Avis Europe Share Discussion Threads

[m4m] 19/12/2005 16:37

Thanks for the info Gerry tho I'm gonna stick to my trading discipline of letting the trailing stop loss tell me when to sell. It'll mean I lose some gains as I'll never sell at the top but hopefully win more in the long run. I used to be a screen watcher and lost out thru being 'sucked out' with the intraday movements of stocks etc and realised I would have gained more by sticking with 'em. I'm not really a fundies player albeit I know that in the long term fundamentals will obviously win. Support, resistance and MA's are what I mainly use for long or short.


15th December 2005
Avis Europe plc Pre-Close Update

Avis Europe plc, a leading car rental company in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia, gives the following trading update ahead of its closed period.

The Group's expectations for underlying profit before tax for the year ending 31st December 2005 remain unchanged. Revenue trends have improved in the second half to date and are ahead of prior year, principally due to good volume growth in the Leisure segment during the summer months. Revenue per day has strengthened slightly in the period, but remains below prior year.

In the Leisure segment intra-European volumes have been stronger, particularly in Italy and France. Revenue in the Premium segment is broadly unchanged on prior year, but with some improvement in the second half. Corporate revenues have benefited from a small improvement in volume in the second half to date, although this has been offset by continued pressure on pricing. Replacement revenues remain below prior year.

As part of the previously announced recovery strategy, the Group will incur certain initial exceptional costs in 2005 in order to accelerate the benefits resulting from the transfer of back-office activities to the shared service centre in Budapest and generate further efficiencies from a focus on support processes. These costs will be in addition to those exceptional items previously advised that relate to the existing programme of shared service centre transfers, expenses arising from the rights issue in July and mitigating costs following the termination of the IT back office project last year.

Whilst trading expectations for next year are unchanged, the Group expects net interest to increase by between €7m and €10m, as a result of higher market rates, together with increased margins on expected new financings.

Murray Hennessy, Avis Europe Chief Executive, said:
"Despite continued competitive market conditions, our trading expectations for the current year remain unchanged. The recovery strategy is on track and I am pleased with the progress we are making. The initial benefits are beginning to flow through leading to the expected margin improvement next year, although this will now be largely offset by a higher than anticipated interest cost."

Enquiries:
Murray Hennessy, Chief Executive 01344 426644
Martyn Smith, Group Finance Director
Susan Gilchrist/Chris Blundell, Brunswick 020 7404 5959





Holding(s) in Company

RNS Number:8568V
Avis Europe PLC
19 December 2005



19 December 2005

Avis Europe plc ("the Company")

The Board of Directors of Avis Europe plc received notification on 16 December 2005, pursuant to sections 198 - 202 of the Companies Act 1985, that Fidelity International Limited (FIL) and its direct and indirect subsidiaries, being non-beneficial holders, now hold 106,072,316 ordinary shares in the Company representing 11.52% of its issued ordinary share capital.

Enquiries:

Judith Nicholson
Company Secretary
Tel: [phone]

[gerry321] 16/12/2005 22:58

M4

Franklin are starting to unload ave

I got out at 64p with a nice profit but not as big as you may be sitting on

you may wish to consider getting out too.........

[m4m] 15/12/2005 12:35

Well I'm still in .....JUST ;)
(It keeps nudging my trailing stop loss)

[m4m] 12/12/2005 12:34

No as 74.5 is strong resistence ahead of trading statement

Date .....Open .High .Low .Close Volume Adj Close*
9-Dec-05 73.50 75.00 73.00 73.25 706,570 73.25
8-Dec-05 74.00 74.50 73.00 73.75 5,138,075 73.75
7-Dec-05 75.00 75.00 73.50 73.50 2,841,036 73.50
6-Dec-05 72.25 75.50 72.25 73.50 2,463,563 73.50
5-Dec-05 69.00 76.00 69.00 74.50 1,749,673 74.50

[gerry321] 11/12/2005 22:53

mat
suggest you get out before the 16 dec trading statement if you are in profit
I reckon there is little chance the ave share price will climb much above 75p since we are now in the region of break even for the big investors holding 25% of the free market stock for over 2yrs
ie any move by them to get out will cause a catastrophic fall in the share price .....

having said that .....I got out at 64p on the same rationale.........so maybe holding on will be the best strategy.......

[matthu] 05/12/2005 18:33

Last year the share price fell from 64p to 50p in the two weeks leading up to the trading statement in mid December (16th). So will it be just as interesting to monitor share price movement in the next 10 days?

[m4m] 05/12/2005 16:31

Above 74.5 today but not able to hold it

EDIT - After final trades went through it closed on 74.5 so based on that my trailing stoploss has been moved up to 66.5 which is the 50day MA. I'm now using this MA rather than the 200 to tell me when to bank profits.

Can it breakout tomorrow ?

[m4m] 05/12/2005 12:55

A push up above 74.5 ahead of trading statement ?

Higher vol on friday ( 6,461,404 ) compared to av.

