Avesco Share Discussion Threads

[typo56] 08/5/2013 16:01

"investors expect companies to be ahead of the game, not behind it"

AVS haven't exactly been ahead of the game when it comes to announcing progress on the Disney litigation - history shows news appears here before AVS get around to drafting an RNS.

[zoomydoo] 08/5/2013 15:42

Taken from Disney Results 7th May


The prior-year quarter and six-month period consists of the UTV Gain ($184 million). The current six-month period includes the Celador litigation charge ($321 million), partially offset by the gain on the sale of our interest in ESPN STAR Sports ($219 million).
(2)
Our share of expense associated with an equity redemption at Hulu LLC ($55 million).
(3)
Charges for the current quarter and six-month period totaled $61 million, primarily for severance costs. Charges for the prior-year quarter and six-month period totaled $38 million and $44 million, respectively, primarily for severance costs.
(4)
May not equal the sum of the rows due to rounding.

Free cash flow – The Company uses free cash flow (cash provided by operations less investments in parks, resorts and other property), among other measures, to evaluate the ability of its operations to generate cash that is available for purposes other than capital expenditures. Management believes that information about free cash flow provides investors with an important perspective on the cash available to service debt, make strategic acquisitions and investments and pay dividends or repurchase shares.

Aggregate segment operating income – The Company evaluates the performance of its operating segments based on segment operating income, and management uses aggregate segment operating income as a measure of the performance of operating businesses separate from non-operating factors. The Company believes that information about aggregate segment operating income assists investors by allowing them to evaluate changes in the operating results of the Company's portfolio of businesses separate from non-operational factors that affect net income, thus providing separate insight into both operations and the other factors that affect reported results.

[quepassa] 08/5/2013 15:35

Fully au fait with the history of this company, thank you.

[funchalman] 08/5/2013 13:45

QuePassa.The Disney goose was finally cooked 4th dec 2012,there was no way the money was not coming to celador/avesco,the three appeal judges in their ruling did not leave Disney any hope of reversing the verdict.their en banc review was frivolous and an appeal to the supreme court never looked on.so from 4th dec. avesco have known they will receive $60 million.in my opinion they have had ample time to know exactly what they are going to do.we as investors expect companies to be ahead of the game,not behind it.obviously avesco cannot announce anything until the money is actually in their bank.not long now I feel.

all the above is my opinion only.dyor.

regards

[quepassa] 08/5/2013 10:21

A short while ago Avesco were still consulting on the best ways to minimise tax for their own and shareholders' sakes. Which is naturally the wise thing to do.

Tax and tax advice advice can be complicated as we all know. Especially when proceeds are being received from foreign jurisdictions. - This is why , from my personal point of view, it's fine by me if it takes them a little longer to get it right.

Can you please explain/confirm/clarify your statement how you are sure

"Avesco know exactly how they are going to distribute it"

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[funchalman] 08/5/2013 10:10

QuePassa, I am sure Avesco know exactly how they are going to distribute it,and roughly how much per shareholder , the only unknown being the exchange rate at the time it actually goes into its bank account.

[quepassa] 08/5/2013 09:08

1. I think that all we need now is a prompt notification of moneys recieved by Avesco. - This is important news which the market is waiting for.

2. If it subsequently takes Avesco a little longer to figure out the most advantageous / tax-efficient way to downstream the proceeds to shareholders as promised, that's fine by me.


ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[funchalman] 08/5/2013 08:31

third quarter means the money was sent from Disney anytime in april upto yesterday .avesco get their money via a third party , not sure if that would mean celador or sony pictures who now own the rights to "who wants to be a millionaire",but not the proceeds from the usa court case.either way its just a matter of a small wait before the rns with confirmation of receipt of money and how they are going to pay shareholders.

[quepassa] 08/5/2013 07:19

If Disney paid Celador recently, one would presume/ expect/hope that Celador have equally paid Avesco.

