Avis Europe Share Discussion Threads

[gerry321] 31/10/2005 15:36

Iulia
Hope your right although I must confess I`m only in this stock for 10% of my previous holding after getting out with a good profit at 64p......

[m4m] 31/10/2005 15:35

Gerry

Your surname wouldn't be Robinson would it ?

;)

[iulia] 31/10/2005 15:31

gerry,

I concur with your comments about D'Ieteren's unwillingness to part with AVE, they must have confidence in the turnaround, and with the statement of 16 Dec. being only some six weeks away they must have at least an idea about the figures to be reported, I can see a nice rally in the run up to the results day

[gerry321] 31/10/2005 12:18

The Cendant demerger of 4 businesses has not went down well with US Analysts
One wonders if they could have extracted more value from the Avis Inc business by a straight sale despite not owning Avis Europe..........
Alternatively . ..the CD view may be
Either
....the demerger now enables bid approaches for Avis Inc prior to demerger next summer.... presumably coupled with the same bidder subsequently going after Avis Europe to recreate a global brand
Or

.... the demerger signals failure of CD to secure purchase of AVE (prior to sale of the combined businesses) at an acceptable price from D`Ieteren .......the CD strategy being that the combined Avis businesses would fetch more than the sum of the parts
Suggesting
D`Ieteren are more bullish about an ave turnaround than we might have believed
and hence are quite happy to hold onto their 60% stake meanwhile
This implies a bullish trading statement from ave on 16 Dec
Either way the continued interest by funds in holding and increasing their ave holdings augurs well for the share price in the near term

[gerry321] 26/10/2005 16:59

5754606 changed hands at 64p at 10.36 today
If this was more volume for Fidelity or Templeton we should get a % statement tomorrow
If it isnt
Then
If this is a fund to fund trade
A big boy wants out at a post rights issue profit and a big boy wants in on speculation of a higher sp

And if it is a Broker to Fund trade it looks like another big boy is building up a stake


And
A new stakebuilder buying 5m+ shares from a broker is effectively taking them out of a free market which despite the rights issue is chronically short of stock

[gerry321] 25/10/2005 20:17

Its worth remembering that if Fidelity analysts are worth their big bonuses they must have had some advance inkling in recent months of the Cendant demerger through their New York office ..........
Even if Fidelity did not use this "insider" info to acquire or dispose of Cendant stock there would be nothing to stop them suggesting to their British colleagues that increasing their ave holding would be a perfectly legal and profitable step to take at the current ave sp

[gerry321] 25/10/2005 11:15

Que
I am the author as a long time holder of Ave and retired director of an unrelated blue chip business.........
I`m not following Arla but will have a look and revert on the thread......

[quepassa] 25/10/2005 07:11

Thanks Gerry321. A very good post.

Who is the author please of the Commentary section of your post?

Gerry321, are you following the developments at Arla Foods ( ARU ). Personally, I believe that this is another significant take-over play. See my posts. Any views?

[gerry321] 24/10/2005 19:48

Corporate Announcement 24 Oct 05

CENDANT CORPORATION BOARD OF DIRECTORS ANNOUNCES PLAN TO SEPARATE CENDANT INTO FOUR PUBLICLY OWNED, PURE-PLAY COMPANIES
Creation of Separate Publicly Traded Real Estate, Travel Distribution, Hospitality and Vehicle Rental Companies Intended to Maximize Value for Cendant Shareholders

New Companies Will Have Strong Balance Sheets, Significant Scale, Leading Market Positions and Brands, and World-Class, Experienced Management Teams

Company Reassesses Impact of Recent Trends and Events on Future Results
New York, NY 10-24-2005 -- Thank you for your interest in Cendant Corporation's press release titled "CENDANT CORPORATION BOARD OF DIRECTORS ANNOUNCES PLAN TO SEPARATE CENDANT INTO FOUR PUBLICLY OWNED, PURE-PLAY COMPANIES".

Because the release contains complex tables, you will have to download the release and then view it using Adobe Acrobat. If you already have this software installed on your computer, please click on the link below to download the release. Download time is approximately 1 minute with 33.6 modem.

