Avis Europe Share Discussion Threads

[gerry321] 10/10/2005 15:52

yam
next meaningful event is mid Dec trading update
D`Ieteren promised in June rights statement not to sell their 58% stake before end Dec
The Dec trading statement ought to herald a jump in the sp

Why ?

good trading news + D`Ieteren saying nothing about a possible sale of Ave
.........is good for the sp
Or
bad trading news + D`Ieteren either indicating talks about a possible sale of Ave or saying nothing and appearing to be retreating from their July statement .......is good for the sp
Target sale price could be +30% of current value and perhaps more if trading news is upbeat
ie 70p to 90p tops

[yam114] 10/10/2005 13:18

nice steady rise today, anyone have a price target on this?

[yam114] 05/10/2005 13:48

good yeild 6.27%

[snaptastic] 30/9/2005 19:00

its was a hard decision to sell but i wanted to put some short term funds into PRTY as i feel the value they offer rarely comes around often... looking at the charts, i will be a buyer again at 58 on the bid... either way, i feel that 1 month from now we will be higher than today.. good luck all...

[gerry321] 30/9/2005 16:59

Finally cracked as profit peaked and sold 90% of my holding at 64p
...Can`t lose now even if shares fell to zero
Still think ave will hit 90p in next 12m
......however with poorer profit performance than Hertz..... Avis will be hard pushed to be sold at much more than 75p when D`Ieteren`s rights issue promise not to sell expires on 31 Dec.....

Thanks for all the info ...Snap, m4m and especially Ash
Moving on to CASH if anybody`s interested

[yam114] 30/9/2005 12:58

just tiped on CNBC by Hugh hendry. limited down side had it's bear market, good brand.
anyone else see the lunch time program?

[snaptastic] 30/9/2005 11:56

the profit has gotten the better of me, sold 125,000 shares over the past 2 days... last lot just now at 64p.. have a feeling we may test 60 again before be break and close above 65 (from the 6 month charts).. may be wrong though.. will be back in on profit taking if it happens..

[m4m] 29/9/2005 20:31

Aye 75 is my target (high 16 May 05)

[gerry321] 27/9/2005 19:43

Snap
Keep up the optimistic comments.........they could be influencing the market imho

[snaptastic] 26/9/2005 14:06

some nice buys gone through today....

think next key levels will be 64p then 73p.

[mr ashley james] 24/9/2005 20:19

Gerry,

Thanks and pleased to see the Bulls doing do well in LSE:AVE, you may have noticed I am quite keen on stocks beginning with "A" recent calls LSE:ADN Aberdeen Asset Mgt Plc and LSE:AQP Aquarius Platinum Plc

Also African Copper Plc LSE:ACU Anglo Asian Mining Plc LSE:AAZ, Antrim Energy Inc LSE:AEY TSE:AEN Adastra Minerals Limited LSE:AAA TSE:AAA, Avocet Mining Plc LSE:AVM

Also just pointed out that Platinum Australia Limited ASX:PLA should list AIM LSE:APL

Hope you are enjoying your weekend.

Cheers

Ash:)

[snaptastic] 23/9/2005 16:42

its a relief to see that the buyer is still in the market, over 100k bought at 60.25 plus a steady buy bot running much of the day.. nice steady rise in the afternoon for the past 2 days. US source imho... any seller can just sell on the offer quite easily as long as the size isnt massive... 70-71p area will do me for profits.... :)

[gerry321] 23/9/2005 15:37

Ashley`s Prediction on 9 Sept



Wave V IMHO 54.75p to 62.75p = + 8.00p
Wave A IMHO 62.75p to 58.50p = - 4.25p
A of B back to 63.25p = + 4.75p
B of B back to 61.50p = - 1.75p
C of B Impulse to 71.25p = + 9.75p


Actual share price Movement


Open High Low Close Vol Adj Close
22-Sep-05 59.75 60.25 58.5 60.25 937476 60.25
21-Sep-05 63 63 60.25 60.25 3,241,818 60.25
20-Sep-05 61 61.5 60.25 61.5 1,286,521 61.5
19-Sep-05 57.5 61.25 57.5 61 1,405,704 61
16-Sep-05 56.25 58 55.25 57.75 1,524,209 57.75
15-Sep-05 58.25 58.5 57 58 516,227 58
14-Sep-05 57.75 59.5 57.75 58.5 4,025,418 58.5
13-Sep-05 54.75 57.25 54.75 57.25 3,098,145 57.25
12-Sep-05 57 57 56 56 1,268,920 56
09-Sep-05 55.5 57 54.75 57 1,636,215 57





I.E
12 Sept to 14 Sept 57p to 59.5p = + 2.5p
14 Sept to 16 Sept 59.5p to 58p = - 1.5p
16 Sept to 21 Sept 58p to 62p = + 4p
( gnoring one off rogue trades)


That`s pretty good forecasting Ash !

[snaptastic] 22/9/2005 21:33

looks like we have had some profit taking over the past 24hrs. The trades this pm were very encouraging though, almost all buys soaking up the sell orders on the book. hope we can hold onto this level tomorrow because we have started to build an upward channel on the charts..

[gerry321] 21/9/2005 18:15

Snap
I hope youre hunch is right about maybe a USA hedge fund buying into Ave
However you have to remember that the avis website in mid year was indicating that around 95% of Ave was in the hands of Institutions

These guys largely stumped up the extra cash for the rights issue
If institutionalownership remains at this level currently
this leaves relatively little free market stock ie around 45- 50m shares despite the rights issue
For a stakebuilder to make a meaningful profit of say £1m on say a 10p price movement he would need to buy 10m shares or around 20% of the free market
Even if you assumed the free market was 200m shares ie 21% of the market the same calculation would mean buying 4% of the free market which is bound to affect the sp
Also to buy 10m shares requires additional share volume(over say 15 days)of
around 660000 shares
Having said that
if the big boys stay out of the market the average volume is around 200000 shares for a 45-50m free market and 800000 for a 200m free market so despite the above any run of days with volume over say 1.5 - 2m shares and irrespective of the size of the trades would confirm your proposition
I suspect there are standing orders on some of the Brokers to hoover up ave shares as low as possible ........The tell tale sign confirming this will be some hefty trades fitted into an approriate bid/offer spread over the next week or so as the Brokers pass on these shares to their principals

[snaptastic] 21/9/2005 14:35

more strong buying in the last couple of hours.. my moneys on an american source to this buying.. may be a speculative hedge fund.. still no disclosure yet though.. lovely double bottom developing now..

[snaptastic] 20/9/2005 12:40

holding onto yesterdays gains today.. looks to me like 65 possible this week before some profit taking kicks in..

[mr ashley james] 19/9/2005 17:17

Gap getting filled, there is a surprise!(;-)0

[gerry321] 19/9/2005 17:11

Snap
Whats the significance of exceeding the 200 day moving average
........apart from the obvious upswing

[snaptastic] 19/9/2005 16:20

we are now above the 200 day moving average! where is everyone???

[snaptastic] 19/9/2005 12:06

looking very stong.. buys at 60p now.. lots earlier at 59.5... we may get to 70p soon at this rate...

[snaptastic] 19/9/2005 10:12

a close above 59.5 today would be very bullish short term imho...looking good today

[gerry321] 16/9/2005 13:18

davocon
Thanks for info
I now understand

[davocon] 16/9/2005 11:14

I was referring to post no. 128 by Ashley, where the opening price was higher than the previous close, creating a gap, which , in my limited understanding tends to be filled at some point.