Clarification thereof, or a statement from Avesco confirming receipt of monies from Celador, would be in order.


ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[funchalman] 07/5/2013 23:19

well that's it folks , walt Disney have now paid celador $321 million.following is from disneys results released tonight.


ITEM 1. Legal Proceedings

Celador International Ltd. v. American Broadcasting Companies, Inc. On May 19, 2004, an affiliate of the creator and licensor of the television program, "Who Wants to be a Millionaire," filed an action against the Company and certain of its subsidiaries, including American Broadcasting Companies, Inc. and Buena Vista Television, LLC, alleging it was damaged by defendants improperly engaging in certain intra-company transactions and charging merchandise distribution expenses, resulting in an underpayment to the plaintiff. On July 7, 2010, the jury returned a verdict for breach of contract against certain subsidiaries of the Company, awarding plaintiff damages of $321 million, including agreed upon pre-judgment interest. On December 3, 2012, the Court of Appeals affirmed the judgment against the Company. On December 31, 2012, the Company filed a petition for rehearing en banc, which was denied on February 26, 2013. The Company paid $321 million in satisfaction of the judgment in the third quarter of fiscal 2013.


just a matter of waiting for avesco to get their $60 million.

[alloa2003] 22/4/2013 13:14

I made no comment about any other stocks I may or may not hold and the fact I have made 75% on this investment so far kind of negates the 10% profit arguement. Its been a long haul getting here but it is going in the right direction.

I dont agree with the comment about taking a 10% profit - i.e. running your losers and selling your winners. That is a quick fire way to go bust - look at each stock in its own right and ask yourself the question, "Would I buy this stock today?". If yes, then run it further, if no, get rid and if not sure, keep a close eye on the share price.

Not as simple in practice but the theory is sound.

[stoxx67] 22/4/2013 09:13

Simon Cawkwell

many thanks for your coruscating analysis ...

however, i do not believe the point of selling avesco in preference to anything else in his portfolio was made in alloa2003 initial comment.. much better for you to comment on matters with more "meat on the bones"....

all the best.

[simon cawkwell] 21/4/2013 10:57

stoxx67,

alloa2003's point is subtler than yours and correct. The Lord Rothschild maxim reflects upon the fact that he was told time and again that he had sold too early when subsequent events showed otherwise.

However, consider the man who buys two stocks and sells the 10 per cent profit maker in preference to selling the dullard. 10% is simply not enough to cushion against disappointments elsewhere. So such an investor will go bust (or get poor, if you prefer).

Simon Cawkwell

[alloa2003] 16/4/2013 10:49

Stoxx67

I totally agree - as Lord Rothschild said :-

"The reason I am so rich is because I always sold too early"

[stoxx67] 12/4/2013 17:17

your final paragraph is what you should concentrate on...

only you can decide when to sell your stock... if you have a target for your stock then get out at that point...do not hesitate... no one became poor taking a profit...

[alloa2003] 12/4/2013 08:09

Hi Michael

I agree with some of your comments but no company will be able to swim against the tide of negative sentiment if we have another economic shock. In my opinion European leaders are just treading water at the moment as debts continue to rise further but they will need to address this at some point.

Im not sure I agree with all of your comments about the risk associated with smaller/larger companies but you do make some valid points.

At the end of the day I bought into these about 120p a share and anything over £2.50 would probably make me think about selling but I will make that decision as and if the situation arises.

[michaelmouse] 11/4/2013 18:25

alloa2003 - "There is no doubt that at least some of the Disney payout is factored into the share price" - That's your opinion which I disagree with. Imo, as mentioned in a previous post, Avesco's tangible NAV (pre-Disney payout), it's fundamentals and prospects easily support the current £2.20 share price.

