Avis Europe Share Discussion Threads

[hybrasil] 16/12/2004 07:47

This again looks like a serious short.

[matthu] 16/12/2004 07:13

Pre-close update:

Lower than expected year-on-year revenue growth.

Early planning assumptions for 2005 are that the current difficult competitive conditions will continue with little upward movement in pricing and continued downward pressure on margins.

No dividend.

[matthu] 15/12/2004 15:06

Seems like the trading volume is largely distorted by three individual trades of 2,051 k, 1,025 k and 1,025 k all transacted at exactly 54.5 p within one minute of each other.

This looks like some sort of redistribution between funds or something?

Apart from that, ADVFN is remarkably inaccurate at classifying trades into buys and sells, for the simple reason that reporting of large trades often gets delayed for several hours by which time the current price could have moved quite considerably.

[8042juwils] 15/12/2004 14:32

lots of buys going through but not helping the price. There isn't usually this volume is there?

[matthu] 14/12/2004 15:37

Doubt Fid is offloading - more likely somebody is shorting.
Giving the directors a good opportunity to rebase their options? ;-)

[biomax] 14/12/2004 15:25

healthy volume, Fid is offloading or what?

[matthu] 13/12/2004 13:59

All of which begs the question why Fidelity have increased their holding to 36,964,844 ordinary shares representing 6.31% of the issued ordinary share capital.

I suspect that these have been lent out and are currently being used to short the company.

[biomax] 13/12/2004 12:57

Matthu
good point, you sound like an accountant,

The fact still remains that their NAV is zero, and probably will go negative next H

Also EPS was 1-3 p, so at PE=10, they should be trading at 10-30 p,
instead of 60p

if you want long, I would go for pet, its a bit speculative but upside is 100-1000%

[matthu] 13/12/2004 12:36

Biomax>

The current asset situation all depends on how you classify fleet which is being returned to manufacturers under a buyback agreement.

Under UK GAAP, fleet vehicles purchased under a buyback agreement are treated as tangible fixed assets, whereas the payment to the manufacturer goes into creditors. This results in an artifically low figure for Net Current Assets. Furthermore, the level of NCA is fairly dependent on the proportion of fleet which has been purchased using a guaranteed buyback agreement.

However under IAS such buyback arrangements which meet the definition of an operating lease will be classified as a current asset. This will improve the reported level of net current assets.

In the current economic environment, I'd expect a high proportion of fleet to have been purchased under a guaranteed buyback agreement. Such agreements are typically 6 months, and since the receivable from the manufacturer is known at the outset, the depreciation on these cars is fairly accurately determined and is more akin to an operating lease charge.

(In fact, under IAS 'depreciation' on buyback cars will be reported as an operating lease charge and not as depreciation.)

[biomax] 13/12/2004 11:18

lots of debt, including worsening current assets (negative)

Ave assets against debt are cars, which depreciate at rate 20% per year,
amasingly Ave still pais divi, but I expect it wont last

[matthu] 10/12/2004 12:08

Biomax - can you expand on your sell comment in the light of Fidelity increasing their holding in Avis recently?

[biomax] 10/12/2004 12:01

strong sell!

[its serene moreton] 21/11/2004 19:07

ITS TIME TO START VOTING! HTD POSTER OF THE YEAR 2004. CATEGORY: 'MOST ENTERTAINING POSTER OF 2004' THE POLL WILL BE OPEN FOR 48 HOURS. THE HIGHEST SCORING 3 WILL GO THROUGH TO THE GRAND FINAL IN DECEMBER.

[abix47] 20/11/2004 20:56

Indeed, though my name on Liv.tv is wally but what the hell!

lol!

[biomax] 20/10/2004 09:39

10-40 p is written all over, imo

[matthu] 20/10/2004 09:10

LONDON (AFX) - Avis Europe PLC, which has announced plans to terminate its
new enterprise resource planning (ERP) system to cut costs and substantially
reduce its related IT restructuring project, has warned that its second half
will see an additional pretax net exceptional charge of 40-45 mln eur.
However, it said full year pretax profit before exceptional expectations
remain unchanged, although the continued focus on yield throughout the summer
months has resulted in lower revenues, offset by cost efficiencies and lower
interest charge on tight capital management.
The second half charge is in addition to the exceptionals of 3.9 mln eur at
end June, the company said in a statement.
Avis Europe said the reduction in scope of the back-office and IT
restructuring project will result in a write-off of the capitalised expenditure
incurred on developing the system to date and a provision for contract
termination and restructuring costs.
It expects to incur a lower than previously advised project cost of about 14
mln eur over future accounting periods to complete the centralisation of
activities from Avis' major markets into Budapest.
In addition, the previously projected operating margin benefit of around 1
pct will be significantly reduced.

[biomax] 20/10/2004 08:13

wow, the short looks good now!

[matthu] 12/10/2004 23:15

Avis UK trials satnav rental - 1st October 2004

Avis UK is currently trialling an in-car satellite navigation system from Cellhire. Until the end of October Avis UK customers can rent a system as part of their car hire at a discounted rental rate of £8.00 per day, £49.00 for one week's hire, or £150.00 per month.

At present, Avis at London Heathrow is the only station where satellite navigation is available, but any customer booking car rental online at www.avis.co.uk will be able to order the satellite navigation system by clicking on the 'Partner Offers' tab. If the trial is successful, the system will be rolled out to other Avis rental locations.

Questions: Are Avis going to be able to increase their rate per day by offering satellite navigation at this sort of price? Do people pay this sort of price anywhere else in the world?

[matthu] 12/10/2004 18:52

THE UK managing director of car rental giant Avis has announced he is leaving the company at the end of the year.

Michael White has worked for the company for 21 years, the last three as MD. Avis Europe recently announced a pre-tax profits drop from €15.3 to €10.6 million, on turnover up 3% to €548. (Fleet NewsNet, September 16).

[biomax] 12/10/2004 17:33

looks goog now

[biomax] 12/9/2004 08:25

dead cat bounce, strong sell!