Download the press release "CENDANT CORPORATION BOARD OF DIRECTORS ANNOUNCES PLAN TO SEPARATE CENDANT INTO FOUR PUBLICLY OWNED, PURE-PLAY COMPANIES"


...............Commentary................

This is a very interesting development for ave shareholders
In April Cendant announced integration of Avis inc into its leisure business
This concept lead to AVE developing closer links with the new Cendant leisure division over the past 6m and presumably a fair proportion of the anticipated uplift of 3 to 5% in gross margin will have been riding on the back of the Cendant linkup This gross margin improvement could now be at risk if Ave lose the comfort of Cendant leaning on the Leisure Division to be "reasonable" with
their Avis brand licencee
Also we now have the prospect of a greatly more independent Avis Inc taking over the Avis Europe brand mgt role handed over to the Leisure Division in April

Strategic Implications for AVE

Either
Avis Inc will swallow up AVE using borrowed funds since the parent plc Cendant will no longer exist
Or
Avis Inc will be a takeover target for venture capitalists possibly those who missed out on the Hertz deal
Or
A combination of the above with stage1 being acquisition of ave by Avis inc followed by sale of a business with an uncluttered global brand
Short term the impact could be a further delay in any bid .......this will mean the share price could depend on the performance of the current ave mgt
I wouldnt be a bit surprised if the former Avis Inc Director on the ave board was to reappear as an advisor to a venture capitalist sniffing around both Avis Inc and Avis Europe

[quepassa] 24/10/2005 08:07

That idea could well have some merit. To recreate Avis as a global operation and brand would make sense - just as we saw with Hilton recently.

Would D'Ieteren sell? Probably at the right price.

[gerry321] 17/10/2005 18:43

Ash
Also into Woolworths
Rationale
.....Not any worse or better business than other high st retailers
except that their share price has fallen the most and is now within 15 - 20% of the net asset value of around 27p ie break up value is attractive
.......Potential bid target ..tesco were muttered at one point although there is little potential for direct synergies
Also
Although the Deutche Bank disposal of 20 % shareholding is now 70% complete it seems to involve an unwillingness to sell below 32p
This disposal has been so huge over the past few months it could only have been absorbed by a series of funds buying up to the 3% limit but remaining just below
Hence
When a further 100m to 150m shares have been traded the share price ought to be reacting more normally which ought to herald a rise
Do you know what the charts are saying Ash ?

[gerry321] 17/10/2005 18:27

Ash
Thanks a million
Ash
Arm are not one of my shares but I`ll have a look at the business fundamentals and revert

Meanwhile

Business (as opposed to financial) fundamentals on both cash and bwng are excellant and suggest no real threat to both short term and long term growth in profitability

Cash
Until recently Cardpoint have stuck to creating real profits organically by actively managing existing outlets ie growing extra products on good outlets and closing unprofitable outlets after a failed turnround period
Meanwhile nearest rivals and lossmaker Moneybox were accumulating outlets willey nilly and ran out of cash........a good example of a badly managed Co
Another rival Co Cardtronic was sold privately to a US bidder
Speculation of a US bidder for Moneybox drove up their share price from mid 2004 to early 2005
In absence of trading update from cash their share price rose in sympathy with Moneybox over same period
Cash trading update in spring was positive
Then in surprise move cash announced agreed acquisition of market leader Moneybox part funded by issuing new shares
Given that they are now market leader and know how to weed out unprofitable outlets, cash ought to be poised for sutainable organic growth and possible future US bid.....The US market has already gone thru consolidation
Downsides are
Some director sold at recent share price peaks do they know aomething we don`t ?
...The acquisition may take longer to turnround
....I`m not sure what the "sp dilution effect" is from the recent share issue
......There seems to be no rationale driving the fluctuation in sp
eg since I got in at 136p cash has moved to 144p down to 110p and back to 144p

Brown N
Well managed profitable catalogue business with major shareholders
Alliance family 139.1m 47.1%
Fidelity Investment Management Ltd 40.4m 13.7%
Invesco Asset Management 19.8m 6.7%
i.e. Large captive shareholding who keep constant pressure on mgt performance


Target niche customers less exposed to economic downturn eg middle aged, outsize etc ...
Have sold off accumulated bad debt and tightened credit to minimise future bad payers
Also sold off other unprofitable businesses
Have growing website sales with low admin costs
Own in house IT Dept.........look at the mess Aviva made thru outsourcing before returning to inhouse
Solid dividend record attractive to the little man


Recent bullish comments re Xmas sales..............how many retailers are saying that at the minute ?

