Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[michaelmouse] 10/10/2012 23:08

Just my very brief comments on the results:-



Cheers.
Michael.

[divinausa1] 10/10/2012 22:26

melody9999
10 Oct'12 - 19:39 - 10961 of 10965

Typical AVN director performance. They talk the story up....but then when it comes to hard numbers its all smoke and mirrors.....Then the small director buys to try and bolster the share price .... its all so transparent.
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small?

to much time given to SC here. at the end of the day these will be trading north of £10 in a couple years what it does in the meantiem who cares, unless you intend as the directors have done to pile in at these low levels, let the shorters make their money and have done with them. Advanti will be a great British success story, but the Brits will knock them like they always knock success...

[sg31] 10/10/2012 21:18

I wouldn't trust that T1ps claim. They have previous for fiddling stats.

[dunluce] 10/10/2012 21:07

Melody9999,

Probably best you are out of AVN..... especially as Hylas 2 saw a significant increase in operating capacity not a loss as you seem to have stated...

'Maybe Hylas 2 will reduce in size again, who knows'

[nugacity] 10/10/2012 20:29

t1ps claim ...
"A great track record - Since the foundation of the site in the summer of 2000 to 31st May 2012 across 241 tips, the average gain per tip on t1ps.com was 42.7% with an average holding period per stock of 35 months. This excludes the bid-offer spread and dealing costs but also dividends, which in various cases have been substantial. Of course, the success of individual tips varies, with some having dropped in value, and past performance is no guarantee of future success. But we are working extremely hard to continue to bring members a service offering great value for money!"
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35 months????? This is so ironic .... in 35 months where will AVN be trading?
There will be a lot of miffed long-termers if it is only 42.7% up on £2.95 (to use their price)! Not invested there so cannot access their gorey details.

Did look at SC tweets and did not see AVN mentioned! If he throws enough shares at us he's bound to get the odd one right?

[jeffian] 10/10/2012 19:44

You can strip away all the opinions and froth; as I've said before on several occasions (e.g. 10020 and 10162) this share now stands or falls on one thing - revenue delivery. If the revenues come in as (now - revised!) anticipated, it will prosper; if not...... As I've also said today, I've taken the view that they will and increased my holding.

However, AVN seem to have been the architects of their own misfortune here. In talking about missed forecasts, I had been thinking these were brokers' forecasts and had completely forgotten that in their year-end Trading Update on 11 July they said this -

"Total revenues and operating income for the 12 months to 30 June 2012 are expected to be £17.8m (2011: £6.1m.)"

What were they thinking of?!! To then blithely report £15m and simply say "Our performance was in line with our management expectations for the year" is hard to comprehend, followed by vague talk of "more conservative accounting". At the very least one would have expected to see some attempt to reconcile the two figures with a more detailed explanation of the accounting variations, and ideally one would have expected to see a further RNS prior to the results warning that they had changed the basis of the former guidance. Surely something has gone seriously wrong with their PR here?

[melody9999] 10/10/2012 19:39

Typical AVN director performance. They talk the story up....but then when it comes to hard numbers its all smoke and mirrors.....Then the small director buys to try and bolster the share price .... its all so transparent.

Maybe Hylas 2 will reduce in size again, who knows.

I was out at 337p a couple of weeks ago - no grudges - I took my loss and moved on. But now I am clearing AVN from my watchlist. There is no point watching a company when you have lost trust in the management. AIMHO.

[johncsimpson] 10/10/2012 19:08

Yo phoenix . . .

My favourite tipster pundit - NOT - I wonder what he's got wrong this time?

[malcolmmm] 10/10/2012 18:48

oh dear a profit warning in this sort of market 250p as predicted a few days ago, here we come

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 18:39

not too worried about accounting profit

the cashflow profile hasnt changed

funny - when i read the announcement this morning, i thought it would be an up day

i guess it was because hylas 2 was noted as being 22% bigger - and hence 22% more valuable than previously thought!

[sg31] 10/10/2012 18:27

It would have been useful if they detailed what the headline results would have been before the change in accounting policy. That shouldn't have been too difficult.
Re SC, I hold a long position and will continue to do so. I take about as much notice of his position as he does of mine. In my view he is wrong but if he causes short term volatility he just provides me with a cheap opportunity to buy more stock.
Not the greatest update ever but H2 is only just coming into commercial use. Give it time.

PS . I'm neither brave nor foolish...

[rwilliams57] 10/10/2012 17:56

one thing I do think is that in the short term at least it's a brave (or foolish) investor who holds a long position when SC is clear on the reasons for his short. Clear in his mind at least, he sometimes shorts on a whim. This is not one of those occasions

[zho] 10/10/2012 17:49

Lower down the market, Avanti Communications came down to earth, losing 65p to 283.75p or nearly 19% after the satellite operator's full year results fell short of expectations. Its revenues more than doubled but losses increased from £12.7m to £16m and it adopted "more conservative accounting treatments" given a move to the full list. Analyst Robert Corden at Charles Stanley said:

The group reported revenues of £12.6m for the year to June 2012 against previous guidance of £17.8m. This shortfall was due to a change of accounting policies on the treatment of certain revenues which will now be recognised over the length of contracts regardless of upfront payment. This change came as a complete surprise to the market and led us to the comment of poor communication.