It also amuses me the claptrap about small companies being far riskier than larger companies which is something you have alluded to and is a much repeated mantra by so called financial experts. It's about management and fundamentals. A large company carrying too much debt is far riskier than a small company without any. Common sense surely. Shall we start with Woolworth's move on to HMV, or how about Game group. If that's not enough let's try Lloyd's Bank. What a fantastic investment that was in 2002, gosh how I wish I'd picked them up for £8 a piece!! Far less risky than that little tiddler ASOS -about 3p at the time I think.

As for the "next economic shock", whilst you can never be certain what's around the corner, given the magnitude of the one we experienced in 2009 (from which many economies still haven't truly recovered including ours and the US), I doubt we'll see anything to match that for some considerable time. As I have mentioned on numerous occasions, Avesco actually grew into the teeth of that particular storm and came out stronger. When all world economies do get into full swing then Avesco should prosper even further!!

Incidentally, Richard Murray and Ami Giniger (Avesco's two main players) were picking up more shares at prices between £1.50-£1.60 relatively recently. It's not beyond the bounds of possibilty that once the Disney payout is received they decide the best way to distribute funds to shareholders is to sell the company. The buyer gets a company currently attaining double digit growth, throwing off cash, an enviable client list and potentially £3 worth of net tangible assets. An acquirer could easily pay off all debts with the Disney cash and have sizeable funds left over. How much would a bidder have to pay for all this? £4+ surely?

Of course you're perfectly entitled to your own opinion alloa2003, and good luck with your decisions, but as you can gather I don't believe that we've reached anywhere near full value yet, although I am still making the assumption that the Disney payout won't fall too short of the $60m that they have quoted on several occasions.

Michael.

P.S. Still no news about a replacement CEO. See previous musings below:-





Please note that these are just my thoughts and opinions which may be very wide of the mark. No advice is ever intended or given in any of my posts or blogs.

[alloa2003] 11/4/2013 14:46

There is no doubt that at least some of the Disney payout is factored into the share price - what percentage is anyones guess. I for one would rather see AVS bank the Disney payout before they go after the agency just so that issue is sorted, done and dusted 100%.

I am not for a second saying that AVS look expensive but you have to factor in the risks associated with a small company compared to a larger one (putting the Disney money aside). There are also market risks such as the recent shock we saw in Cyprus - if they can take money from bank deposites in Cyprus there is nothing to stop them doing it anywhere else - fact or fiction, who knows, but yet another factor for markets to take into account.

Sometimes, it is just nice to be sitting there with cash in the bank waiting for the next economic shock - which is only a matter of time. In a steady growth market I wouldnt even consider selling AVS but if you factor in the markets, it is a whole different ball game.

[funchalman] 11/4/2013 13:33

michaelmouse - thanks,i suppose at the end of the day it will be Paul Smiths decision whether to go after wme.personally i hope he does , wme earned millions from disney while its client celador, made,well peanuts.pretty sure a jury will not like the smell of that.

[michaelmouse] 10/4/2013 21:24

funchalman - I did mention William Morris Agency on my blog:-



Here's the link:-



Cheers.
Michael.

[funchalman] 10/4/2013 21:13

well apart from waiting to receive the special dividend,i am also waiting to see if celador will squeeze the pips at wma(now known as wme).the irony here is that i suppose celador could call disney to testify on their behalf as disney has already stated in court that celador had the wrong villain(seems to be little honour among villains when money is at stake).wme's defense seems to be that the people involved with the contract negotiations are no longer at wme , but i cant see that cutting much ice in a court of law.

[salonie] 10/4/2013 21:11

Michaelmouse, that was my thinking to invest some more in Avesco, then when the payout is made cash would be available for other options.

ATB.

[michaelmouse] 10/4/2013 20:33

salonie - Totally agree that any market setback makes Avesco very attractive since the special dividend will give investors cash in the pocket to pick up any subsequent bargains plus you'll still be left holding an under-valued growth stock. Might even choose to re-invest the payout in Avesco.

Michael.

[williemanjaro] 10/4/2013 20:20

Contradiction alert---fair value at £3 a share but anything over £2.50 selling territory........ :^}}