Avis Europe Share Discussion Threads

[snaptastic] 07/2/2005 21:35

Brussels shares close higher; D'Ieteren gains on Avis buy rumours UPDATE
(Update with full report)
BRUSSELS (AFX) - Shares closed slightly higher, with car rental and distribution company D'Ieteren leading the index gainers on market rumour of a future takeover bid for Avis Europe (LSE: AVE.L - news) , traders said.
At the close, the Bel 20 ended up 6.39 points or 0.21 pct at 3,073.52.
Shares in D'Ieteren climbed 8 eur or 5.03 pct to 167 eur with a late stock surge after market talk circulated over a potential bid for Avis Europe, traders said.
'It has certainly something to do with that,' said a Delta Lloyd trader.
South Africa's Barloworld has been rumoured to be a potential bidder for the ailing Avis group.
In January this year, majority shareholder D'Ieteren -- with a 60 pct stake in Avis -- reported a 16 pct year-on-year rise in sales and reaffirmed its full year net profit target.


look at the spike in the chart late in the day, something cooking for sure.

[snaptastic] 07/2/2005 19:51

got myself a large bag of these now.... one hell of a gap above now on the charts... the large trades in mid jan may be the tell tale signs that a big short has been covered imho...

[gerry321] 07/2/2005 19:42

Cendant bid rumours in city today

but no announcement

If Cendant do bid then they have worked an absolute flanker on Deleteren by gtting their unwitting cooperation to forcing down the Ave share price since Oct 04
How ??
Heres the speculative analysis
1 Cendant AVE Nominee Director Kevin Sheehy of AVIS helps persuade Deleteren in Oct 04 to support MD Murray Henessy`s decision to abandon AVE ERP system

This costs £30m of which £20m is on Deleteren books
......No doubt Kevin Sheey was concurrently protesting loudly that Cendant have no interest in acquiring AVE
Then
2 when Cendant announce purchase of Ebookers in Nov04 it becomes obvious to Deleteren that ownership of AVE is a must growth synergy for Cendant
3 The possibility of a bid is discussed subject to Cendant acquiring sufficient ave market shares at the currently low price to fund giving Deleteren and the Cendant nominees a decent return for their shares
4 Deleteren agree to tidy the ave books in line with the US valuation regulations
and put a Finance guy on the AVE board to oversee this
5 This involves write downs which generate cancellation of the final divi thus forcing down the AVE price further

After a few cigars over Xmas and New Year..........

6 Cendant Nominees including old faithful Fidelity go after all the sizeable share parcels ..no doubt by going through the Share Register and not the open market
And so
Here we are on 7 Feb 05
Only 20% of AVE shares remain in the free market ..around 119m
Most of the big parcels are gone
..supply & demand will force up the balance of AVE shares to around the level during Feb ...thre is little prospect of the price falling given the shortage of shares
The bid will probably be announced concurrent with the Deleteren year end results in late Feb 05

[ards] 07/2/2005 19:33

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Takeover talk is all the rage it seems, with Avis Europe clocking up strong gains on the back of speculation that US peer Cendant may be running a rule over the car rental firm.

Cendant is due to publish figures later today and the market hopes that it may be interested in expanding across the Atlantic.

[gerry321] 07/2/2005 13:10

Thanks Rawly
See my previous post No 144
Re ave price hike to 59.25p at 1245 today for only 1.8m trades none of which exceed 100,000 shares
This seems to confirm the theory that around 80% min of ave stock is now in the hands of a few big players who are holding at the minute
WHY ???
Something must be going on
The size of the deals so far today suggest that most of the big parcels for sale have now gone and it will be more costly from now on for a big player to acquire his next tranche
Next move should be a widening of the spread as the little deals chase up the price in a market with little "free" stock
...the classic supply and demand curve
Lovely Jubbly

[countback] 07/2/2005 13:03

Why am I in this. No news but up +15% today?

[rawly] 07/2/2005 13:00

Gerry321 I think it's 3%

[countback] 07/2/2005 12:57

Why am I in this stock? No news just up 11%+ today?

[targatarga] 07/2/2005 12:30

looks like an announcement could be coming. regards

[snaptastic] 07/2/2005 11:04

something cooking

[gerry321] 04/2/2005 19:36

re my previous post No 139.....
Since 4 Jan 05 53m ave shares have changed hands in parcels greater than 200,000

of this total .....47m have been in parcels of over 400,000

Lets assumes that the buyers of these parcels have not resold them since 4 Jan

And
allowing for the 4.7m needed to bring Fidelity up to 41.6m admitted in their 18 Jan statement .... this leaves 47m of biggish deals with no clue yet as to the buyers
Now 47m is around 8 % of the entire Co which is 72% owned already
by Deleteren Fidelity and Templeton
So far neither Deleteren nor Templeton have admitted changing their holding like Fidelity have done
So...... if you exclude the 72% owned by the big 3
...........this means around 47m or 28% of the "free" ave shares in bundles of 200,000 + have changed hands since 4 Jan 05 with barely a ripple in the share price


Hence there must be 3 or 4 stockholders out there who have acquired around 2% each of the entire business either for themselves or on behalf of a 3rd party

the alternative is that there are now 20 or 30 stakebuilders with at least 1m newly acquired shares
this doesn`t add up without a major movement in the market price


Could there be something going on...........??

