Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[2vdm] 10/10/2012 09:05

PHILO124, missed under 300p but topped up at 303p in my SIPP for exactly the same reasons as you.

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 09:03

Cost of rockets going up

How high will they go ?

[johncsimpson] 10/10/2012 09:02

Nugacity 10 Oct'12 - 08:22 - 10826 of 10829

volvo - you have called this perfectly these last 2 days

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Perfectly - last 2 days - how so? Some of you seem to just make stuff up. Can you explain this please? VOLVO's not posted since 5 Oct and that post hardly called it right.

VOLVO - 05 Oct 2012 - 07:25:49 - 10747 of 10832
Just a case of calm down.

Today........

Avanti will also update the market on the launch of service of HYLAS2

News on strong interest, especially military will see the rerating start in earnest.

They took out every stop loss down to 296p yesterday, the market is now clean and AVN can go on.

[johncsimpson] 10/10/2012 09:01

VOLVO 10 Oct'12 - 08:42 - 10832 of 10833

JC bought between 8.05 and 8.07 this morning why?

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I did ask 'exactly' but now you've answered, that doesn't stack up even if you made a number of purchases which in itself would be odd and difficult in such a short period of time.

Also I presume this is in addition to the 68k you reported back in August when the price was much higher.

Sorry to be so pedantic but you've given me so much grief . . .

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 09:01

Cost of rockets going up ?

Sky high ?


Too high to mention ?

[philo124] 10/10/2012 09:00

Bought back in for SIPP, sub £3; now will try to forget about them for 3 years.
(more like 3 minutes).

[superg1] 10/10/2012 08:57

Backmarker

£30m loan payments to add PA to any costs from Dec 12, so many are probably considering that too. Add in costs of sales, running costs, and other matters along with the back end loading, profits look some way off yet.

[piadda] 10/10/2012 08:55

The board seems to be doing little wrong. A 25% increase in capacity is bound to take longer to fill. Having seen the Internet available in quite large north African towns I believe the take up figures. If we were filling the capacity too fast then we would be accused of underpricing.

[scientologyweirdo] 10/10/2012 08:54

liam

yes you are right they can trade when they like but how many US Fund Managers are going to get up specially early in the morning for AVN ?

US includes East Coast and West Coast and thus the time difference could be up to 8 hours so it's still only about 1am in California

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 08:54

buywell2 29 Aug'12 - 12:31 - 296 of 437 edit

Like a lot of shares they rise on anticipation of an event ... then decline after it

Still not convinced re AVN .... could drift till nearer the next rocket

Holding BOR could wipe out 50% of capital on a bad day ... VERY risky

[backmarker] 10/10/2012 08:51

I would imagine the immediate share price movement caught out some traders and stops have been activated. this has been followed by bargainhunters at around 300p. hopefully it will stabilise here and we can move forwards.

clearly the news has good bits and not-so-good bits, whereas we were hoping only for good bits. the detail will need some picking over but for me the 2 bits that stuck out were:
1. revenue below guidance (a caning offence in these markets whatever the
reason);
2. a high cost-of-sales again.

maybe the high cost-of-sales is only in line with what's going on and is reasonable. last time they commented that a lot of it is one-off. as the sales effort is still growing with H-2 now here and you have to make the expenditure ahead of the revenue maybe sales expenditure greater than revenue is acceptable for now. I hope in the full report they break it down into H-1 and H-2 so that it can be seen if the H-1 costs at least have stabilised.

[superg1] 10/10/2012 08:47

Perhaps some missed, the £175m loan payment that kicks in this end (Dec12) and all the way to the back end, 7 years later.

[liam1om] 10/10/2012 08:44

scientologyweirdo - Not a holder here yet, just lurking.

Why would US holders need to wait until the US open?? They can trade any time they like!

[volvo] 10/10/2012 08:42

JC bought between 8.05 and 8.07 this morning why?

scientology you nothing but a little weiner lol.

Remember they (ie, other informed investors) want your shares.

[scientologyweirdo] 10/10/2012 08:36

I imagine a lot of AVN holders may be US funds ? They hate profit warnings and Companies which don't deliver in a 'linear' manner so would wait to see how this reacts once US is open.

[scientologyweirdo] 10/10/2012 08:35

well some people called it right and some didn't


scientologyweirdo
10 Oct'12 - 07:15 - 10805 of 10829 edit

Is this a profit warning ?

"Although the phasing of Backlog is more back-ended than expected, existing satellites are expected to be full at current run rate in 2016"


VOLVO
10 Oct'12 - 07:32 - 10807 of 10829

...........profit warning lol, just deferred.

Did you miss that Hylas2 is fully operational with 26pc more capacity than expected.

Or the order book is up 150pc.

Nope confident with my holding here.

These satelites will be cash cows for years.

VOLVO
10 Oct'12 - 07:34 - 10808 of 10829

Not many negatives there.

Commenting, John Brackenbury, CBE, Avanti Chairman said:

"This has been a year of very strong growth for Avanti. The momentum of launching our second satellite in as many years to expand coverage to a total of 53 countries has created very significant demand. This is now evidenced in our contract backlog which grew by 57% in the year. Within the emerging markets that Avanti serves our flexible and resilient technology is winning business from customers who urgently need reliable, high quality communications.

"The formal launch of service today on HYLAS 2 over Africa and the Middle East gives us access to markets showing high economic and structural growth in demand for telecoms services. We look forward to the continued development of Avanti with growing confidence."

greengiant
10 Oct'12 - 07:37 - 10809 of 10829

Volvo,

As a very long term holder, this also reads as a profit warning to me. They are only looking to be full in 2016 which is another 4 years, add on the 18 months they have been selling capacity means that they have overshot all their targets for full capacity.

The 26% extra is nice, however, these satellites were meant to be filled by 2015 by the company's own estimates. Does increase risk slightly, but still looks undervalued. However, I would expect a drop today on these results.

gg

[superg1] 10/10/2012 08:34

Gorv

I was just a quick guesstimate. Cost of sales plus running costs plus debt payments.

hence the 'at least' comment.

I haven't looked buy I would imagine some of the cost increases are weighted towards H2. So the actual full year coming will be higher costs.

Then of course 2013 only has 6/7 months payments, 2014 will be somewhere between £60m to £80m costs overall, it seems.

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 08:30

mjcf

those were my thoughts

[cestnous] 10/10/2012 08:28

Miti and scientology are robson incarnations. I suggest the filter button.

[mjcferguson] 10/10/2012 08:26

22% increase in hylas2 capacity more than makes up for any slight delay in revenue build up.

[nugacity] 10/10/2012 08:22

volvo - you have called this perfectly these last 2 days - if you are a fool there is no hope for some of us.

I have just topped up @ £3.03 whilst expecting to pay £3.70 or more.
Fools like us it seems :O)

[rogerbridge] 10/10/2012 08:22

Have added today because I have a long term timescale. This will seem a bargain in a couple of years even if there are a few bumps along the way.

[johncsimpson] 10/10/2012 08:20

VOLVO 10 Oct'12 - 08:08 - 10820 of 10821

miti only time will tell. Got another 10k at 299p for the SIPP

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How exactly did you do that?