I got in at 106p sold some at 162p bought more at 148p in hope of rise again to 170p +
can`t really understand why the share price drifted down to 133p and then didn`t go straight up to 170p mark after recent announcement which after all was only confirmation of trends visible in mid year
Downsides
If bwng attempt to educate (in IT sense) and migrate their niche customers from catalogues to buying online they may end up up facing severe price competition from other websites...
The Co could go private although this would be presumably at an share price premium

[mr ashley james] 17/10/2005 16:11

Gerry, what else are you looking at?

Any views on LSE:ARM for tomorrow?

[mr ashley james] 17/10/2005 15:40

Gerry,

Cardpoint Plc LSE:CASH I reckon may fill gap to 115p but thereafter possibly run up to 151p IMO



N Brown Group Plc LSE:BWNG I reckon may fill gap to 135p but thereafter possibly run to 174p IMO



No idea of fundamentals on either stock but that is my TA Quick first guess.

BOL

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[gerry321] 17/10/2005 15:25

Ash
Do you mean you are getting back into ave at 65.25p ?
Or just that you are planning to hold on longer than previously anticipated ?
I sold out 90% of my holding at 64p
..........and am now wondering if I should restock

Cheers

ps Have you any info on what the charts are saying about "CASH" aand "BWNG" ?

[mr ashley james] 17/10/2005 14:21

Yam 114,

According to Fundamentals Page still per ADVFN A Dividend Yield of 5.91% even at current price.

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 17/10/2005 13:19

STOCKWATCH D'Ieteren cut to 'neutral' from 'outperform' at KBC Securities

BRUSSELS (AFX) - Car and distribution company D'Ieteren NV has been cut to
'neutral' from 'outperform' at KBC Securities on valuation grounds.
Pascale Weber, D'Ieteren analyst at KBC Securities, said: "D'Ieteren's share
price has risen by 53 pct since the beginning of 2005."
"We are downgrading the stock as the share price is getting close to the
sum-of-the-parts valuation."
The broker raised its target price to 220 eur from 200.
The analyst also said she expects a pause in the recent upward trend in the
share price until troubled rental unit Avis Europe PLC sees an earnings pick-up.
At the beginning of September, D'Ieteren's operating profit excluding
extraordinary items came in at 127.2 mln eur, down from 132 mln in 2004.
The fall was due mainly to the performance of Avis.
D'Ieteren maintained its full-year guidance for pretax profits from ongoing
operations to be broadly in line with last year.
At 9.30 am, D'Ieteren was up 0.6 eur or 0.28 pct at 212.6 eur, while the Bel
20 rose 0.88 points or 0.03 pct to 3,310.14.
[e-mail]
sz/ak


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[mr ashley james] 17/10/2005 13:07

Gerry and Snap,

Gone long Avis Group PLc LSE:AVE again 65.25p



Cheers

Ash:)

[gerry321] 17/10/2005 12:22

Looks like whats going on is a rollover from the Hilton announcement last week

ie the re unification of global brands making perfect sense in the age of the internet.....
ie Cendant reuniting avis inc and avis europe
there could be another jump in ave when Wall St opens

[entj] 17/10/2005 11:38

Hmmm ... spoke to soon!
Put the kybosh on it then.

[entj] 17/10/2005 11:21

Looks like it may sail through 75 now.
I'm tempted to hold for 83 which is the next resistance level.

[m4m] 17/10/2005 11:16

The old takeover rumours ?

I'm staying in until at least 75

[entj] 17/10/2005 10:30

Woss goin on with AVE?
Nice rise on Friday and all over the place today.