Our preliminary thoughts are that there remains significant upside potential in the share price, but the timing has been very substantially delayed.

[piadda] 10/10/2012 17:30

Deja vu?

Last time proved a great opportunity to average down for LTHs so maybe win win.

[sg31] 10/10/2012 17:28

By the end of 2014 HYLAS 1 will be almost sold out but it is tiny compared to HYLAS 2 which in turn is tiny when compared to HYLAS 3.

Check you facts Tom H3 is smaller than H2.

[nugacity] 10/10/2012 17:23

230* TW at least gives his reasoning .... "estimates from house broker Cenkos of a profit of £2.1m " but shown as a £5.3m loss for reasons given!

Investors are so fickle what would that £2.1m profit have changed today?

Still reading his article ... a pleasure compared to others who feel things in their water!

Thanks for the link Arizona.

[2350220] 10/10/2012 16:45

Phoenix,
Sadly Tom W has fallen out of favour, in my eyes at least. So I can't take what he says too seriously these days.
I say that he's fallen out of favour, not because of Avanti, but because of a raft of other stuff such as Athol, Rivington St, Worship St etc etc.
Some of my holdings lost 90% and I daresay others have lsot too.

So I doubt that many on here will be comforted by his outlook.

Just wish I'd closed my Spreadbets when they were a few grand to the good!

John

[backmarker] 10/10/2012 16:31

zooshare,

some neat footwork going on. I suspect the pros are trying to take out stops and pick up some cheap stock. on the face of it there are far more buys than sells, but I have seen this before where the share price falls even though there is far more volume apparently on the buy side.

[lazyj] 10/10/2012 16:14

Avanti Communications Group plc has announced that its Ka-band satellite HYLAS 2 is now fully operational with all beams fully functioning and - for the first time - providing coverage to hundreds of millions of people across Africa, Caucasia and the Middle East.



David Williams, Avanti's Chief Executive said: "We are delighted to have moved from launch through testing to full operation. No other Ka-band satellite is able to deliver the complete coverage that we are providing across the region and we are immensely proud of what we have been able to achieve which will make a huge impact across these regions."



HYLAS 2 carries 24 active Ka-band user beams and six gateway beams providing two-way communications services to facilitate high-speed delivery of data to end-user applications such as corporate networking, IP Trunking, cellular backhaul, broadband Internet access, business continuity services and video distribution.



Using the HYLAS 2 spacecraft, Avanti provides its data and video services to Northern and Southern Africa, the Caucasus, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. In addition, the spacecraft is equipped with a steerable spot beam, also operating at Ka-band, which can provide coverage anywhere on Earth that is visible to the satellite.



David Williams, added: "Our services are critically important to the development of emerging markets such as Africa and the Middle East particularly in terms of full broadband connectivity.



For example, HYLAS 2, and its sister satellite HYLAS 3, due in 2015, will bring an additional 100 Gigabits of capacity to Africa, increasing international capacity in the region by a significant 25%.



"Telecommunications services delivered by the new generation of Ka-band satellites such as HYLAS 2 will play a vital role in bridging the digital divide in African economies and deliver broadband access to millions of potential users who have previously been disenfranchised."



"Satellite broadband is a proven enabler for business growth. Governments and NGOs will be able to deliver public services such as education and healthcare to wider populations at lower cost, and industry and commerce located away from fixed line infrastructure, such as agriculture and mining, will also benefit."

[johncsimpson] 10/10/2012 16:04

Restassured has been red carded . . .

Should be a lesson to all those who upload unpleasant and vulgar posts. Volvo complaint not been acted on for some reason. Need to follow it up.

[superg1] 10/10/2012 15:41

Thanks BM

Like SC I look at what's going to happen/ is happening rather than what has happened..

The one you mention made profits last month and weill make more this month. With real contracts in place that could see profits in the 10's of millions with 12 months.

So yes when I look at this share, right now I think what is all the fuss about.

It was first mover, and did have the first KA band up, but there are a host of others up or going up and plenty more to come.

As for FUM many got out over the £1 mark and into IOF between 19 and 22p. menawhile the AVN same old faces keep averaging down from the 700 mark. I don't get it, sorry.

RESTASSURED decided for some unknown reason came over to IOF after 2 years to rattle my cage so I thought I'd take a look.

[zooshare] 10/10/2012 15:38

some smart trading! AT trades to the drag share price down and O trades to buy back without affecting the share price much. buy volume is twice that of the sell, yet we are down 50p. all allowed for by our transparent market!

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 15:33

Yes but now AVN SATS are to satisfy Africa foreseen demand

Which is dubious methinks