I note car rentals firms came in for heavy criticism last week but then nobody is surprised are they !

Car rental companies have been criticised for making unfair charges and offering confusing contracts.

[gerry321] 17/11/2005 11:45

Allowing for the rights issue
The big shareholders Fidelity and Templeton averaged around 65p for their current holdings....
On a similar basis
Dieteren stake cost them around 430m to 500m ie around 80p/share
If current mgt can evidence signs of a turnaround in their 16 Dec statment.......
At 30% bid premium
D`Ieteren definitely won`t sell below 100p
If current mgt don`t evidence signs of a turnaround in their 16 Dec statment.......
D`Ieteren will surely sell at 80p...
Happy Days...imho

[chirpy chappy] 17/11/2005 09:25

Well, we are back to where it was in April-May 05 where the price turned down, are we going to see the same happen again or is it going to break on upwards, it has had a nice run so far so I bet it will stall around this price or even drift down but time will tell :-)

[m4m] 14/11/2005 12:26

Did I say longer time frame ? ...it got to 3p from my target today so I reckon I'll let the trailing stop decide when I sell. I've now raised it to 61 (based on 200 day M.A. close of 69.5)

[m4m] 09/11/2005 17:14

Must be honest and say I invest by the charts more than the fundies.

As long as we stay in this up trend I'm staying in long.

My trailing stop loss is currently set at 60 (200 day moving av close) as I have a longer time frame for this one.

Holding(s) in Company

RNS Number:4067V
Avis Europe PLC
09 December 2005







9 December 2005

Avis Europe plc ("the Company")

The Board of Directors of Avis Europe plc received notification on 8 December
2005, pursuant to sections 198 - 202 of the Companies Act 1985, that Franklin
Resources, Inc. and its affiliates, which includes Franklin Mutual Advisers LLC
and Templeton Worldwide, Inc. and its affiliates, now hold 55,014,662 ordinary
shares in the Company representing 5.9765% of its issued ordinary share capital.


Enquiries:
Judith Nicholson
Company Secretary
Tel: [phone]

[optimist] 08/11/2005 12:31

cbrown

Are you looking at the pre rights issue balance sheet?

[cbrown] 07/11/2005 23:39

Just looked at the performance of this company (poor) and its balance sheet(assets minus liabilities = -£12M) so if anyone is thinking of taking them over they might want to pay well below the current share price in my opinion.

Only just started looking at this share today and have no position in it yet.

But am I missing something else that is obvious because at face value the share price looks very high?

Thanks for your help.

[m4m] 07/11/2005 15:21

A strong positive close would be nice

[entj] 07/11/2005 11:29

That's more like it!
Here's hoping we'll see some blue now

[davocon] 07/11/2005 10:58

Some lucky beggar got to buy at 64!

[entj] 07/11/2005 10:54

Seems to be at Auction now

[entj] 07/11/2005 10:37

Thanks, Iulia, fair point.

I'm puzzled by the huge spread.
AVE normally trades on a lowish spread.

Level 2 is showing about twice as many Sell orders as Buy orders with a much higher sell volume too. But only 13,320 traded so far.
It has the feel of MMs waiting for something to happen.
Could it just be waiting for USA to open?
Or something more?

[iulia] 07/11/2005 10:00

One possibility is that an inexperienced shareholder put a "sell at market price" order last night, and one ruthless broker took the opportunity to fleece him. It's not unusual to see silly trades at the open. If this is the case, then the next few trades would bring the price back into range.

[entj] 07/11/2005 09:57

What's going on today?
SP seems to be all over the place.

[gerry321] 03/11/2005 17:14

Cendant have announced the demerger of Avis Inc which has failed to impressUS Analysts
Following the Herz sale there were some disappointed bidders in the US.......

I would be amazed if these guys are not looking seriously at buying Avis Inc and are already in discussions with Cendant
However with any bid approach.....
Cendant would have to decide if outright sale of Avis Inc provides a better return to CD shareholders than demerger........
Either way Cendant surely have to comment (hopefully in the next few weeks) that sale of Avis Inc instead of demerger is now a possibility
or
Rumours of a sale are just speculation and demerger remains the preferred route to increasing shareholder value
Since stage 2 of any bid for Avis Inc would almost certainly be purchase of Ave from D`Ieteren any prospective Avis Inc bidder would concurrently have to sound out D`Ieteren on at least the principle if not the price of a possible sale

An announcement of Avis Inc bid discussions from Cendant would have a significant impact on the Ave sp
Meanwhile it is quite interesting that most of the trades in ave seem to take place after Wall St opens

Hopefully we are heading for the Ave end game with an encouraging 16 Dec trading update overshadowed by Cendant confirming speculation across the pond of an Avis Inc sale

[m4m] 03/11/2005 11:52

lol Gerry - I would have been very surprised if it had of been ;)

[gerry321] 31/10/2005 19:28

M4
......surname not a Robinson

[entj] 31/10/2005 16:25

definitely something interesting in the background today