Is their a flaw in this logic ??
Does anyone know what % of ownership requires the buyer to go public ??
Also
Does anybody know if you can identify a Broker by the code allocated to a deal?

[snaptastic] 04/2/2005 15:40

no but looking good today...

[bigbadger] 03/2/2005 08:23

anyone knows when in february they are announcing their preliminary result?

[snaptastic] 02/2/2005 16:55

creeping up nicely without drawing attention... some nice buys today... with all the bid mania of late i think it only a matter of time until someone starts a rumour in the city.. whether it would come to anything is another question...

[snaptastic] 01/2/2005 23:30

gone long today at 50.25... DMA price... helped me to avoid the spread.. here's hoping...

[raven] 01/2/2005 22:30

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Kean We Love YOU!!!

LOL!!!!!!!!!! 10 f*"!in men at HOME

Kean We Love YOU!!!

LOL!!!!!!!!!! 10 f*"!in men at HOME

Kean We Love YOU!!!

LOL!!!!!!!!!! 10 f*"!in men at HOME

Kean We Love YOU!!!

LOL!!!!!!!!!! 10 f*"!in men at HOME

Kean We Love YOU!!!

LOL!!!!!!!!!! 10 f*"!in men at HOME

[gerry321] 01/2/2005 00:07

Re my previou post No 130
Who bought around 20.9m shares by some sort of agreed placement on 13 Jan Fidelity are only owning up to around 5m to take their holding up to 7.11% or
41.6m,This leaves around 16m unaccounted for and not reported as a significant holding under RNS
Interestingly since 4 Jan 05 around 47m shares ( ie 8% of AVE )have changed hands in the size of bundles favoured by the big boys ie 200000+
Yet only Fidelity have owned up to any change in their holding and this is just 5m shares
ie excluding D`leteren Fidelity and Templeton who account for 71% of ave
there are now large holdings since 4 Jan accounting for a further 7.9%
???

[blackbear] 31/1/2005 22:33

snap thanx for your feedback

Last time i looked at this was in 2002 shorting from 180p to 120 ish but thats long ago history , i am a bit of a bottom fisher as they say so the market cap caught my attention , they do have time to sort out the debt that was my bullish part of my post , you seem to trade in a simalar way to me and dont blame you for a short term trade , the very short term chart is the second point that caught my eye , ill look at more detail.
be back later.

bb.

[matthu] 31/1/2005 22:07

There won't be any bid in the short term, IMHO, because the shares are so tightly held and D'ieteren have made it clear that they are happy to allow AE to invest money in improving their systems and strategy.

[snaptastic] 31/1/2005 21:42

blackbear... the debt on the balance sheet just reflects the value of the cars on the forecourt... the brand name of avis itself has to have a fair amount of value.... many poeple have been shorting these from around the 100p level.. we are now at 50p which is a 50% retracement and looks to me to be showing good support... any sign of some upside and the shorters will squeal and clamber to cover so we could very quickly get some good short term upside... i would also not rule out a bid.. avis is a global brand that i feel may become appealing at current valuations.. the worst is in the past imho... venture capitalists could extract much better value in these imho by better advertising and trying to introduce additional revenue streams... the fact that it looks so bad on paper is a great reason to buy for me... M&A activity has never been so high so gotta be worth a punt with a stop at 45 area... struggling to find much out about their propertys... leasehold or freehold or mix?

[blackbear] 31/1/2005 20:28

Just browsing myself , looks like a disaster zone at first glance , but maturity on debt it mostly 2007-2010 could a new managemant make the debt repayable? have to wait and see i guess , not for me right now.

[snaptastic] 31/1/2005 20:01

been looking at the trades today.. some nice buying going on unnnoticed... going long tomorrow.... gonna look more closely at the accounts and the debt... avis property owned or leased...

[matthu] 30/1/2005 22:11

I'm watching - but I don't see any rapid turnaround just yet. (See my post 127.)

[snaptastic] 30/1/2005 19:35

tempted to nibble now.. dropped to 47 on monday but bounced back.. there are buyers out there on weakness.. anyone else watching these or just me??

[snaptastic] 22/1/2005 16:20

Fidelity still adding to position as price falls. 7% now, was 3% last April.. worth watching volumes for a reversal imho..