has put his foot in it with respect to the comment over his £6 Million bonus after 3 years. Why would the common shareholders who have over 55% in Aviva and DLG want to indulge him and his new team over at least 3/4 years. They will reap a more certain return accepting Aviva's offer in my opinion. Personally think a slight increase to 270p would be more than acceptable and see no point in overpaying.Again Ageas and others entering the bid for DLG would not gain any rationalization over cost savings. |
The article :- |
Sunday Times "Direct line boss hits out at Aviva bid"
Echo's previous view of opportunistic.
Sir Peter Wood said raising offer 10% would be "fair result"
Pandora "raising offer to 270p would be acceptable to both Aviva and DLG holders.
My view is market is receptive to this takeover even at c270p and we may see Av share price climbing after deal there by benefiting current DLG and Av holders. |
Direct Line founder Sir Peter Wood says Aviva must raise its offer
Updated 21:50, 30 Nov 2024
By ALEX BRUMMER CITY EDITOR
Amanda Blanc needs to raise her bid for insurer Direct Line by 'several hundred million pounds' if the Aviva boss is to secure control of its rival, founder Sir Peter Wood says.
Speaking to The Mail on Sunday from his Palm Beach mansion in Florida, near to Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago, he also expressed frustration at Direct Line losing its way.
'I made it the world's most efficient insurance company', he said, describing how he eliminated the middleman in the form of the insurance broker.
'It's sad it's been run so badly. After I left, the HR department multiplied ten times. It didn't develop a female brand, multi-car or multi-family policies, and just seemed to go backwards.' Wood says staying off comparison websites was a mistake, adding: 'They should have made Direct Line a premier product, where people answer the phone immediately and you got an individual giving you personal attention.'
He expressed sympathy for chief executive Adam Winslow's effort to turn it around, saying: 'He is trying to do a good job, but it's a three or four year job.'
On Thursday, Direct Line rejected Aviva's £3.3 billion bid, whereby shareholders would receive £1.12p a share in cash and 0.28 of a new Aviva share for every Direct Line share held. |
Me neither Pander. I'm paranoid that AV will be sucked into a bidding war & caution against DLG overpricing itself. It's only worth the sum of its parts (synergies aside). spud |
Not sure about this one. Getting sucked in is a tangible threat. Direct line is a "has been" 80s business model that has not moved well with the times. |
The Belgium company Ageas would not have the same synergy that Aviva has to provide adequate cost savings and investment benefit and as stated by others their share price would fall accordingly. Again Ageas paper would also not be as attractive compared to Aviva. |
Another 10% on the bid is worth about £350m.
Not a large amount spread over the years after synergies.
AV may be prepared to go a little higher.
Odd position for DLG holders.
Because some of the bid is in Aviva shares, accepting a lower bid would give AV. shares a boost.
Much to ponder for both parties. |
The Belgians share price has improved because they dropped their bid for dlg.
If they re-engage, their price will drop again, and possibly by more if they get into a bidding war with Av. |
Failed Belgian offer must have hissed of many DLG holders. Seeing share price drop from 230p ish to near 150p must have hurt.
I suspect they won't want to miss this opportunity and will back Av t/o.
If I was CEO of DLG I would encourage Belgians to comeback and show interest.
Belgian offer is currently better for DLG as their share price has gone up.
Pleased that our share price hasn't moved , can only presume market thinks there is value here even with t/o |
Agreed! Far too easy to be lured into a bidding war. I'd also say 300p is more than borderline and would largely defeat the object of buying the Company in the first place.spud |
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